June Pattern Discussion

[Damage In Tolland]

It's seriously impossible to have an intelligent weather/meteorology discussion with you.

Honestly this stuff gets tiring man. I tried to offer my thoughts on what I see transpiring. If you don't agree then explain why.

[West Point, NY]

Two shoes are going to drop over the next 10-15 days. The CUTOFF next weekend fully happens. Euro all over it again. I bet the ensembles will show it now too. After the cutoff exits, a powerful vortex will dig rapidly SE out of Canada and park itself between New England and Atlantic Canada through the 4th of July and possibly beyond. Heat cancel for New England this summer. Period. This will transpire. Persistence will win. Change to hot regime is not happening for northeast.

You are persistent, I'll give you that. Conventional wisdom is eventually we flip hot this summer. Like someone posted the other day, if we can delay it until July, summers back is kinda broken as days are shortening noticeably by August. Hope you're right anyhow. Wonderful sitting in the gazebo in sweats, enjoying the crisp 68 degree breeze in my gravity chair. No bugs, no drips, great weather..

[FXWX]

We'll respectfully disagree. Once this trough lifts out later this week..it's coast to coast warmth including Canada. When there's LP near Hudson Bay and Canada is well AN..there's simply no mechanism for cooling. That's not to say a cool front doesn't come thru and knock temps back to normal for a day..but the heat would come roaring right back with no cold source region. Once these ridges build over the top.they like to set up shop. Sans July 2013

A

Aren't all forecast disagreements on this forum respectful? As everyone can tell by the number of

comments I have posted, to say I am an infrequent poster is an over-statement and will never post looking for a battle; but yes we are in disagreement with how this month finishes out.

It may be more a matter of semantics or how one meteorologist views the pattern versus how someone else's

take on the evolving pattern. I am in no way calling for a cold pattern to end the month. In fact, I

think the second half of the month averages modestly above normal with the chance for a couple of hot

days; especially in the 20-24th time frame. But in my view the results will not fit my perception of a

true mid/late June hot pattern or torch. I could be wrong and we could end up will a long period of hot

weather but I don't like the average position of the ridge off to our west since it leaves the door open

for Northeast U.S. or eastern Canada troughing on a regular basis over the next 2 weeks. While Canada is warming, any eastern trough (Northeast or Canada)will allow the mixing of eastern Canadian air with any

Midwest or south-central Canadian heat, which will limit hot warm/hot the air mass can be across New

England. And there may well be periods that the troughing is sufficient to completely dominate the flow

and shunt the hot air west to our south. I always pay attention to pattern persistence and until I see

almost universal evidence that the Northeast trough footprint is gone (more likely in early July than mid or late June) I will opt to not go overboard with a call for a long running hot pattern.

Again, I am not calling for colder than normal conditions to dominate mid/late June! I expect it to

average warmer than normal with a couple of hot days tossed in; but does not yet fit my description

of a New England hot pattern for the time of the year.

Of course, I could be wrong; if trends support a more bullish call for heat, I will move in that directionJust not ready to go there yet; as we head into July odds likely increase.

[powderfreak]

It's seriously impossible to have an intelligent weather/meteorology discussion with you.

It's the bias of the +KFS this time of year. What fun is it to allow for the possibility of transient heat mixed with some 70s/50s? We can only mild down to normal in the positive state.

[dendrite]

It's the bias of the +KFS this time of year. What fun is it to allow for the possibility of transient heat mixed with some 70s/50s? We can only mild down to normal in the positive state.

His post itself wasn't even that bad. But you know he is going to weenie and spin things the way he wants depending on the season and you know he isn't looking at much data, nevermind analyzing it. He waits for someone to post and tweet what he wants to hear and runs with it. I used to find it comical, then I became numb to it, now I just find it a waste of everyone's time.

[CoastalWx]

Heat meh.

[powderfreak]

His post itself wasn't even that bad. But you know he is going to weenie and spin things the way he wants depending on the season and you know he isn't looking at much data, nevermind analyzing it. He waits for someone to post and tweet what he wants to hear and runs with it. I used to find it comical, then I became numb to it, now I just find it a waste of everyone's time.

