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2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N


bluewave

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1 hour ago, Hoth said:

You think he'd be this dismissive of a nor'easter threat shown at 160+ hours?

 

2 hours ago, Drz1111 said:

This is a bad post, maybe the worst of posts.  There is still a substantial risk of a Florida LF.  Jesus, you'd think people never tracked tropical systems before.

Lighten up, it's just weather... and btw, I'd LOVE to here your thoughts on how this poses a "substantial risk for Florida LF?... 

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8 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

 

Lighten up, it's just weather... and btw, I'd LOVE to here your thoughts on how this poses a "substantial risk for Florida LF?... 

Here's the simplest answer:  The average track error for N. Atlantic hurricane forecasts at 120hrs is ~230 miles.  This is a tougher than average forecast given that it's October and it involves interaction with the midlatitude westerlies.  The models have the storm coming WELL within 230 miles of S. Florida.  There is a substantial risk of a Florida landfall.

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6 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

Here's the simplest answer:  The average track error for N. Atlantic hurricane forecasts at 120hrs is ~230 miles.  This is a tougher than average forecast given that it's October and it involves interaction with the midlatitude westerlies.  The models have the storm coming WELL within 230 miles of S. Florida.  There is a substantial risk of a Florida landfall.

Another thing is that this storm is still a week away and a lot of things can happen within a week.

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15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

This is too strong and to far south to effect us. Way out to sea this will go 

Not if it's captured. Now the models at 12z and bringing in the trough more faster and slowing down the storm. Possible capture possible? GFS,CMC,Navgem think so.

This storm is now over 170 hours out if it would hit up here.

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11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

GEFS ensembles look west looking at the spaghetti plots. Looks like quite a few members have Mathew making landfall on the Carolina coast and then bring it North. Some are still East of the OP and OTS. Overall, a better look.

Possible capture taking place?

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3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

At this point a capture the only way this can come back west but that's very tricky to setup, the positioning/timing/strength of the trough and Matthew all have to line up. If anything's off then it'll simply get kicked OTS, which remains the most likely option. 

A capture or trough interaction is the only way you can ever get a system to come this far North without becoming embedded in the Westerlies. This is very much a thread the needle situation, however the steering currents should be weak while Mathew is off the FL coast thanks to the strong blocking in place.

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

A capture or trough interaction is the only way you can ever get a system to come this far North without becoming embedded in the Westerlies. This is very much a thread the needle situation, however the steering currents should be weak while Mathew is off the FL coast thanks to the strong blocking in place.

I was about to say the same thing.  Once you get north of around the latitude of Wilmington, NC, trough interaction is the only way to keep a storm from recurving.  There's a reason why EC landfalls are so rare (as a percentage of total hurricanes).

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Just now, Drz1111 said:

I was about to say the same thing.  Once you get north of around the latitude of Wilmington, NC, trough interaction is the only way to keep a storm from recurving.  There's a reason why EC landfalls are so rare (as a percentage of total hurricanes).

This is why you typically see storms make it up here either early or towards the end of the season, when the wave lengths are longer and a greater chance of phasing and trough interaction exists. 

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