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June 2016 temperature forecast contest


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Enjoy the Memorial Day weekend and check back in on Tuesday May 31st to enter the June temperature contest ... penalties begin at 06z Wednesday June 1st.

 

As always, predict the departures from 1981-2010 normal values in F deg for these nine locations:

 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

 

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Forecasts for June 2016

 

 

FORECASTER _____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

Stebo _____________________ +2.3 _ +3.3 _ +3.5 ____ +1.7 _ +1.1 _ --1.2 _____ --1.8 _ --2.2 _ --1.1

BKViking __________________ +2.1 _ +2.1 _ +1.8 ____ +1.9 _ +2.4 _ +2.2 _____ +0.6 _ --1.0 _ +1.0

Damage in Tolland ___________+2.0 _ +2.2 _ +1.5 ____ +2.4 _ +1.9 _ +2.0 _____ +3.0 _ +3.0 _ +3.5

Rjay ______________________ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 ____ +4.0 _ +2.0 _ +3.0 _____ +2.5 _ +2.5 _ +3.0

dmillz25 ___________________ +1.8 _ +2.5 _ +2.7 ____ +2.0 _ +2.3 _ +2.4 _____ --1.6 _ --1.2 _ --1.2

Maxim ____________________ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 ____ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ --1.5 ______ 0.0 _ +3.0 _ +4.0

blazess556 _____ (-5%) ______ +1.5 _ +1.3 _ +0.9 ____ +0.7 _ +1.3 _ --0.6 _____ +0.4 _ +0.5 _ +1.7

SD _______________________ +1.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ____ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ --1.0 _____ +0.5 _ +0.5 _ --1.0

Tom ______________________ +1.4 _ +1.6 _ +0.9 ____ +2.3 _ +1.7 _ +0.1 _____ --1.1 _ --0.4 _ --1.2

hudsonvalley21 _____________ +1.3 _ +2.2 _ +2.4 ____ +2.9 _ +1.7 _ +1.8 _____ +0.3 _ +1.2 _ +2.1

 

Consensus ________________ +1.2 _ +1.0 _ +0.9 ____ +0.7 _ +1.4 _ +0.1 _____ +0.6 _ +1.0 _ +1.9

 

wxdude64 _________________ +1.1 _ +1.0 _ +0.8 ____ +0.5 _ +1.1 _ --0.5 _____ +0.6 _ +0.8 _ +1.4

Tenman Johnson ____________ +1.1 _ +0.7 _ +0.5 _____ 0.0 _ +2.2 _ +2.2 _____ --2.3 _ --1.0 _ +2.7

RodneyS ___________________+0.9 _ +0.5 _ +0.7 ____ +0.6 _ +2.4 _ --1.8 _____ +4.0 __ 0.0 _ +0.4

OHweather _________________ +0.7 _ +0.3 _ +0.4 ____ --0.5 _ +1.2 _ +0.9 _____ --0.3 _ +2.0 _ +1.0

wxallannj ___________________+0.5 _ --0.6 _ --0.7 ____ --0.9 _ +0.6 _ +1.1 _____ +1.9 _ +1.5 _ +3.2

DonSutherland.1 _____________+0.3 _ +0.6 _ +1.0 ____ --1.3 _ +1.3 __ 0.0 _____ --0.9 _ +3.2 _ +2.3

 

Normal _____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ______ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

 

ksammut ____________________0.0 _ --0.5 _ --1.2 _____ 0.0 _ +0.8 _ --2.6 _____ +1.4 _ +0.8 _ +0.8

Roger Smith ________________ --0.8 _ --0.3 _ +0.3 ____ --1.3 _ +0.8 _ +0.8 _____ +2.2 _ +2.5 _ +2.9

Mallow _____________________--0.8 _ --0.4 _ --0.4 ____ --1.9 _ +0.9 _ --1.0 _____ +1.2 _ +3.7 _ +3.1

Midlo Snow Maker____________--2.0 _ --2.0 _ --1.9 ____ --1.0 _ --0.6 _ --0.9 _____ +1.0 _ +2.9 _ +3.0

____________________________________________________________________

 

Now that our regular twenty forecasters have entered, consensus is set at median (average of 10th and 11th ranked) and the highest and lowest forecasts are color coded.

