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Jim Martin

Active Severe Weather Pattern Beginning Next Week

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FWIW (which really isnt much), 12Z 4KM NAM at hour 60 (monday at 7pm) is targeting the OKC metro area for having a pretty sweet supercell. Even shows a hook on simulated reflectivity!

NAM4KMSGP_prec_radar_060.png

The environment in front of this thing is pretty volatile too if it were to occur, at least in the low-levels, minus the critical angle well over 90-degrees. (Picked a sounding from 23Z to try to avoid CC.) Remember this environment is probably overdone to an extent because this is the 4NAM, but still would likely have an impressive environment given what other models indicate.. Some weird stuff going on with the 4NAM above 350mb, not sure what it is really doing there, but it shows this same weird upper-level profile on several hours.

Well, NAM 4km shows dewpoints of 75+ widespread and I don't think we will be seeing that lol.

Upper 60s, low 70s more reasonable and applying that to what the 4km shows currently isn't nearly as impressive.

4km NAM sounding on that supercell in SW KS at 00z tonight:

nam4km_2016052112_012_38.18--101.0.png

You shouldn't try to pull up soundings in and around a supercell/convection. This sounding is convectively contaminated and not representative of the actual ambient environment.

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Well, NAM 4km shows dewpoints of 75+ widespread and I don't think we will be seeing that lol.

Upper 60s, low 70s more reasonable and applying that to what the 4km shows currently isn't nearly as impressive.

 

I wouldn't say it shows widespread 75+, except in TX, most of the 75+ it shows in OK is just pooling along the DL which maybe is not that far-fetched... Especially when you account for the impressive DPs currently widespread across S TX.

 

This same sounding actually fits in that low 70s category... 4KNAM Shows maybe a couple/few degrees more than other models, thanks to that pooling. In addition, lowering the DP by just a couple degrees when it is already above/near 70 is not going to change things that much, in other words upper 60s/low 70s DPs will be good enough. Somewhere, not sure where really, on Monday will probably see a nice discrete sup in the afternoon/evening.

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Can we maybe place a moratorium on posting convectively contaminated NAM4km forecast soundings? I'm as guilty as anyone having fun posting interesting ones on twitter, but here we're trying to have a relatively informative discussion on the severe weather threats, and the eye-candy supercell soundings don't actually contribute anything.

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Can we maybe place a moratorium on posting convectively contaminated NAM4km forecast soundings? I'm as guilty as anyone having fun posting interesting ones on twitter, but here we're trying to have a relatively informative discussion on the severe weather threats, and the eye-candy supercell soundings don't actually contribute anything.

 

I have been guilty of that myself many a times as well...

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Driving through the OK Panhandle I'm pleased to find that 4g has become common-place. So much improvement over even 3 years ago. 

 

Definitely has gotten better. Actually Verizon's more annoying hole in service was SE of Norman ...as I drove down 177 toward Sulfur...

 

What provider do you have?

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Driving through the OK Panhandle I'm pleased to find that 4g has become common-place. So much improvement over even 3 years ago. 

It is pretty remarkable how much coverage has improved in such a short amount of time. I have Verizon, and I rarely-- if ever-- am in a spot where I do not have LTE.

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DDC VWP as of 19Z... This will likely improve some too. Seems like any semi/discrete supercells-- as long as everything does not just cluster/congeal-- would have decent tornado potential, especially closer to evening as LCLs will lower and storms will slowly move into a better environment. Storms likely will not have great tornado potential right off the bat due to initially high LCLs, as SPC meso page/sfc obs indicate relatively high LCLs and T/Td spreads. Deep-layer shear would seem to favor more so storm clusters than supercells, given that it is pretty weak right now, but we'll see.

post-7962-0-02255300-1463857672_thumb.pn

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0664
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST KS TO FAR EAST-CENTRAL NM/TX S PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 211925Z - 212100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SLOW-MOVING STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM SOUTHWEST KS INTO EAST-CENTRAL NM
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. ALL STORMS SHOULD POSE A PRIMARY RISK FOR
LARGE HAIL...WITH A MORE INTENSE SUPERCELL OR TWO PROBABLE OVER
SOUTHWEST KS WHERE THE TORNADO RISK SHOULD BE COMPARATIVELY GREATER.

DISCUSSION...HIGH-BASED CUMULUS IS INCREASING ALONG/BEHIND THE
DRYLINE WHICH WAS DRAPED ALONG THE NORTHWEST KS/EAST-CENTRAL CO
BORDER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO FAR EASTERN NM. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S
SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAINING COMMON AT 19Z. CONTINUED CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE DRYLINE /FURTHER INTENSIFYING INTO EARLY EVENING/ SHOULD
RESULT IN INITIAL STORMS FORMING BETWEEN 20-21Z. LOW-LEVEL WINDS
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY MORE BACKED AND STRENGTHEN GREATLY TOWARDS 00Z
ACROSS THE KS/OK PANHANDLE PORTION OF THIS REGION. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT
FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING A SUPERCELL OR TWO THAT MAY PRODUCE VERY
LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO. NEARBY PRESENCE OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SUGGESTS STORMS SHOULD ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AND BE LARGELY
CONFINED TO NEAR THE DRYLINE.

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/21/2016

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Red box out for E CO, SW NE and W KS.

50/20 probs. Lets see what we get.

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN COLORADO

WESTERN KANSAS

EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA

* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 310 PM UNTIL

1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE

WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL

EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER

THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.

BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT THE

RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND

A FEW TORNADOES.

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Never a good omen to have lackluster convective initiation when almost every CAM had robust development underway 1-2 hours ago. Still sitting 20 N of Liberal waiting to see what happens down here. 

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Was watching/listening to Kelley Williamson's stream on Severe Studios, and saw about 3 DOWs from NSSL/CSWR in Tribune, KS.

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If any of these storms can ever get well established and move along the boundary evident on GLD they could really explode, the VWP at GLD is pretty incredible in the lowest 10KFT. 

post-7962-0-30170600-1463870378_thumb.pn

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Rain wrapped TVS on the storm north of Leoti.

EDIT: And... its gone. Was there for two updates. Nothing showed up on CC, so not sure if there was an actual tornado, but the TVS was pretty obvious.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS

639 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

  NORTHWESTERN WICHITA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

 

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

    

* AT 638 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO

  WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF LEOTI...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

 

  HAZARD...TORNADO AND HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER. 

 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. 

 

  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT 

           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. 

           DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE 

           DAMAGE IS LIKELY. 

 

* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF

  NORTHWESTERN WICHITA COUNTY.

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Pretty intense inflow into the storm north of Leoti, starting to act/ look more supercellular, main circulation is still pretty well rain wrapped.

 

Pretty broad, but strong rotation. Looks like ~100kts gtg.

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
713 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016  
 
KSC203-220045-  
/O.CON.KGLD.TO.W.0020.000000T0000Z-160522T0045Z/  
WICHITA KS-  
713 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016  
 
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR NORTH  
CENTRAL WICHITA COUNTY...  
 
AT 712 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTH OF  
LEOTI...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND THREE INCH HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE  
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS  
LIKELY.  
 
THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF  
NORTH CENTRAL WICHITA COUNTY.  
 

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Latest velocity scans indicate there might be a second tornado warning coming for this - second area or rotation NNW of current TOR warning.

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