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SACRUS

July 4th weather

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For now skies clearing up so the brunt of the holiday weekend should be very nice.

 

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Turning out to be a bust of a holiday weekend. Yesterday was 77F and mostly cloudy here, and today is cloudy yet again with upper 70s. Tomorrow now looks mostly cloudy. So much for the beautiful, sunny stretch.

Highs in the 70's with dew points around 50 is the definition of beautiful in the summer.

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Why aren't the fireworks near Battery Park instead of the East River where you have so many more obsticales?

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Why aren't the fireworks near Battery Park instead of the East River where you have so many more obsticales?

more people can view them further north.    plus for TV purposes you have the skyline as the background

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Highs in the 70's with dew points around 50 is the definition of beautiful in the summer.

I'm with you. It's been sunny and 70s here both days and that's perfect for outdoor activities. Who wants to sit on the deck sweating with 70 dews, I don't get. People who still live at home with their parents and don't worry about paying to have the central AC going constantly I guess.

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more people can view them further north. plus for TV purposes you have the skyline as the background

But at least people can go to battery park and enjoy themselves. The Hudson has all that park property along the West side highway. From battery park you would have great views from Staten Island, Brooklyn and NJ.

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That time of year as the 4th comes into view on the longer range guidance.

 

EC/GFS indicating a back and forth pattern so timing between heat and storm will be the key here.  Overall appears closer to avg but pending on storms and ridge (rebuilding) could see some sneaky heat.   More to come as we get into range

 

 

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On 6/16/2017 at 11:35 AM, SACRUS said:

That time of year as the 4th comes into view on the longer range guidance.

 

EC/GFS indicating a back and forth pattern so timing between heat and storm will be the key here.  Overall appears closer to avg but pending on storms and ridge (rebuilding) could see some sneaky heat.   More to come as we get into range

 

 

Honestly, we're not going to know anything until 2-3 before the 4th. Last year leading up to it everyone was touting warm and sunny conditions all weekend. Turned out to be crappy, cloudy and rainy. The previous 2 years to that were in the 70's with Hurricane Arthur just offshore in 2014. It's all nice and good to be optimistic if you want hot and sunny weather but going by our luck with Memorial Day and this general unsettled pattern we're in I'm expecting some type of rain but we just won't know anything for weeks from now 

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8 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Honestly, we're not going to know anything until 2-3 before the 4th. Last year leading up to it everyone was touting warm and sunny conditions all weekend. Turned out to be crappy, cloudy and rainy. The previous 2 years to that were in the 70's with Hurricane Arthur just offshore in 2014. It's all nice and good to be optimistic if you want hot and sunny weather but going by our luck with Memorial Day and this general unsettled pattern we're in I'm expecting some type of rain but we just won't know anything for weeks from now 

Forecast will certainly come more into view as we get within a day or two.  Still worth tracking that weekend holiday

 

Latest guidance shows transient trough lifting give or take 2nd or 3rd giving way to a warm/humid Tue (7/4).

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On July 3, 2016 at 5:09 PM, NJwx85 said:
On July 3, 2016 at 4:06 PM, Brian5671 said:

more people can view them further north. plus for TV purposes you have the skyline as the background

But at least people can go to battery park and enjoy themselves. The Hudson has all that park property along the West side highway. From battery park you would have great views from Staten Island, Brooklyn and NJ.

People still watch fireworks from Battery Park and Brooklyn. Jersey city began doing their own fireworks show a few years ago when the Macy's firework show was moved from the Hudson River back to the East River. They go off at the same time and are just as long in duration. It's pretty cool watching both from jersey go off at the same time. 

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6/19

 

GFS/ECM out to 360 hours and similar theme of trough lifting out (perhaps between troughs).  Warmer - hot pushing in from the southwest.  We'll see how it progresses.

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310 hours away

ECM/GFS continue to show back/forth pattern and 7/3-7/5 warm-ish as trough is lifting out and flow goes WSW.

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17 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

310 hours away

ECM/GFS continue to show back/forth pattern and 7/3-7/5 warm-ish as trough is lifting out and flow goes WSW.

I wonder when we'll get that big pulse of heat that is happening in the Desert SW right now.  That was in the Near East at the end of May so if it continues eastward we should have near record temps sometime in the middle of July.