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First reports on the anomalies, plus an update on seasonal max temperature so far (the table of entries is posted in the May thread). Edit June 26th, ATL now 100 (max on 25th). Daily countdown to end of month.

 

 

______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

 

Seasonal max __________ 96 ___ 92 ___ 92 _____ 93 ___100 ___ 97 ______ 98 ___ 118 ___ 93 ___ (PDX 100)

 

Anomaly ___ (5d) ______ +4.0 __ +3.1 __ --0.3 ___ +4.2 __ +5.0 __ --6.7 ___ +1.8 __ +7.4 _ +10.9

Anomaly ___ (8d) ______ +3.6 __ +2.1 __ +2.2 ___ +1.7 __ +3.5 __ --4.9 ___ +2.2 __ +7.0 _ +10.4

Anomaly __ (10d) ______ +2.1 __ +0.6 __ +1.1 ___ +1.8 __ +3.4 __ --4.1 ___ +3.3 __ +6.2 __ +7.7

Anomaly __ (12d) ______ +3.0 __ +0.9 __ +0.5 ___ +2.7 __ +4.1 __ --3.4 ___ +3.8 __ +5.0 __ +6.5

Anomaly __ (14d) ______ +2.3 __ +0.2 __ +0.2 ___ +2.9 __ +4.6 __ --2.5 ___ +3.1 __ +4.1 __ +4.8

Anomaly __ (15d) ______ +2.1 __ +0.3 __ +0.7 ___ +3.4 __ +4.6 __ --2.0 ___ +3.1 __ +3.6 __ +4.1

Anomaly __ (16d) ______ +2.1 __ +0.1 __ +0.7 ___ +3.2 __ +4.6 __ --1.5 ___ +3.2 __ +3.2 __ +3.8

Anomaly __ (17d) ______ +1.9 ___ 0.0 __ +0.6 ___ +3.2 __ +4.6 __ --1.2 ___ +3.2 __ +3.1 __ +3.5

Anomaly __ (18d) ______ +1.8 __ +0.1 __ +0.4 ___ +3.2 __ +4.3 __ --0.9 ___ +3.4 __ +3.0 __ +3.2

Anomaly __ (19d) ______ +1.7 __ +0.3 __ +0.4 ___ +3.3 __ +3.9 __ --0.9 ___ +3.9 __ +3.3 __ +2.9

Anomaly __ (20d) ______ +1.8 __ +0.4 __ +0.5 ___ +3.7 __ +3.6 __ --0.8 ___ +3.6 __ +3.7 __ +3.0

Anomaly __ (21d) ______ +1.9 __ +0.7 __ +0.7 ___ +3.7 __ +3.6 __ --0.7 ___ +3.8 __ +3.9 __ +2.8

Anomaly __ (22d) ______ +1.8 __ +0.8 __ +0.8 ___ +3.5 __ +3.6 __ --0.6 ___ +3.7 __ +4.0 __ +2.8

Anomaly __ (23d) ______ +1.7 __ +0.9 __ +0.7 ___ +3.4 __ +3.6 __ --0.6 ___ +3.7 __ +4.2 __ +2.7

Anomaly __ (24d) ______ +1.6 __ +0.9 __ +0.5 ___ +3.2 __ +3.7 __ --0.5 ___ +3.8 __ +4.2 __ +2.5

Anomaly __ (25d) ______ +1.6 __ +0.9 __ +0.3 ___ +3.3 __ +3.9 __ --0.5 ___ +3.7 __ +4.2 __ +2.5

Anomaly __ (26d) ______ +1.4 __ +1.0 __ +0.3 ___ +3.5 __ +3.8 __ --0.4 ___ +3.6 __ +4.2 __ +2.6

