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SNE Tropical Weather Discussion - Hurricanes


USCAPEWEATHERAF

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4 hours ago, CTFarmer said:

As we transition to La Nina, ONI is currently 0.2 for MJJ (not sure when JJA comes out)- are we headed into a weak La Nina?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

I can't find the post to credit, but someone previously noted that weak La Nina years have featured Irene (2011), Bertha (1996), Gloria(1985), Donna, Carol, 1944 and 1938 storms. Thoughts?

EDIT: Found post:

 

If we do enter a weak Niña by the time the atmosphere responses to the oceanic changes hurricane season will be pretty much done 

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8 hours ago, eekuasepinniW said:

Based upon everything I'm seeing in the models and the fact that this Invest is expected to develop in the Atlantic ocean, this looks like a near carbon copy of 1938, except stronger because of that paper thin layer of extra-warm water just south of Long Island.  

Better cover your tropical garden.  TStorms-a-brewin.

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9 hours ago, eekuasepinniW said:

Based upon everything I'm seeing in the models and the fact that this Invest is expected to develop in the Atlantic ocean, this looks like a near carbon copy of 1938, except stronger because of that paper thin layer of extra-warm water just south of Long Island.  

1938 / White Juan hybrid

total devastation then 2' of snow

 

the weenies will rejoice

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10 hours ago, eekuasepinniW said:

Based upon everything I'm seeing in the models and the fact that this Invest is expected to develop in the Atlantic ocean, this looks like a near carbon copy of 1938, except stronger because of that paper thin layer of extra-warm water just south of Long Island.  

I assumed the 1938 hurricane had a strong trough to our west that yanked it up here very quickly.  Guess I was wrong.  Here is the surface map.  

Untitled.jpg

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8 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Lol at the last page! Ill be surprised if 99l even develops at this point.. 

Waters just of the coast here and in the Bahamas are very warm (we haven't had alot of rain here this summer), and if it does form and tracks over FL south of Lake O it may gain strength because of warm water over everglades 

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27 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I assumed the 1938 hurricane had a strong trough to our west that yanked it up here very quickly.  Guess I was wrong.  Here is the surface map.  

Untitled.jpg

There was a very deep trough over the Appalachians. And the strong Atlantic ridge blocked it from going OTS. So it got funneled due north up the coast between the two

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34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There was a very deep trough over the Appalachians. And the strong Atlantic ridge blocked it from going OTS. So it got funneled due north up the coast between the two

That's what I thought.  I just didn't see it depicted on the surface map.  To get a strong cane into New England it has to race north and not meander over the cooler water up this way.  Right now the water is unusually warm so might be a bit less of a factor than normally.  

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On August 23, 2016 at 3:27 PM, weatherwiz said:

If we do enter a weak Niña by the time the atmosphere responses to the oceanic changes hurricane season will be pretty much done 

Completely agree and I've tried to explain this to people before 

These starters in the middle of summer do nothing for the autumns; primary reason for that is the gradient needs increase in the ambient atm before it can register in the atmosphere -can't get around the physics on that

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Completely agree and I've tried to explain this to people before 

These starters in the middle of summer do nothing for the autumns; primary reason for that is the gradient needs increase in the ambient atm before it can register in the atmosphere -can't get around the physics on that

Except this isn't the middle of the summer. It's very late summer and begins prime cane season..and that's iron clad

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No one is watching and the NHC doesn't even have it as an area of interest but it looks like a tropical depression is forming south of Bermuda.  It looks like it could go west with the ridge of high pressure to its north.  How far west would it bet before a sharp recurve OTS just south of SNE?

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