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bluewave

2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

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Ukie further east than the 12z run

Goodnight

Not a good trend tonight if you want to see a storm up here in the Northeast.

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28 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

06z GFS says we do sandy again lol

Except it's 60mb weaker and landfalls near Ocean City, MD. 

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The EPS mean is tucked in closer to the coast than the OP Euro. Has stronger blocking to the northeast so the system is less progressive.

 

ps2png-atls09-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-aptxKY.png

 

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No point in getting too detailed at this range because it might be completely different next run but the 06z GFS has 50-65kt 10m winds all through SNJ, DE and E MD. 30-40kt winds make it up here too and it lasts an extended period of time.

image.png

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NWS forecast for holiday weekend does not contain the words Rain, Wind or unusual tides for NYC.  Which models are they using?  GFS getting no weighting perhaps!

 

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3 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

NWS forecast for holiday weekend does not contain the words Rain, Wind or unusual tides for NYC.  Which models are they using?  GFS getting no weighting perhaps!

 

Uncertainty 

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It's actually believable that this gets stuck somewhere near the MA coast with such a strong block to the N and NE.

eps_z500a_exnamer_25.png

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21 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

NWS forecast for holiday weekend does not contain the words Rain, Wind or unusual tides for NYC.  Which models are they using?  GFS getting no weighting perhaps!

 

too far out.   Still 5 days away.  I would not make mention of it until later today at the earliest, wait for another suite or 2 of models.

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27 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

NWS forecast for holiday weekend does not contain the words Rain, Wind or unusual tides for NYC.  Which models are they using?  GFS getting no weighting perhaps!

 

Actually the forecast discussions from both Mt.Holly and Upton mentioned our weekend weather would be dependent upon the eventual track of the current TD 9 once it nears our area.

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Even if what's left of TD9 passes well East the rip currents are going to be significantly bad this weekend. 

And that might be the best case scenario on the table currently. 

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57 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It's actually believable that this gets stuck somewhere near the MA coast with such a strong block to the N and NE.

eps_z500a_exnamer_25.png

Yes, it's certainly plausible. Will want to watch the strength of that surface HP. Many get caught focusing on the SLP of the storm, without factoring in the synoptic scale gradient. For the northeast, the latter is more important in terms of net impact.

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4 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

If that were to happen... obviously a BIG IF... what implications would that be for us?

Windy and rainy?

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5 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

If that were to happen... obviously a BIG IF... what implications would that be for us?

 

Hvy rain , rip currents for a week  , beach erosion . 

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7 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

How significant would the wind be in that solution?

Way too early to say anything about wind or rain #'s at this point. Expect tropical storm or nor'easter like conditions should something like this occur. That said, climo says something like this is more likely to happen in October or November, not in early September. 

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8 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

How significant would the wind be in that solution?

As per 6z , but a little early  .

 

gfs_mslp_wind_neus_18.png

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8 minutes ago, WaPo said:

Way too early to say anything about wind or rain #'s at this point. Expect tropical storm or nor'easter like conditions should something like this occur. That said, climo says something like this is more likely to happen in October or November, not in early September. 

 

8 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

As per 6z , but a little early  .

 

gfs_mslp_wind_neus_18.png

Agreed a little early... just wanted to get sorta an idea of what we could encounter... could be a nasty later part of the holiday weekend which kinda sucks.

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19 hours ago, PB GFI said:

EURO

 

Top winds at 0z  8/30

landfall 40 kts gusts to 63 kts  998 MB 

vs

Top winds at 12z  8/30

landfall 58 kts gusts to 84 kts  982 MB 

 

 

Top winds at 0z  8/31.

landfall 64 kts gusts to 102 kts  980 MB

 

The EURO is continuing to show slight strengthening for 3 runs in a row as it makes landfall in FLA .

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Still TD9 for the 11AM advisory

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
1000 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

The system is producing vigorous deep convection, but there is
little organization to the overall cloud pattern.  Using the Dvorak
rules, a bursting but disorganized convective pattern would indicate
little change in strength.  The intensity is held at 30 kt pending
new observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft in a few
hours. 

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