Anomaly __ (27d) ______ +1.4 __ +1.0 __ +0.4 ___ +3.7 __ +3.8 __ --0.4 ___ +3.7 __ +4.3 __ +2.8

Anomaly __ (28d) ______ +1.3 __ +0.8 __ +0.5 ___ +3.2 __ +3.8 __ --0.3 ___ +3.7 __ +4.4 __ +2.8

Anomaly __ (29d) ______ +1.1 __ +0.8 __ +0.7 ___ +2.9 __ +3.7 __ --0.3 ___ +3.6 __ +4.3 __ +2.7

 

Actual ____ (30d) ______ +1.0 __ +0.8 __ +0.7 ___ +2.7 __ +3.7 __ --0.3 ___ +3.4 __ +4.0 __ +2.6

 

confirmed end of June values shown color coded. All scoring now updated.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Final Scoring for June 2016

 

 

FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS___east ___ ORD_ATL_IAH____cent ____ TOTAL

 

Tom ______________________ 92 _ 84 _ 96 ____ 272 ____ 92 _ 60 _ 92 _____ 244 ____ 516

SD _______________________ 90 _ 96 _ 94 ____ 280 ____ 76 _ 56 _ 86 _____ 218 ____ 498

 

Consensus ________________ 96 _ 96 _ 96 ____ 288 ____ 60 _ 54 _ 92 _____ 206 ____ 494

 

RodneyS __________________ 98 _ 94 _100____ 292 ____ 58 _ 74 _ 70 _____ 202 ____ 494

wxdude64 __________________98 _ 96 _ 98 ____ 292 ____ 56 _ 48 _ 96 _____ 200 ____ 492

Tenman Johnson ____________98 _ 98 _ 96 ____ 292 ____ 46 _ 70 _ 50 _____ 166 ____ 458

Maxim ____________________ 90 _ 76 _ 74 ____ 240 ____ 86 _ 56 _ 76 _____ 218 ____ 458

blazess556 _________________90 _ 90 _ 96 ____ 276 ____ 60 _ 52 _ 94 _____ 206 _ 482

____________ (-5%) _________86 _ 86 _ 91 ____ 263 ____ 57 _ 49 _ 89 _____ 195 ____ 458

Damage in Tolland ___________80 _ 72 _ 84 ____ 236 ____ 94 _ 64 _ 54 _____ 212 ____ 448

hudsonvalley21 _____________ 94 _ 72 _ 66 ____ 232 ____ 96 _ 60 _ 58 _____ 214 ____ 446

DonSutherland.1 ____________ 86 _ 96 _ 94 ____ 276 ____ 20 _ 52 _ 94 _____ 166 ____ 442

OHweather _________________94 _ 90 _ 94 ____ 278 ____ 36 _ 50 _ 76 _____ 162 ____ 440

BKViking ___________________78 _ 74 _ 78 ____ 230 ____ 84 _ 74 _ 50 _____ 208 ____ 438

 

Normal ____________________ 80 _ 84 _ 86 ____ 250 ____ 46 _ 26 _ 94 _____ 166 ____ 416

 

dmillz25 ___________________ 84 _ 66 _ 60 ____ 210 ____ 86 _ 72 _ 46 _____ 204 ____ 414

Rjay ______________________ 80 _ 76 _ 74 ____ 230 ____ 74 _ 66 _ 34 _____ 174 ____ 404

Stebo _____________________ 74 _ 50 _ 44 ____ 168 ____ 80 _ 48 _ 82 _____ 210 ____ 378

Roger Smith ________________ 64 _ 78 _ 92 ____ 234 ____ 20 _ 42 _ 78 _____ 140 ____ 374

wxallannj ___________________90 _ 72 _ 72 ____ 234 ____ 28 _ 38 _ 72 _____ 138 ____ 372

ksammut ___________________80 _ 74 _ 62 ____ 216 ____ 46 _ 42 _ 54 _____ 142 ____ 358