 

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Latest guidance continues the back and forth theme troughs lifting out and heights rising every 2-4 days with warm-normal-below-warm.  As it looks now 7/2 - 7/5 looks to time with warmer push.  Precip chances TBD but looking near to slightly above normal - wouldnt shock me to see upper 80s/low 90s.

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Still 260 hrs out but overall theme on the longer range guidance remains with sw flow and warmer push between 7/2-7/5.   Timing of front/storms will need to be worked out but both gfs and ecm show normal/above normal temops.

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Looking  like a very decent day mid/upper 80s with slight chance of overnight showersm(after midinight).  All in all next Thu (7/6) looks the westtest day.

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On 6/12/2016 at 9:26 AM, SACRUS said:

Year...17...16...15...14...13...12....11....10...09...08....07....06...05....04...03...02...01...00...99...98...97...96...95...94....93
 EWR:.88...84...79...76...91...97...92...101...83...81....73...89...80...87...94...100...81....88...99...86...88...72...84...86...97
 LGA:..87...86...75...74...91....95...88....98....81...80....73...92...82...83...93...98....81....84...95...86...87...73...84...83...92
 TTN:..86...82...75...75...84....88...95....99....81...80....74...89...84...89...92...97....82....87...99...85...84...73...81...83...92
 JFK:...85...82...80...76....84...89...86....101...83...82....72...86..78...79...92...99....75....81...97...82...89...74...80...83...96
 NYC:..85...84...75...74...87....92...86....96....79...78....71...87...83...82...92...96....79....84...96...84...85...71...84...86...95

 

As of now latest longer range guidance hinting at a warm / muggy pattern.  mid. upper 80s.  Will track the forecast here.

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As advertised on subsequent guidance - July looks to open hotter than its been since 2010 or 2002. 2012 too?

 

EWR 2012 /  2002 / 2010

 

July - 2002 - EWR.JPG

July - 2010 - ewr.JPG

jul - 2012 - ewr.JPG

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On 6/12/2016 at 9:26 AM, SACRUS said:

With just about 3 weeks to go the holiday will slowly start showing up on some long range forecasts

Past July 4th's  

 

Year....18...17...16...15...14...13...12....11....10...09...08....07....06...05....04...03...02...01...00...99...98...97...96...95...94....93
 EWR:..89...88...84...79...76...91...97...92...101...83...81....73...89...80...87...94...100...81....88...99...86...88...72...84...86...97
 LGA:...84...87...86...75...74...91....95...88....98....81...80....73...92...82...83...93...98....81....84...95...86...87...73...84...83...92
 TTN:..91...86...82...75...75...84....88...95....99....81...80....74...89...84...89...92...97....82....87...99...85...84...73...81...83...92
 JFK:...86...85...82...80...76....84...89...86....101...83...82....72...86..78...79...92...99....75....81...97...82...89...74...80...83...96
 NYC:..86...85...84...75...74...87....92...86....96....79...78....71...87...83...82...92...96....79....84...96...84...85...71...84...86...95

About 26 days away and tracking should begin soon enough.

Latest GFS and ECM showing some elevated heights into the east to open July.  Thinking, similar to last year and 17 we are on our way to open July with a warming pattern shift.

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I was a baby in 1949 and it is still the hottest July 4th on record...1978 was the coolest with a high of 62 and rain falling...1986 was the coolest...two days later it was 98 degrees...1981 is the wettest with a rainy fireworks night...

July 4th almanac for NYC...

Highest max. Lowest max. Highest min. Lowest min. Max. Precipitation.
102 in 1949....62 in 1978....81 in 2002....55 in 1986....1.76" in 1981
..99 in 1919....64 in 1941....79 in 1999....57 in 1938....1.20" in 1872
..98 in 1966....68 in 1909....78 in 1876....58 in 1882....1.20" in 1895
..97 in 1911....69 in 1895....78 in 1908....58 in 1909....1.19" in 1978
..97 in 1955....70 in 1882....78 in 1974....58 in 1978....1.11" in 1967
..96 in 1999....70 in 1954....78 in 1983....58 in 1979....1.06" in 1906
..96 in 2002....71 in 2007....77 in 2006....59 in 1963....1.00" in 1889
..96 in 2010
..96 in 1898.

