IrishRob17 Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 Have my a.c on. Really muggy. Whats the DP? Its still in the 50's up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 NAM likes Central Jersey S and W for tomorrow-several inches towards DC - Wicked squall line rips through Pittsburgh tomorrow afternoon, eventually evolving into an MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 Whats the DP? Its still in the 50's up here 44 DP in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 44 DP in the city. So someone thinks that's "really muggy"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 The RGEM shifted Northeast but not far enough. 1.5"+ in Trenton and nothing in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 The HRRR is pretty wet for tomorrow morning especially South and West of NYC, and then it has a full scale MCS crossing PA and MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 15, 2016 Author Share Posted June 15, 2016 We are really lucky that the blizzard was one of the few systems this year that bucked the south trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 We Most of us are really lucky that the blizzard was one of the few systems this year that bucked the south trend. fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 15, 2016 Author Share Posted June 15, 2016 fyp It was really tough for you guys being in the center of the precip deficit for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 It was really tough for you guys being in the center of the precip deficit for the region. YearPDeptNRCC.png the water sheds must be lower than usual looking t that map...it reminds me of the 1960's dry period... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 It was really tough for you guys being in the center of the precip deficit for the region. YearPDeptNRCC.png wow-parts of the area are 8-10 inches below this year? I knew it was dry, but that is incredibly dry for 6 months. If we get some heat, the dry ground will certainly add a few degrees to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 The GFS is further Northeast for tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 wow-parts of the area are 8-10 inches below this year? I knew it was dry, but that is incredibly dry for 6 months. If we get some heat, the dry ground will certainly add a few degrees to it. It's rained a lot lately here. Not so much in the last week or so but quite a bit before that. The problem is that we were bone dry here for the first half of Spring so we have a lot of ground to make up. When you're dry during the statistically wettest period of the year that causes problems. It's okay though, nature always has a way of balancing itself out. I'm sure we'll be dealing with multiple tropical systems this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 It was really tough for you guys being in the center of the precip deficit for the region. YearPDeptNRCC.png It has sucked and the dry spell is made a little worse by the hydrology here in Orange County. Check out my post last week in the NW thread if you're interested in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 The GFS is far more amplified and organized with a fully phased ULL system offshore now this weekend. I would definitely temper any heatwave talks as long as that feature is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 GFS is backdoor city for Eastern LI and most of SNE this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 It's rained a lot lately here. Not so much in the last week or so but quite a bit before that. The problem is that we were bone dry here for the first half of Spring so we have a lot of ground to make up. When you're dry during the statistically wettest period of the year that causes problems. It's okay though, nature always has a way of balancing itself out. I'm sure we'll be dealing with multiple tropical systems this year. We had close to 4 inches here b/w Memorial day and the following Sunday-other than that, it has been bone dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 The GFS is far more amplified and organized with a fully phased ULL system offshore now this weekend. I would definitely temper any heatwave talks as long as that feature is there. I'd wait to see if the Euro is onboard before I buy into that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 I'd wait to see if the Euro is onboard before I buy into that.... That's what the Euro shows as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 It scoots east on Monday with SW winds and 16-17C 850's and 588 dm heights. That would translate into at least low 90's with the potential for mid 90's in the warmest spots. That's for Monday. I was referring to this weekend with the backdoor. Also, the trend is back towards a more amplified system so we'll have to see if that trend continues. It doesn't have produce rain over the area to influence the area with Easterly winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 wow-parts of the area are 8-10 inches below this year? I knew it was dry, but that is incredibly dry for 6 months. If we get some heat, the dry ground will certainly add a few degrees to it. Here's the water year: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 The 12z GGEM is now on board with the closed low and it's much closer to the coast like the Euro. That's quite a shift from previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 NAM likes Central Jersey S and W for tomorrow-several inches towards DC - Congrats A.C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 All eyes on the 12z Euro as the UKMET cancelled the Monday and Tuesday warm up like the 12z CMC. Both the heat and rainfall fans get shafted as the UL cuts off too far south for much rain but enough for more onshore flow and cooler temps. Let's see if the trend continues further and the rain comes further North. The GGEM has the ULL on top of us early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 If the 12Z Euro looses the 90's heat it was showing in NJ on Monday, then we'll know that the UK and CMC are onto something. Euro says bye bye to the 90's and to the heat for that matter. NYC is sitting in only the upper 60's at 21z with an easterly flow and low level clouds locked in with ULL just offshore. It even has close to an inch of rain for parts of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 12z euro looses the heat and parks the cutoff just west of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 So Forky may be wrong after all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 so much for that. Onto July for the heat. Maybe the WAR can move west and give us some summer weather for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 The Euro is still warm for Tuesday but it's one day of lower 90's and that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 The Euro is still warm for Tuesday but it's one day of lower 90's and that's it. I'll take it! What's it got longer range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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