Mallow ____________________ 64 _ 76 _ 78 ____ 218 ____ 08 _ 44 _ 86 _____ 138 ____ 356

Midlo Snow Maker____________40 _ 44 _ 48 ____ 132 ____ 26 _ 14 _ 88 _____ 128 ____ 260

 

 

Final scoring, western contest and all nine scores

 

FORECASTER ____________ DEN_PHX_SEA ___ TOTAL _______ All nine (rank)

 

Damage in Tolland ___________92 _ 80 _ 82 ______ 254 _________ 702 (= 1)

Rjay ______________________ 82 _ 70 _ 92 ______ 244 _________ 648 (= 3t)

Mallow ____________________ 56 _ 94 _ 90 ______ 240 _________ 596 (=11)

Roger Smith ________________76 _ 70 _ 94 ______ 240 _________ 614 (= 8)

Midlo Snow Maker___________ 52 _ 78 _ 92 ______ 222 _________ 482 (=18)

wxallannj __________________ 70 _ 50 _ 88 ______ 208 _________ 580 (=13)

DonSutherland.1 ____________ 14 _ 84 _ 94 ______ 192 _________ 634 (= 6)

Maxim ____________________ 32 _ 80 _ 72 ______ 184 _________ 642 (= 5)

hudsonvalley21 _____________ 38 _ 44 _ 90 ______ 172 _________ 618 (= 7)

 

Consensus ________________ 44 _ 40 _ 86 ______ 170 _________ 664 (= 3)

 

RodneyS __________________ 88 _ 20 _ 56 ______ 164 _________ 658 (= 2)

ksammut __________________ 60 _ 36 _ 64 ______ 160 _________ 518 (=17)

wxdude64 _________________ 44 _ 36 _ 76 ______ 156 _________ 648 (= 3t)

OHweather _________________26 _ 60 _ 68 ______ 154 _________ 594 (=12)

blazess556 _________________40 _ 30 _ 82 __ 152

_______________ (-5%) ______38 _ 29 _ 78 ______ 145 _________ 603 (= 9)

BKViking __________________ 44 _ 00 _ 68 ______ 112 _________ 550 (=16)

SD _______________________ 42 _ 30 _ 28 ______ 100 _________ 598 (=10)

Tenman Johnson ____________00 _ 00 _ 98 ______ 098 _________ 556 (=15)

 

Normal ____________________ 32 _ 20 _ 48 ______ 100 _________ 516 (=18)

 

Tom ______________________ 10 _ 12 _ 24 ______ 046 _________ 562 (=14)

Stebo _____________________ 00 _ 00 _ 26 ______ 026 _________ 404 (=20)

dmillz25 ___________________ 00 _ 00 _ 24 ______ 024 _________ 438 (=19)

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  • 2 weeks later...

=======<<<< UPDATED ANNUAL SCORING JANUARY to JUNE 2016 >>>>=======

 

 

FORECASTER ______ DCA_NYC_BOS __ east ___ ORD_ATL_IAH __ cent __ TOTAL __ Best scores

 

 

01 DonSutherland.1 ___ 425 . 465 . 406 __ 1296 ___ 371 . 420 . 442 ___ 1233 ___ 2529 __ 010011 . 1. 1 .. MAY

02 wxdude64 ________ 420 . 437 . 440 __ 1297 ___ 364 . 400 . 428 ___ 1192 ___ 2489 __ 111011 .1 . 0

03 BKViking _________ 355 . 430 . 398 __ 1183 ___ 469 . 440 . 372 ___ 1281 ___ 2464 __ 000210 . 0 . 1 .. JAN

04 RodneyS _________ 449 . 418 . 408 __ 1275 ___ 327 . 390 . 456 ___ 1173 ___ 2448 __ 211011 . 2 . 1

 

05 Consensus________ 417 . 438 . 394 __ 1249 ___ 364 . 418 . 398 ___ 1180 ___ 2429 __ 000000 . 0 . 0

 

