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Active Severe Weather Pattern Beginning Next Week


Jim Martin

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Severe VBV down low on the LMN sounding. Models completely screwed that up.

Interesting to see any decent trough eject out this season either have VBV and/or early convection issues.

Meanwhile several days in the last week have produced big, with a weak flow over the open warm sector.

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Excellent forecasting technique.

Hard to deny that it ruins everything. Both times VBV was shown on models for a potentially high-end event, it ended up being worse than was shown. Just pessimism, not "forecasting technique."

Still potential later on I guess if there is any instability left over from this mess...

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Fwiw... No VBV shown on VNX VAD...

VNX is down for repairs. I don't know what data you are looking at.

 

The veer-back-veer (or veer-back) wind profiles may be just a piece of the problem so far. The large scale lift from two jet streaks (north and south) helped kick off a lot of storms early, which doesn't bode well for well-formed discrete storms.

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well until I see otherwise, that will be my thinking.

 

It's not as simple as "OH THERE'S VBV SO BUST!". There's a ton of other factors that come into play. Does convection fire off to early? Is there too much lift so therefore too many storms get going at once? Is there enough 0-1km shear for mesos to get going at the lowest level? There have been several major events with VBV (Such as 5/24/11), so taking one look at the VBV signature and then judging whether an event verifies or busts based on that is an extremely simple-minded way of thinking. 

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VNX is down for repairs. I don't know what data you are looking at.

The veer-back-veer (or veer-back) wind profiles may be just a piece of the problem so far. The large scale lift from two jet streaks (north and south) helped kick off a lot of storms early, which doesn't bode well for well-formed discrete storms.

ah yes. Didn't see 0126Z time lol. Still stands from ICT and DDC. Messy storm modes can largely be attributed to the VBV imo, plenty of past events have fired off early, but had quality wind fields in place so we saw "good" storms. 4/14/12 rings a bell. Struggling today with data and everything today because only have my phone.
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It's not as simple as "OH THERE'S VBV SO BUST!". There's a ton of other factors that come into play. Does convection fire off to early? Is there too much lift so therefore too many storms get going at once? Is there enough 0-1km shear for mesos to get going at the lowest level? There have been several major events with VBV (Such as 5/24/11), so taking one look at the VBV signature and then judging whether an event verifies or busts based on that is an extremely simple-minded way of thinking.

my lord. I explained this in some of my forecast ideas earlier this morning and yesterday about other factors. I am well aware of the many factors that go into a forecast bro. I welcome you to look at RAOBs from 5/24/11, there was no VBV except at DDC (which as well outside of the threat area.) Also look at the wind fields shown on the SPC's violent tornado days page... Sorry just irritated.
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Sitting south of Coldwater, KS watching struggling towers to the west. Temperature in Greensburg was 74F with light wind. Just 25 miles south the temperature has soared to 88 degrees with gusty southeast winds and clear skies. Still hoping stuff on the KS/OK border can go but this day has stunk for me so far. 

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