Probably a fair assessment.

[Damage In Tolland]

Aren't all forecast disagreements on this forum respectful? As everyone can tell by the number of

comments I have posted, to say I am an infrequent poster is an over-statement and will never post looking for a battle; but yes we are in disagreement with how this month finishes out.

It may be more a matter of semantics or how one meteorologist views the pattern versus how someone else's

take on the evolving pattern. I am in no way calling for a cold pattern to end the month. In fact, I

think the second half of the month averages modestly above normal with the chance for a couple of hot

days; especially in the 20-24th time frame. But in my view the results will not fit my perception of a

true mid/late June hot pattern or torch. I could be wrong and we could end up will a long period of hot

weather but I don't like the average position of the ridge off to our west since it leaves the door open

for Northeast U.S. or eastern Canada troughing on a regular basis over the next 2 weeks. While Canada is warming, any eastern trough (Northeast or Canada)will allow the mixing of eastern Canadian air with any

Midwest or south-central Canadian heat, which will limit hot warm/hot the air mass can be across New

England. And there may well be periods that the troughing is sufficient to completely dominate the flow

and shunt the hot air west to our south. I always pay attention to pattern persistence and until I see

almost universal evidence that the Northeast trough footprint is gone (more likely in early July than mid or late June) I will opt to not go overboard with a call for a long running hot pattern.

Again, I am not calling for colder than normal conditions to dominate mid/late June! I expect it to

average warmer than normal with a couple of hot days tossed in; but does not yet fit my description

of a New England hot pattern for the time of the year.

Of course, I could be wrong; if trends support a more bullish call for heat, I will move in that directionJust not ready to go there yet; as we head into July odds likely increase.

[/quote

]Thanks for the response John. It's nice when we can discuss weather and why we think so and so will happen, without all the backhanded and snide comments . You've got some great points there

[CT Rain]

His post itself wasn't even that bad. But you know he is going to weenie and spin things the way he wants depending on the season and you know he isn't looking at much data, nevermind analyzing it. He waits for someone to post and tweet what he wants to hear and runs with it. I used to find it comical, then I became numb to it, now I just find it a waste of everyone's time.

 

A Kevin weather post being a waste of time???? No way! 

 

At least his banter posts are entertaining. 

[Michael05192016]

As of 6/14, the 00Z model suite of the major models have zero heat signals for New England. 88 looks the best for the next 10-15 days. 00Z EURO op model still affects LI and New England w/ bad weekend. I would not dismiss a direct impact from closed surface low with gales/rain yet. I think any heat waits until the 2nd-3rd week of July at the earliest if it ever comes at all. I think NYC and its latitude will be the demarcation line between heat and no heat this entire summer. I think Boston will have a cool summer, NYC much hotter and variable at times with MCS thunderstorms frequently. DC and Philly will be inferno for most of the summer, with occasional severe MCS. This is where I think it is going. Does anyone else agree with this? Looks like trough/vortexes will linger in Atlantic Canada and SE Canada for quite awhile and into the first part of the summer.

[HoarfrostHubb]

BOX doesn't seem too enthused about any sort of event this weekend:

Sat night into Mon...
Biggest differences begin here, primarily with the difference
between the ECMWF and most other available guidance, including the
several ECENS members. Phasing cutoff becomes stacked and even
retrogrades from offshore of the DELMARVA, impacting srn New
England with a period of rain, so says the ECMWF. However, strong
ridging will be folding eastward and allowing sfc high pres to
regain control from the N. The ECENS/GEFS and GFS are all more
supportive of this feature controlling the wx. Ensemble
probabilities show very low probs of 0.25 or more of precip
through the entire run. So will continue to lean toward a dry
solution in spite of the consistency of the ECMWF.

[Typhoon Tip]

BOX doesn't seem too enthused about any sort of event this weekend:

Sat night into Mon...