05 wxallannj _________ 393 . 430 . 412 __ 1235 ___ 364 . 370 . 430 ___ 1164 ___ 2399 __ 010100 . 0 . 1 .. APR

06 hudsonvalley21 ____ 391 . 412 . 384 __ 1187 ___ 450 . 412 . 348 ___ 1210 ___ 2397 __ 000100 . 0 . 0

07 Mallow____________355 . 444 . 424 __ 1223 ___ 388 . 310 . 448 ___ 1146 ___ 2369 __ 100001 . 0 . 0

08 blazess556 ________362 . 442 . 431 __ 1235 ___ 275 . 447 . 373 ___ 1095 ___ 2330 __ 000011 . 0 . 0

09 SD ______________ 369 . 414 . 376 __ 1159 ___ 356 . 388 . 396 ___ 1140 ___ 2299 __ 000110. 0 . 0

10 MidloSnowMaker___ 350 . 389 . 418 __ 1157 ___ 357 . 376 . 347 ___ 1080 ___ 2237 __ 011010 . 1 . 0 .. FEB

 

11 OHweather ________357 . 451 . 433 __ 1241 ___ 255 . 385 . 348 ____ 988 ___ 2229 __ 000010. 0 . 0

12 Damage in Tolland __395 . 396 . 362 __ 1153 ___ 346 . 428 . 294 ___ 1068 ___ 2221 __ 100010 . 0 . 0

 

13 Normal___________ 396 . 384 . 338 __ 1118 ___ 340 . 320 . 414 ___ 1074 ___ 2192 __ 000000 . 1 . 0

 

13 Maxim ___________305 . 366 . 464 __ 1135 ___ 276 . 368 . 388 ___ 1032 ___ 2167 __ 002000 . 0 . 1 .. MAR

t14 Rjay_____________396 . 367 . 321 __ 1084 ___ 347 . 423 . 269 ___ 1039 ___ 2123 __ 100010 . 0 . 0

t14 ksammut _________413 . 397 . 360 __ 1170 ___ 269 . 338 . 346 ____ 953 ___ 2123 __ 111001 . 1 . 0

 

16 Roger Smith ______ 383 . 328 . 336 __ 1047 ___ 270 . 354 . 386 ___ 1010 ___ 2057 __ 200001 . 0 . 0

17 Stebo____________ 344 . 327 . 312 ___ 983 ___ 308 . 397 . 366 ___ 1071 ___ 2054 __ 000001 . 0 . 1

18 Tenman Johnson __ 375 . 342 . 374 __ 1091 ___ 318 . 306 . 316 ____ 940 ___ 2031 __ 210100 . 1 . 0

19 Tom_____________ 351 . 334 . 330 __ 1015 ___ 308 . 330 . 336 ____ 974 ___ 1989 __ 000000 . 0 . 1 .. JUN

20 dmillz25__________ 328 . 304 . 308 ___ 940 ___ 344 . 392 . 276 ___ 1012 ___ 1952 __ 100100 . 0 . 0

 

 

(lower ranked scores with missing months can be found in earlier monthly scoring tables)

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=== <<<<< Updated Annual Scoring for western and for all nine contests Jan to June 2016 >>>>> ===

 

 

FORECASTER __________ DEN_PHX_SEA __ TOTALS _ best scores (mo) _ All Nine Totals __ best scores

 

 

01 DonSutherland.1 _______ 310 _ 342 _ 476 ____ 1128 ________ 0 0 1 _ Apr __3657 (= 1) ___ MAY

02 wxallannj _____________ 304 _ 362 _ 460 ____ 1126 ________ 0 0 1 _______3525 (= 2) ___ APR

03 Damage in Tolland _____ 333 _ 294 _ 464 ____ 1091 ________ 1 0 1 _ Jun __ 3312 (= 9) ___ JUN

04 Mallow _______________284 _ 341 _ 456 ____ 1081 ________ 0 1 0 _______ 3450 (= 4)

05 Midlo Snow Maker______ 306 _ 316 _ 458 ____ 1080 ________ 1 0 1_ Mar __ 3317 (= 8) ___ FEB

 

