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Bonnie Discussion/Obs


NWNC2015

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It appears all but certain some interesting weather will be occurring around our neck of the woods for the holiday travel/events. Below is a look at a hurricane model. Some tornadoes will also be possible if the below materializes. The HWRF takes it to 50knots near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. 

Levi Cowan@TropicalTidbits If 91L stalls a bit before moving north, exactly where it stalls will matter a lot. Gulf stream 5C warmer than shelf

 

 

 

hwrf_goes4_91L_18.png

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Latest 00Z runs are not very spectacular, 1007- 1010 mb low on most models, even the hi res cane models are not doing to much....and the CMC which is usully overdone is weak with the low...guess we will see, the overall setup looks better so maybe the models will get stronger with it. At the least it should be a good warmup for the hurricane hunters if it does form.

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Latest 00Z runs are not very spectacular, 1007- 1010 mb low on most models, even the hi res cane models are not doing to much....and the CMC which is usully overdone is weak with the low...guess we will see, the overall setup looks better so maybe the models will get stronger with it. At the least it should be a good warmup for the hurricane hunters if it does form.

yea models in good agreement on a strung out mess, doubt it makes it to Bonnie but we will see.

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and as i say that nhc ups it to 70% lol.

 

Really there is not much of a window for it to do anything, if the water was 80-85 then it could actually be something but with temps in the mid to upper 70's and less than stellar upper level support I would think 40-60 mph TS is the best it could achieve.....but you never know if it gets 12-16 hrs of just right conditions it could be more than a meh storm...

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Really there is not much of a window for it to do anything, if the water was 80-85 then it could actually be something but with temps in the mid to upper 70's and less than stellar upper level support I would think 40-60 mph TS is the best it could achieve.....but you never know if it gets 12-16 hrs of just right conditions it could be more than a meh storm...

there is a lot of dry air out in front of it too, as it gets into a better shear environment dry air will start to takes its toll.

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My best friend is getting married on Tuesday, in Hatteras, on the beach. Hopefully this gets moving and clears out by then. Any thoughts on how this might affect the area around that time? Thanks!

 

Gonna be wet and windy.....even if this thing fizzes the upcoming pattern will keep it windy and any kind of onshore flow equals scattered showers and storms here this time of year. 

 

Here is the point and click for Hatteras

 

Sunday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Sunday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Memorial Day
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Monday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Tuesday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Tuesday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Wednesday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 78. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
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We have one week of warm and dry weather, and now we have this to deal with for the unofficial start of summer. Not looking forward to more rain. Maybe there will be a tornado threat with it to make things interesting.

There are bigger fish to fry! Like why gas went up 20 cents in the past two days!! Welcome to summer! Thanks big oil! :(
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The 12z runs, especially the HWRF, looked a little better/stronger.

Personally, I think the HWRF may be slightly more right, at least later in the run. As Levi Cowen said in a tweet quoted above, the gulf stream is much warmer than the nearby shelf. The HWRF shows some good strengthening from 1005 mb off the coast (which is already on the strong end of guidance) to 996 mb at landfall over the span of 12 hours, and I think it may be seeing the warmer waters better. Someone said in the MA forum that the HWRF just got a recent upgrade, too, so it should be interesting to see how well it does with this storm.

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That might have been me who talked about the HWRF :P

Dr. Knabb said that the HWRF was the best model they've had from 2013-15 in terms of forecasting tropical cyclone intensity. Now, that's a vague statement (for what period? compared to the Euro or only American guidance?) but to me, I got the impression that the NHC takes the HWRF seriously, at least with regard to intensity and inner structure projections.

That said, I'd certainly like to see more consensus and a longer term trend from other guidance on a stronger system before jumping on board. At this point, I'm taking everything with a grain of salt until recon has had a chance to get out there and sample the system and environment.

You're right in your assumption- I was talking about you!

I agree with pretty much everything you said. A consensus would be more reassuring, as would good recconaissance data. I wouldn't know under what scope the NHC is comparing the HWRF to, but in general I would definetly give its output some weight.

If you'd like a quick and dirty verification of how well the HWRF is doing, though, you can always just look at its simulated satellite data (found under "Upper Dynamics" on Tropical Tidbits) and compare that to realtime data. However, I would only take that as a very rough approximation of its accuracy.

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HWRF really doesn't ramp soon to be Bonnie up until 36 hrs or so as it crosses the warm Gulf Stream. Would have the potential to make a run at a weak TS if it verifies. GFS still unimpressed.

 

Its still pretty unorganized, there might be a llc around 28N 74W but if there is its weak a hell....no real organized convection either. None of the models take this lower than 1005ish MB, you never know though when it comes to these type systems. If the water temp was 5-8 degrees warmer then it could have a shot at strong TS/Cane but given the water temps in the Gulf Stream are barely cracking 80 it wont have as much to work with and the shelf water is mid 70's at best. This pattern though if it holds up for a few months could make for a interesting tropical season. 

 

There are gonna send a plane so we will know more then for sure...

 

NOUS42 KNHC 261429

REPRPD

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

1030AM EDT THU 26 MAY 2016

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z MAY 2016

TCPOD NUMBER.....16-001

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. SUSPECT AREA....NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS

FIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72

A. 27/1800Z A. 28/1130Z

B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST B. AFXXX 0202 CYCLONE

C. 27/1500Z C. 27/0830Z

D. 28.0N 74.0W D. 30.0N 76.0W

E. 27/1730Z TO 27/2130Z E. 28/1100Z TO 28/1630Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES WHILE

SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

3. REMARKS: THIS IS A SPECIAL TCPOD. DAILY TCPODS WILL

CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED WHILE AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE MISSIONS

ARE BEING CONSIDERED OR TASKED FOR THIS SYSTEM.

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