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SNE Tropical Weather Discussion - Hurricanes


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Euro run was interesting last night with the remants of 99l.. but still ots.. The storm coming off the west coast of Africa is definitely one to watch for an east coast threat.. just stinks its coming off so far north. Probably will be a recurve but atleast its something to track for now.

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Timing might be everything for 99L.  Assume it develops and moves NW into the Gulf the way we could get moisture up here is wait for the Canadian high to move offshore next weekend and then have the remains of 99L come northeastward in front of the next trough.  Way too far out there to know track, intensity etc.  I would just like to get moisture up here without major damage to anyone in the Gulf or Eastern Seaboard.

Lots to watch for tropical nerds. with 99L, the forming depression moving towards the Carolinas (which should do a hard right) and the system coming off Africa.

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2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Euro run was interesting last night with the remants of 99l.. but still ots.. The storm coming off the west coast of Africa is definitely one to watch for an east coast threat.. just stinks its coming off so far north. Probably will be a recurve but atleast its something to track for now.

heh ... its handling of 99l actually results too perilously close to clipping CC (if not doing so anyway) to say ".. but still ots.."

as far as xxl still over land in western Africa, i was actually surprised that as of this morning it had not yet been designated an Invest already given to the modeling support.  then .. .i looked at the modeling solutions and we're talking 72 hours before the complete emergence off the coast and coherently closing isobaric pattern takes place and well, ...that's well beyond 4th period so there's time.   doesn't matter though - it mostly posterity/recognition where it is; although, unless of course it smartly closes off and goes nuts immediately leaving the coast, such that it poses some concerns for the CV population.  sometimes that does happen... 

anyway, it is intriguing that some 8 cycles in a row of GFS oper. depicts it succeeding not just a west track the whole way, but it even has a slight southerly bias for a couple days worth. in fact, the Euro oper. run some 2,000 naut miles of like exact 'westness' ... .  can this thing make it that 3,000 naut miles without ever really having any imposing force cause a polar-ward tug on its trajectory?  

i was toying with the Science Fiction that Gaston out-gassing may be dumping some latent heat into the surrounding medium, which would build heights and help maintain enough ridge integrity to keep the trades/steering levels that fixed...but who knows.   

   

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Models run to run seem to consistently want CV waves to traverse ITZ and morph into MAJOR intensities some even CAT5's. The past 2 weeks (several runs) I've been wiped off the face the earth.

99L still has potential. I have not written it off. 7H has a nice closed circulation, working with rocket fuel in the Gulf, slacken the shear and get the t-storms co-located with the surface reflection. Could still have a nice little TS recurving into the bend of FL.        

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Even if nothing becomes of all these disturbances . The tropics are "hot" an enthusiasts nirvana. Seasons in season I guess...

I've never given up on 99L, now TD9 soon to be Hermine? A fellow member criticized my comment of possible Hurricane "potential" into Big Bend area. I'd like to sign up for that crystal ball.

The sky today is a beautiful cobalt blue, big puffy Cb's with sct occasional showers out of a sun drenched landscape. Pure tropical atmosphere with a freshening breeze.     

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20 minutes ago, BRSno said:

That huge storm on the 6z GFS though :o

Start the twitter hype!

GFS has had an approaching hurricane in Sept 7 to 10 range for a number of runs now but they go from a recurve to Cuba.  Something to follow however.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_47.png

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5 hours ago, Dan said:

At 00z it was hitting Vero Beach and through central Florida into Georgia.

 

At 18z yesterday it was hitting Louisiana.

 

Crazy shifts in 3 the range of 3 runs.  Typical.

12z it skirts Cuba and goes up the west coast of FL, 18 Z into GA.

It keeps showing up which is the intriguing this in this range.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.pnggfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38.png

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2 hours ago, klw said:

12z it skirts Cuba and goes up the west coast of FL, 18 Z into GA.

It keeps showing up which is the intriguing this in this range.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.pnggfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38.png

 

That is the part I do find intriguing as well.  Especially since I am leaving for Orlando on Monday the 5th and staying til Monday the 12th, with a trip down to Vero Beach on the 10th or 11th.

Fingers crossed I get lucky and see something.

 

 

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Interesting trend on the GFS regarding TD9.  First last nights Euro has it quickly going out to sea well south with the Canadian high moving over us.  The GFS for the last few runs slows down TD9 and has it slowly moving up the coast.  It lets the high move east and then that forces TD9 to turn towards New England and make a close run at us.

 

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30 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Interesting trend on the GFS regarding TD9.  First last nights Euro has it quickly going out to sea well south with the Canadian high moving over us.  The GFS for the last few runs slows down TD9 and has it slowly moving up the coast.  It lets the high move east and then that forces TD9 to turn towards New England and make a close run at us.

 

Here it comes...

image.gif

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a lot of characteristics about these oper. GFS runs we're seeing are consistent with what Ocean and I were discussing a couple weeks ago, re how TC lifting N of ~ the 35 parallel along and/or off the U.S. EC are tending to take on hybrid (if not outright transitioning modes) by the time they are abeam of our latitudes. 

that 12z run is quick a transitioner to a cool/hybrid physical entity..   don't get anyone wrong; those can lash hard.  the "Perfectly stupid named Storm" was hybrid most of the time it was pummeling the New England and upper MA coasts (it wasn't until it was rotating back seaward and out that the eye formed ...etc..) 

anyway,  it's hard for me to get my head around the idea of any TC classically turning right through the key hole and then expressing it's way on up here with the status of the WAR through the period.  other hemispheric markers/typologies are absent, too.   what i do find intriguing is that the models et al are really hinting at doing so, but they keep failing to really tell that story. 

we end up with weird solutions featuring a TC decaying and wobbling around some 200 mi SE of LI like that... which i also think is unlikely as a final reality.  not only that, which system?!  the GGEM has like hornets buzzing around...

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