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July 4th weather


SACRUS
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9 days away.  12z guidance

ECM would imply cut off and rain Jul 2-3 before clearing on the 4th and warming up the rest of the week.

GFS has the cut off further into the Ohio valley much more west than the ECM.  its a matter of the western atlantic ridge pulsing and if the front is stuck west or closes off and slides east into the area.

 

Right now looking warm and potentially stormy but id side more with the gfs or middle ground with worst of the steady rains west of the area,

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On 6/22/2021 at 8:12 PM, uncle W said:

1978 was about as bad as it gets for July 4th...highs in the low 60's with light rain all day...the Poconos were about 10 degrees cooler...next year in 1979 it was even cooler...

I liked July 4, 2010....101 degrees at JFK but very low humidity ;)  three out of four degrees were 100+

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8 days away 

ECM and GFS have the W Atlantic ridge backing east between 7/2  - 7/5 and with it a subsequent front and possible cut off low.  Timing to be narrowed down as these ridges can be stubborn to retreat and hung up front tendencies.  OH Valley and GL area look to be the wettest but front will need to clear by some point and right now at this 8 day range both models show the brunt of the rain and showers 7/2-7/3 and Sunday the fourth drying out.

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12z ECM continues to show the front coming through Fri - Sat as the ridge is tugged east with rain Fri and Sat.  GFS seems to be trending slower with the front and now has rain in two parts Sat and Sin night (late) and monday.  Still plenty of time to track this front. Otherwise looking warm but stormy

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12z ECM has brunt of rain Thu-Fri with storms and rain along the main front, then unstable as cut off ULL closes over PA and bring showers.  May be able to salvage fireworks as the rain tapers off later in the moring / early afternoon, but a far cry from the true summer heat / beach weather we are currently experiencing.  Monday the 5th looks much nicer then back to the heat by Tue

 

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12z ECM / GFS continue with theme of improving second haf of the weekend for the Fourth and Monday (observed).  Still a bit unsettled Sun but looking like scattered showers earlier and improving throughout the day.

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Forecast coming into closer view and shorter range but still a bit unsettled.  Saturday looking cloudy/cool with some light rain and scattered showers.  Sunday looks improved but would not rule out stray lght showers/rain AM.  improving greatly as the day goes on with breaks of sun.  Back to the frying pan Monday for the fith (observed day)

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On 6/12/2016 at 9:26 AM, SACRUS said:

With just about 3 weeks to go the holiday will slowly start showing up on some long range forecasts

Past July 4th's  

 

Year....21..20...19...18...17...16...15...14...13...12....11....10...09...08....07....06...05....04...03...02...01...00...99...98...97...96...95..94...93
 EWR:.84..87...89...89...88...84...79...76...91...97...92...101...83...81....73...89...80...87...94...100...81....88...99...86...88...72...84..86..97
 LGA:...79..88...93...84...87...86...75...74...91....95...88....98....81...80....73...92...82...83...93...98....81....84...95...86...87...73...84..83..92
 TTN:...79..89...91...91...86...82...75...75...84....88...95....99....81...80....74...89...84...89...92...97....82....87...99...85...84...73...81..83..92
 JFK:...75..85....97...86...85...82...80...76....84...89...86....101...83...82....72...86..78...79...92...99....75....81...97...82...89...74...80..83..96
 NYC:..77.. 87...90...86...85...84...75...74...87....92...86....96....79...78....71...87...83...82...92...96....79....84...96...84...85...71...84..86..95

Latest guidance 

Euro has heat just prior to the Jul 4th for the Fri-Sun (weekend 7/1-7/3) then a bit cooler but overall drier look for the 4th.

GFS less hot more normal looking.  

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Euro a bit warmer/hot now the weekend with extension into Jul 4th, GFS a bit cooler but warm / seasonal normal overall the weekend and into the 4th.   Will hone in as we get closer.

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4th of July :  06Z 6/25 GFS has cool front clearing through Sat night (7/2) into Sun (73) setting up a nice Monday 4th of July. while the 6/25 00z  ECM is slower and arrives Sun (7/3) lingering into the 4th of July.  Will need to work out those details/timing. 

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4th Of July:  12Z Euro has front coming through Sat (7/2) night into Sun (7/3) after heat Thu (6/30) - Sat (7/2). Euro now with storms on the 4th as well with front slow to pass through.  WIll see how it progresses. 18Z GFS much drier for the fourth with the brunt of the storms Sat evening / Sun morning.

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6/26 00z EURO : Thu (6/30) June closes hot with the start of the seasons first heat wave/ hat trick, for most, especially in the heat locations.  Fri (7/1) and Sat (7/2) heat peaks we see >18c 850s perhaps near 20C before a cold front comes through Saturday overnight (7/2) into Sunday (7/3).  Models have a kinder, drier and sunnier July 4th now, with 80s and great weather.   Sunday (7/3) would be the stormy not so beachy day.

GFS similar theme moves the front through slowly on Sunday (7/3) and clear out for a gorgeous July 4th.

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6/26 12Z:

 

Euro: continues with a hot Thu (6/30) - Sat (7/2) with front passing late evening and into Sun (7/3)  Front clears through, Euro still shows some spotty showers/tstorms on the Fourth but it looks mainly dry as of today.

