moneypitmike Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 lol whatever that means. Isn't his forecast for HFD proper? I think that's anywhere 5-10 miles north of LIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Yup, Greater implications of -NAO/-AO trends than originally thought. Per an ensemble approach, persistence of ridging across W Europe into Greenland buckles the upstream pattern. Looking at prolonged setup of favorable troughing with H5 heights 1 to 2 standard deviations below average for early June over the NE CONUS validating the 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day Climate Prediction Outlooks of cooler, unsettled weather averaged over the aforementioned timeframes. Such outcomes begin to emerge Sunday, prevailing through the remainder of the long term forecast period through next weekend the details of which are outlined below. To which -NAO/-AO trends does that author refer? The current GEF-based prognostics show substantial relaxation in both the AO and NAO. So long as that is the case ... a near neutral index measure ... - those correlations to patterns are different in JJA than they are in DJF in the first place. We have to be careful assuming "where we've been" is "where we are going" The NAO, and the shared domain space of AO/NAO (where they overlap), are both typically not handled well by operational runs and their ensembles so using those to assess a D6-10+ is dubious to me. But, that's just imho. If the CPC and CDC have those indices neutralizing, while the PNA is crashing like that ... good luck. I just think NCEP is wrong, if this excerpt is very recently coined. If it is a 4 day old discussion component...okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 2-Day Rainfall map from BTV, but also includes parts of the ALY/GYX/BUF CWA forecasts. Looks like most NWS offices going for a widespread 1-2" of rain with locally 2-3" for the orographic areas that do better with SE flow in the Adirondacks, Greens and Whites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 For you? Wow that seems warm. You forget that in the warm season he loses nearly 1,000 feet of elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 If you ignore 85-90 tomorrow and 20th and on furnace .. Sure Hopefully all are enjoying the upper 80s to near 90F today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Hopefully all are enjoying the upper 80s to near 90F today. I like how he calls you out for ignoring today and after the 20th for warmth, but in doing so he ignores two full weeks of near to below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Hopefully all are enjoying the upper 80s to near 90F today. I topped out at 78. Brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 I like how he calls you out for ignoring today and after the 20th for warmth, but in doing so he ignores two full weeks of near to below normal. lol I think he was saying that to Ginxy but yeah, if its not 85+ then we skip over it. I just love how we somehow end up using temperatures at some of the hottest ASOS locations in New England (BDL and sometimes HFD, use the one that's hotter) as the "discussion" temperatures when the vast majority of folks living in New England will see lower (sometimes much lower) temperatures. A forecast of 85F at BDL turns into a 85-90 degree day for discussion purposes here on the forum lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 lol I think he was saying that to Ginxy but yeah, if its not 85+ then we skip over it. I just love how we somehow end up using temperatures at some of the hottest ASOS locations in New England (BDL and sometimes HFD, use the one that's hotter) as the "discussion" temperatures when the vast majority of folks living in New England will see lower (sometimes much lower) temperatures. A forecast of 85F at BDL turns into a 85-90 degree day for discussion purposes here on the forum lol. I just put on my shawl. The late day shade and wind had kicked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 I topped out at 78. Brutal. I mean it is a warm summery day in SNE...looks like a lot of 78-84F type highs depending on elevation. BDL high listed at 83F at 18z but might sneak higher late this afternoon. Up here its mid-70s with dews near 50F below 1,200ft...just left the office and the high up there was 74F at 1,500ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 lol I think he was saying that to Ginxy but yeah, if its not 85+ then we skip over it. I just love how we somehow end up using temperatures at some of the hottest ASOS locations in New England (BDL and sometimes HFD, use the one that's hotter) as the "discussion" temperatures when the vast majority of folks living in New England will see lower (sometimes much lower) temperatures. A forecast of 85F at BDL turns into a 85-90 degree day for discussion purposes here on the forum lol. Only dewpoints matter where people work and live. EPS keeping that really strong signal for MWN going below 0C around Thursday. Long way to go for their record cold June temp (8oF) but should be well below their normal min in the upper 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 We did hit 80.6F Somehow we survived Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 What's the timing for the rain tomorrow? Will it be raining before sunrise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Only dewpoints matter where people work and live. EPS keeping that really strong signal for MWN going below 0C around Thursday. Long way to go for their record cold June temp (8oF) but should be well below their normal min in the upper 30s. Looking at the MMNV1 records, next Wednesday has a record low of 31F while Thursday has a record low of 20F. 1980 must've had one heck of a cold shot, as that's the record cold for 6/9 with the low of 20F and snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 BOS 17 degrees cooler vs mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 If I were Wiz I'd save my chasing for Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Nice backing off today on cool shot days 8-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Nice backing off today on cool shot days 8-10yea now its 5-7, only low level spinning going on in Ct is on Le Mastiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 yea now its 5-7, only low level spinning going on in Ct is on Le Mastiff Those 70's look frigid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Those 70's look frigid Well let's say the warmer Euro is right. Op and EPS both look about +5 at 850. Let's also assume deep mixing in CAA to 850. Adjusting for BDL's elevation would give a high of about the mid 60s. You know, if we're going to split hairs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Well let's say the warmer Euro is right. Op and EPS both look about +5 at 850. Let's also assume deep mixing in CAA to 850. Adjusting for BDL's elevation would give a high of about the mid 60s. You know, if we're going to split hairs Torch! beach blanket bingo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Well let's say the warmer Euro is right. Op and EPS both look about +5 at 850. Let's also assume deep mixing in CAA to 850. Adjusting for BDL's elevation would give a high of about the mid 60s. You know, if we're going to split hairs Almost impossible with full sun and downsloping to stay in the 60's coastal plain and valley this time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Almost impossible with full sun and downsloping to stay in the 60's coastal plain and valley this time of year That may be true, but it's okay to accept a BN day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 That may be true, but it's okay to accept a BN day.There will be several of them.. But this talk if scarves and 50's and 60's during full sun is silly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 That may be true, but it's okay to accept a BN day. I tried logic yesterday but happy you are taking the baton today. Maybe someone else will try to explain it tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 There will be several of them.. But this talk if scarves and 50's and 60's during full sun is silly No one has mentioned 50s the past three days except you. You tried selling that yesterday. Where are you seeing these highs of 50s under full sun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 There will be several of them.. But this talk if scarves and 50's and 60's during full sun is silly I think a MEX forecast of 64 at ORH would feel a little fall like given the time of year, but that's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 I think a MEX forecast of 64 at ORH would feel a little fall like given the time of year, but that's just me.no beach but man the roosters will.be crowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 no beach but man the roosters will.be crowing It's not often we get a good NW breeze going in June at the course. The 1st will play tough, but a NW wind favors most of the other big dogs in the layout. The chamber is ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 It's not often we get a good NW breeze going in June at the course. The 1st will play tough, but a NW wind favors most of the other big dogs in the layout. The chamber is ready. It should be lovely in the NW upslope regions... don't want to live there late next week. The GFS has the NW flow regions taking the brunt of the below normal departures from daytime clouds/showery/breezy conditions. Airmass is cold enough the p-type product even has a small spec of blue over the High Peaks of the Adirondacks... flurries for Whiteface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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