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Jim Martin

Active Severe Weather Pattern Beginning Next Week

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Not biased at all; typically the ppl calling for a bust are those looking for justification for sitting out on a chase.

You guys are severely underestimating what this setup is likely to produce.

 

Actually some of the bust calls (regardless of wx event) are from "cooler-than-thou" types trying to show off how levelheaded and unexcited they are as opposed to being hype-weenies. 

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A sun kink can do the same thing to the rail bed...and thats just because of expansive heating of the rail under extreme temperatures.

 

 

 

So it looks to me the entire rail bed was physically shoved sideways as a unit by wind?  In some ways that is even more impressive. 

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So it looks to me the entire rail bed was physically shoved sideways as a unit by wind?  In some ways that is even more impressive. 

Considering how incredibly strong/sturdy and low to the ground these tracks are, and if heavy debris impacts weren't involved, this kind of warping and bending is likely the result of 200+ MPH winds. There is pretty much nothing for the wind to "grab onto", and it would take insanely high wind speeds right at ground level to do that.

 

In a nutshell: probably EF5. Will we see that kind of rating given such a non-conventional DI? Probably not.

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Only 2:16pm folks. Multiple rounds likely, LLJ influence has not begun either. Most of this stuff is elevated junk.

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Looks like the storms around Topeka have finished merging into one large supercell. Something to watch with velocity getting more interesting.

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Only 2:16pm folks. Multiple rounds likely, LLJ influence has not begun either. Most of this stuff is elevated junk.

A lot of it is surface based now.

Activity in the Woodward area is more discrete and probably poses the best risk, in addition to anything that develops south of the ongoing activity.

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While its just now 2:25, these "elevated junk" is pretty far west in the MDT risk. I don't think we should be calling this a bust at this point but I don't see the problem with talking about how this junk could potentially be a limiting factor.

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A lot of it is surface based now.

Activity in the Woodward area is more discrete and probably poses the best risk, in addition to anything that develops south of the ongoing activity.

I'm talking about stuff in KS... Primarily near/east of I-135.

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Man, flooding could get particularly problematic today, so many of these areas are already so saturated.

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EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS  
232 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016  
 
KSC149-262000-  
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0021.000000T0000Z-160526T2000Z/  
POTTAWATOMIE-  
232 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016  
 
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT FOR  
SOUTHEASTERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY...  
 
AT 232 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER  
WAMEGO... MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE  
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS  
LIKELY.  
 
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
WAMEGO AND LOUISVILLE.  

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Couplet on the Wamego, KS confirmed tor isn't anything special, but it's producing nonetheless. Hard to make it out even on BV...

ae61cabb386063ffbfb58874fcd701de.jpg

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Couplet on the Wamego, KS confirmed tor isn't anything special, but it's producing nonetheless. Hard to make it out even on BV...

 

now 4 tornado reports today near Wamego/St George/Louisville KS

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Didn't you guys who are calling bust at 230pm learn earlier this week when a lot of people said this week wasn't going to produce a whole lot? And look what it's done. Not gonna say anymore about it.

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Couplet on the Wamego, KS confirmed tor isn't anything special, but it's producing nonetheless. Hard to make it out even on BV...

ae61cabb386063ffbfb58874fcd701de.jpg

Looks a lot better now just south of Louisville.

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Looks like a dominant cell has emerged and should begin tracking northeast soon in southwest ks

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Crazy video from Big Spring, TX (aftermath right after tornado hits guys house) at the below link:

http://www.ktxs.com/news/Big-Spring-man-dog-survive-tornado/39676500

And here's a video of one of the tornadoes actually touching down in Big Spring

http://www.ktxs.com/news/video-tornado-touches-down-in-big-spring/39674112

 

None of those videos works, says video media not found or something.

 

Impressive, but boy, quite a bit of hyperbole in initial reports, eh? Weren't people initially saying that the tracks were actually ripped out of the ground?

 

Unless there is indeed more parts of the railroad that the tornado hit and ripped right out clean that haven't surfaced in media yet, the initial reports stating that would be outright lies. There is no accidental mistaking the two forms of damage.

 

6 TOR warnings ongoing, outbreak mode at 2:55 CDT.

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[quote name="Torchageddon" post="4125111" timestamp="1464292644"

6 TOR warnings ongoing, outbreak mode at 2:55 CDT.

There's nothing outbreak-like about what's occurring right now.

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SPC still maintains the hatched 15% area. I'm not real sure about this. They're banking on that LLJ kicking in, and it better do so quick or we're going to be dealing with an MCS. 

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The line in SW Kansas is becoming more discrete though, there will a chance for 3 or 4 of those cells to get going here soon....the one between Coldwater and Greensburg in particular...

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