 

GFS: continues with Heat Thu - Sat PM with quicker passage of the front Sat evening into Sun Am.  Clear by Sunday evening and a dry / warm fourth of July.  

We'll see how we go it is a matter of the front and how quickly and offshore it can get. 

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6/27 00Z Euro / 06z GFS

 

 Heatwave commences Thu (6/30) to close June and open the long weekend.  850s >16c by Thu (6/30), then >18c Fri (7/1) and Sat (7/2) ahead of the cold front. Perhaps a mid 90s and some upper 90s in the warm spots Fri and Sat, pending on clouds arrival.  

The front comes through Sat evening and into Sunday (7/3) morning.  Could be some decent rains in the storms as it looks now, we shall see how it goes.  Should see clearing out Sunday and cooler down towards normal.  4th looks mainly dry and warm (near normal).  Wouldnt rule out a spotty showere here and there.  By Tue (7/5) it looks like we could see the warm spots grab 90 or near 90 and continue Wed (7/6) and Thu (7/7).  A bit out there but it looks like the Florida kinda setup warm-hot but possible shower/pop storms type of pattern the middle of next week. 

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6/27 12 Euro / 18z GFS

Honing in on the timing of the front and any lingering showers Sunday will be key.  But Heat looks to kick in Thu (6/30) peak Fri (7/1) and Sat (7/2) ahead of the front.  Storms/front Sat evening into Sunday.  clearing Sunday pm - cooler - near normal.  The fourth looks mainly dry and warm mid - upper 80s, stray shot at 90 in the hot spots.  Could be popup shower. Overall, Fri-Sat / Mon the best days Sat evening / Sunday cloud / storms.  Sunday depends on timing of the front could be similar to today 6 hours advanced meaning it could clear by 3pm

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6/28 00z Euro / 06 GFS.

Heat starts Thu (6/30) strong heat by Fri (7/1) and Sat (7/2).  Front comes through Saturday evening into Sunday.  Sunday a toss up day, depending on how long the front lingers but it looks similar to yesterday a bit quicker, so clearing would be mid afternoon rather than the evening.

 

4th of July looking great warm and mainly dry area wide, mid - upper 80s, perhaps a stray 90.  Tue the 5th looks more the same sunny and warm upper 80s / low 90s.  

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6/28 July 4th weekend 

Fri: Sunny mid / upper 90s
Sat: Partly cloudy upper 80s/low 90s.  Clouds storms arrive in the later afternoon/evening.
Sun: Cloudy early with storms . Front looks to clear the area in the afternoon, so could see clearing in the second half of the afternoon 3pm on onwards.  low 80s

Mon July 4th:  Looks mainly dry and sunny , warm upper 80s / low 90s.

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No major changes on the overnight 00z or  early morning 06z forecasts.

Thu (6/30) - Fri (7/1): Sunny hot low - mid (some upper 90s on Friday)
Sat (7/2):  Starts off hot, then front comes through in the late afternoon / evening.  Storms through the overnight.
Sun (7/3); looks much similar to this past Monday, but should clear out by the afternoon with scattered storms.
Fourth of July:  Sunny, warm, isolated early morning storm.  Upper 80s / low 90s.

 

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33 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs brings in rain Friday night now and has showers Saturday and sunday

looks like a bunch of little waves that the models are going to struggle with until the day of

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Definately an increase in precipitation for the upcoming holiday weekend especially on the 18z GFS. Showers and thunderstorms possible Friday night thru at least a portion of Sunday. There could be some heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding especially on Saturday which the NWS has begin to highlight in their discussions. 

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23 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Definately an increase in precipitation for the upcoming holiday weekend especially on the 18z GFS. Showers and thunderstorms possible Friday night thru at least a portion of Sunday. There could be some heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding especially on Saturday which the NWS has begin to highlight in their discussions. 

The ground surface up this way is dry and rock hard. Any heavy rain will just runoff. People camping this holiday weekend should keep an eye out for possible flash flooding conditions especially the camping areas along the Delaware River. 

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Front timing moving up making Saturday the cloudy/stormier day.  Euro still stubbornly slower but most other forecasts have front pushing through Saturday day and through and into the overnight, clearing Sunday.  Fourth of July is warm/ dry (stray pop up storm, NE) upper 80s / low 90s.

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1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

Front timing moving up making Saturday the cloudy/stormier day.  Euro still stubbornly slower but most other forecasts have front pushing through Saturday day and through and into the overnight, clearing Sunday.  Fourth of July is warm/ dry (stray pop up storm, NE) upper 80s / low 90s.

Thanks for the updates, anything on how much QPF?

looks like Upton has maybe up to 0.50 and WPC 5-7 day QPF maps have backed off a little.

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Start of the Fourth of July weekend (long) will be  hot one today. 

Friday (7/1) Looks mainly dry through the early evening.  Highs Low / mid 90s perhaps some touch upper 90s in the hot spots.  Some scattered storms later this evening and overnight into --

Saturday (7/2) : front approaches, some breaks of sun could push temps to 90, but plenty of scattered and then widespread showers and storms later in the day.  Looks to continue into the overnight and -

Sun (7/3)  Storms/showers end as front clears the area.  Should clear by the afternoon.  Warm mid/upper 80s, perhaps few warm spots in NE and central NJ touch 90.

Fourth of July: Sunny, warm upper 80s / low 90s.  Great day.

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