06 Consensus ___________ 352 _ 310 _ 380 ____ 1042 ________ 0 0 0 _______ 3471 (= 4)

 

06 wxdude64 ____________ 345 _ 307 _ 370 ____ 1022 ________ 0 0 1 _ Jan __ 3511 (= 3) ___ JAN

07 hudsonvalley21 ________ 357 _ 310 _ 343 ____ 1010 ________ 0 1 0 _______3407 (= 5)

08 Maxim _______________ 206 _ 328 _ 440 _____ 974 ________ 0 1 1 _______3141 (=11) ___ MAR

09 Rjay _________________286 _ 295 _ 357 _____ 938 ________ 0 0 0 _______ 3061 (=13)

 

10 RodneyS _____________ 353 _ 241 _ 338 _____ 932 ________2 0 0 _ May __3380 (= 7)

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(problems editing above table, positions 11-20 follow)

 

11 BKViking ______________301 _ 248 _ 372 _____ 921 _______ 0 0 0 _______ 3385 (= 6)

12 OHweather ____________ 266 _ 334 _ 318 _____ 918 _______ 1 0 0 _______ 3147 (=10)

13 Roger Smith ___________ 184 _ 312 _ 354 _____ 850 _______ 0 1 0 _______ 2907 (=16)

14 ksammut ______________ 306 _ 322 _ 220 _____ 848 _______ 0 1 0 _______ 2971 (=15)

15 Tenman Johnson _______ 275 _ 308 _ 216 _____ 799 _______ 1 1 1 _ Feb __ 2830 (=17)

 

16 Normal _______________ 328 _ 260 _ 200 _____ 788 _______ 1 0 0 ________2980 (=15)

 

16 blazes ________________ 233 _ 259 _ 286 _____ 778 _______ 0 0 0 _______ 3108 (=12)

17 SD ___________________ 268 _ 236 _ 236 _____ 740 _______ 0 0 0 _______ 3039 (=14)

18 Tom __________________ 245 _ 251 _ 242 _____ 738 _______ 0 0 0 _______ 2727 (=18)

19 dmillz25 _______________ 245 _ 166 _ 295 _____ 705 _______ 0 0 0 _______ 2657 (=19)

20 Stebo _________________ 169 _ 186 _ 142 _____ 497 _______ 0 0 0 _______ 2551 (=20)

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EXTREME FORECAST UPDATE

 

 

Month __ Loc'n ____ Anomaly ____ Extreme fcst ___ 2nd most extreme ___ W-L decision

 

JUN ____ ORD _____ +2.7 _______ +4.0 (Rjay) ____ +2.9 (hudsonv21) ___W hud; L Rjay

JUN ____ ATL ______+3.7 _______ +2.4 (BK,RodS) _+2.3 _____________ W (BKV, RodS)

JUN ____ DEN _____ +3.4 _______ +4.0 (RodneyS) _ +3.0 (Damage) ____ W Dam, L RodS

JUN ____ PHX _____ +4.0 _______ +3.7 Mallow ____ +3.2 _____________ W Mallow

 

 

Updated Standings

 

RodneyS ___________ 4-1*

Midlo Snow Maker ____4-1

 

Tenman Johnson _____3-0

DonSutherland.1 _____ 3-0

Damage in Tolland ____3-0

wxallannj ___________ 2-0

ksammut ___________ 2-0

Roger Smith _________2-2

Maxim ______________2-1

BKViking ___________ 1-0

dmillz25 ____________ 1-0

hudsonvalley21 ______ 1-0

Blazess556 __________1-0

OHweather __________1-0

Mallow _____________ 1-0

Normal _____________ 1-0

 

Rjay _______________ 0-1

debeaches __________ 0-3

 

*plus one "no decision" __ RodneyS and Quincy (they were closer by forecast back in April, but lost on time penalties to the high score).

 

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