Biggest differences begin here, primarily with the difference

between the ECMWF and most other available guidance, including the

several ECENS members. Phasing cutoff becomes stacked and even

retrogrades from offshore of the DELMARVA, impacting srn New

England with a period of rain, so says the ECMWF. However, strong

ridging will be folding eastward and allowing sfc high pres to

regain control from the N. The ECENS/GEFS and GFS are all more

supportive of this feature controlling the wx. Ensemble

probabilities show very low probs of 0.25 or more of precip

through the entire run. So will continue to lean toward a dry

solution in spite of the consistency of the ECMWF.

 

...yeah, nothing nonsensical in that approach...    

 

however, the 00z did back off on the depth of the cut-off - that miiight just signal the beginning of the end ... a matter of a cycle or two before that small tip topples toward the consensus mass of the other guidance.   we'll see.  i and certainly others have mentioned that the Euro isn't infallible beyond D4 or 4.5 - ish... and can and sometimes does hold onto to erroneous solutions for a few cycles before blowing them up as they pass into the mid range.   we should remember, 2 days ago the Euro had us enveloped in a historic heat wave, with D10 temperatures implicated triple digits and more ... massive Sonoran/Desert plateau plume of 20 to 25C air at 850 everywhere... then, in a single run POOF!  gone ... the model goes from from Hades to 54 F from Portland Main to DCA because of the cut-off seemingly out of nowhere - like, really where from and why?  

 

that's the usually the tell with these global runs.  that sort of continuity break is telling that there are likely to be further variations on a given time range before the given model settles on a consistent idea ... 

 

what actually stood out to me was that regardless of the presents of a rattler-around cut-off inside the ridge ...is/was the ridge its self is getting pummeled by the N-stream on all guidance, limiting the stay of heat even if the cut-off were not involved.  the prior cycles would have us in one of those 5-7 day patience trying torridity deals, but ...this looks like a 2 days of heat then a fropa with the mass of the heat dome then redistributed/rolling back west to the High Plains.  

 

one thing i find alarming are all these closed 600 dm ridge nodes and the shear size of the 594 dm regions ... that's highly unusual and is an under the radar aspect that's not getting attention.   should that 'sync' up with the lower tropospheric conveyor(s) than look out...  

[Cold Miser]

Death drought of 2016 in progress?

[Sugarloaf1989]

Cold Miser, on 14 Jun 2016 - 09:52 AM, said:

Death drought of 2016 in progress?

 

Farmers pacing dry/dusty fields shaking fists angrily at the heavens.

[Dan76]

Farmers pacing dry/dusty fields shaking fists angrily at the heavens.

https://youtu.be/R2F_hGwD26g

[Cold Miser]

https://youtu.be/R2F_hGwD26g

That's Kevin at about 50 seconds in.

[Sugarloaf1989]

The local fields around here (Windsorville, South Windsor) have corn set in that's about 6" tall so far, right about on target. Soil moisture conditions look okay. Dzens farm is busy with Strawberry picking, but they have irrigation.

The first haying of the season is also being done on open farmland around here.

[Typhoon Tip]

...how many times do ya see a closed low aT 580 dm be that controlling ... 

 

in any event, the Euro has backed off now a total of 16 dm in the core of that thing, now also trended pretty clearly more e in line with the other models. 

 

i think what also stands out on this run is what is also evident across the board, and that is that even though that is so ... the total time in the 'big ridge' appeal is reducing anyway... it's just trading off less close-"lie" for more overbearing polar stream. while still breaching 600 dm with a sprawling ridge? ?

 

i'm surprised that aspect alone isn't getting more chatter. 

[CoastalWx]

I'm impressed by that 600DM ridge. They are gonna roast out in Plains and SW. Meanwhile snow in Cascades. Awesome.

[ORH_wxman]

I'm impressed by that 600DM ridge. They are gonna roast out in Plains and SW. Meanwhile snow in Cascades. Awesome.

 

 

Snow levels are pretty low too in the Cascades...pretty nice late season storm. You prob got powder above 6000 feet and a greaser down to 4k.

[beavis1729]

I'm impressed by that 600DM ridge. They are gonna roast out in Plains and SW. Meanwhile snow in Cascades. Awesome.