1872...

http://bklyn.newspap.../image/50350422

1895 storm...

http://bklyn.newspap.../image/50410949

1906...

http://bklyn.newspap.../image/53874183

1949 heat...

http://bklyn.newspap...image/57072676/

http://bklyn.newspap.../image/57072686

1919 heat...

http://bklyn.newspap...image/55306748/

1911 heat wave...

http://bklyn.newspap...image/53944070/
1939...
http://www.nycsubway...erl/show?113363

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1 hour ago, uncle W said:

 

I was a baby in 1949 and it is still the hottest July 4th on record...1978 was the coolest with a high of 62 and rain falling...1986 was the coolest...two days later it was 98 degrees...1981 is the wettest with a rainy fireworks night...

July 4th almanac for NYC...

Highest max. Lowest max. Highest min. Lowest min. Max. Precipitation.
102 in 1949....62 in 1978....81 in 2002....55 in 1986....1.76" in 1981
..99 in 1919....64 in 1941....79 in 1999....57 in 1938....1.20" in 1872
..98 in 1966....68 in 1909....78 in 1876....58 in 1882....1.20" in 1895
..97 in 1911....69 in 1895....78 in 1908....58 in 1909....1.19" in 1978
..97 in 1955....70 in 1882....78 in 1974....58 in 1978....1.11" in 1967
..96 in 1999....70 in 1954....78 in 1983....58 in 1979....1.06" in 1906
..96 in 2002....71 in 2007....77 in 2006....59 in 1963....1.00" in 1889
..96 in 2010
..96 in 1898.

1872...

http://bklyn.newspap.../image/50350422

1895 storm...

http://bklyn.newspap.../image/50410949

1906...

http://bklyn.newspap.../image/53874183

1949 heat...

http://bklyn.newspap...image/57072676/

http://bklyn.newspap.../image/57072686

1919 heat...

http://bklyn.newspap...image/55306748/

1911 heat wave...

http://bklyn.newspap...image/53944070/
1939...
http://www.nycsubway...erl/show?113363

My hottest was 100° in 2010 and lowest 51° in 1986.

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12 hours ago, doncat said:

My hottest was 100° in 2010 and lowest 51° in 1986.

fake news covering the day...

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5 hours ago, uncle W said:

fake news covering the day...

I remember that 51 degrees. I was on the roof of my Red Hook/Cobble Hill row house watching the fire works around lLiberty Island. I was freezing, it felt a lot colder, with the breeze, then 51. Frank Sinatra was part of the night celebration. I look at all the pleasure boats and every day folk close into the festivities. With today’s sad reality it probably could never be reproduced. Restrictive protective measures would have to be in effect. Thanks for the memory, Unc.

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36 minutes ago, rclab said:

I remember that 51 degrees. I was on the roof of my Red Hook/Cobble Hill row house watching the fire works around lLiberty Island. I was freezing, it felt a lot colder, with the breeze, then 51. Frank Sinatra was part of the night celebration. I look at all the pleasure boats and every day folk close into the festivities. With today’s sad reality it probably could never be reproduced. Restrictive protective measures would have to be in effect. Thanks for the memory, Unc.

That would've been the morning low though. Still made it up to upper 70s low 80s that day though would've been a bit cool by fireworks time

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I was on the roof of the building my city agency occupied on July 4, 1986.   This was the Battery Maritime Building ( now being made a hotel?),[@27:53 in ABC Part 1-bottom right, green patch] where you get the Governors Island Ferry.

Mayor Koch and the Commissioner(s) were just below me in the Comm's. Off.    A police security detail was with us on the roof, and yes, I was wearing a sweat shirt against a ne. wind.

But it was 98* a few days later.

July 4, 1999 had 101* ×2 around that time.   A TS that came early, near Noon, one day that weekend sent the big crowd home and I had a hot, wet beach for myself---I had waited it out in the men's room near me. Lol

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On 6/16/2019 at 4:20 PM, Stormlover74 said:

That would've been the morning low though. Still made it up to upper 70s low 80s that day though would've been a bit cool by fireworks time

Your right it wasn’t 51degrees at the time of the celebration. It had, I believe, dropped to 55 degrees by midnight. With a stiff breeze on the roof at those temperatures it felt cold. This year with the Macy’s display around the Brooklyn Bridge I may give it another go. 33 years later. The sycamores are taller but I should still have a decent view, Thart is, if I don’t fall off. As always ..

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