It will be a bit toasty in Phoenix this weekend…time to fry eggs on the pavement.  Good luck trying to find a single cloud too.  Daily high temp records will easily be broken on Sunday and Monday (the record for both days is 115, set in 1968).  The normal high is 105. 

 

Hottest days on record:

1. 122 on 6/26/1990
2. 121 on 7/28/1995
3. 120 on 6/25/1990
4. 119 on 6/29/2013

 

Friday

Sunny, with a high near 106. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.

 

Friday Night

Clear, with a low around 79. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight.

 

Saturday

Sunny and hot, with a high near 112. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.

 

Saturday Night

Clear, with a low around 84. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northeast after midnight.

 

Sunday

Sunny and hot, with a high near 120. Calm wind becoming west southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.

 

Sunday Night

Clear, with a low around 88. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

 

Monday

Sunny and hot, with a high near 119. East wind around 5 mph becoming west southwest in the afternoon.

[Sugarloaf1989]

ORH_wxman, on 14 Jun 2016 - 3:10 PM, said:

Snow levels are pretty low too in the Cascades...pretty nice late season storm. You prob got powder above 6000 feet and a greaser down to 4k.

 

It's snowing really hard right now at Timberline Lodge. The snow level this morning was 4,700' NWS has 12" + forecast for Palmer @ 8,500'

[powderfreak]

Snow levels are pretty low too in the Cascades...pretty nice late season storm. You prob got powder above 6000 feet and a greaser down to 4k.

Sounds not all that dissimilar to the snow levels we just had...wet snow down to 4,000ft with flakes to 3,300ft...and probably relatively drier accums up at 6,000+ on MWN.

Just without the same level of moisture the Cascades get lol.

[Sugarloaf1989]

powderfreak, on 14 Jun 2016 - 4:28 PM, said:

Sounds not all that dissimilar to the snow levels we just had...wet snow down to 4,000ft with flakes to 3,300ft...and probably relatively drier accums up at 6,000+ on MWN.

Just without the same level of moisture the Cascades get lol.

It's amazing that snow is sticking to pavement at Timberline Lodge with the Mid-June sun directly overhead.

[powderfreak]

It's amazing that snow is sticking to pavement at Timberline Lodge with the Mid-June sun directly overhead.

What elevation is that?

[ORH_wxman]

What elevation is that?

 

I think Timberline lodge is around 6,000 feet.

[ORH_wxman]

Here's the lodge:

 

[BRSno]

Love it! 

[Michael05192016]

Tippy and others... It looks like heat cancel the next 2-3 weeks at least. I wonder if most of Northeast dodges the heat all Summer!!!! "I think so" is a rational guess now.

[Mr. Windcredible!]

I'd have to double check with my parents...but I think my family may have been vacationing in Arizona during that 1990 heat wave. I remember everyone making a big deal of the heat. My parents have a picture of me in front of a digital thermometer reading 117 at our hotel. Lows were barely made it back into the 80s. Of course then we made our way up the Grand Canyon. We spent a night in Flagstaff where it couldn't have been above 70. With the clouds and wind it felt Arctic. My dad made us swim in the unheated pool probably because we bugged him all day...one of the coldest and miserable swimming experiences I can recall...having spent several days in the 90 degree pool water in Phoenix.

It will be a bit toasty in Phoenix this weekend…time to fry eggs on the pavement. Good luck trying to find a single cloud too. Daily high temp records will easily be broken on Sunday and Monday (the record for both days is 115, set in 1968). The normal high is 105.

Hottest days on record:

• 122 on 6/26/1990
• 121 on 7/28/1995
• 120 on 6/25/1990
• 119 on 6/29/2013

Friday

Sunny, with a high near 106. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Friday Night

Clear, with a low around 79. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight.

Saturday

Sunny and hot, with a high near 112. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Saturday Night

Clear, with a low around 84. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northeast after midnight.

Sunday

Sunny and hot, with a high near 120. Calm wind becoming west southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Sunday Night

Clear, with a low around 88. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Monday

Sunny and hot, with a high near 119. East wind around 5 mph becoming west southwest in the afternoon.