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Jim Martin

Active Severe Weather Pattern Beginning Next Week

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Couplet and radar presentation becoming quite impressive on Morris Co. supercell.

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Here's what I was referring to in my prior post:

EJoULtt.png

And then this:

oVc6MfUr.png

Yeah, there was likely a tornado... Nearly impossible to confirm w/o damage though, since it was completely rain wrapped. Very scary situation considering it is night. Rotation has occluded now.

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"very large tornado" according to Chaser Marty Logan on News 9 near Hillsdale.

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I'm sure there are other railroad dorks on the forum that also realize how big a deal it is if true, but, unless there was some other factor (scouring of the track bed, impact from large objects) the actual removal of continuously welded modern Class 1 rail is almost unfathomable. It is going to take an insane amount of extreme low level wind to remove a long section of connected CWR. The line that runs through Chapman is apparently a Union Pacific line which means the rail is certainly going to be up to modern standard. If it was a branch line or old siding with bolted rail, that's one thing, but modern rail is incredibly heavy and connected in one long ribbon. This is all speculation as I have no idea what actually happened there, but if some of the reports are true, this is a truly unique level of damage.

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Well I missed it...

Such is the life of a chaser... You did well yesterday and hopefully you'll do well tomorrow.

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Strong rotation SW of Eskridge, KS. Looks like a TDS and BWER as well.

 

EDIT: 128kt gtg couplet... Confirmed rain-wrapped tornado.

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Strong rotation SW of Eskridge, KS. Looks like a TDS and BWER as well.

 

EDIT: 128kt gtg couplet... Confirmed rain-wrapped tornado.

This storm just won't quit. Very strong couplet going now.

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...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CDT FOR SOUTH

CENTRAL WABAUNSEE COUNTY...

    

AT 1023 PM CDT...A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6

MILES SOUTHWEST OF ESKRIDGE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

 

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

 

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. 

 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. 

 

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY 

         BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES 

         WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...

         BUSINESSES...AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION 

         IS POSSIBLE. 

 

THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF

SOUTH CENTRAL WABAUNSEE COUNTY.

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Think I'm retiring after the last two days

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TDS evident on Radar.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

  SOUTHEASTERN WABAUNSEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...

  NORTHWESTERN OSAGE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...

 

* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT

    

* AT 1027 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO

  WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF ESKRIDGE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

 

  THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! 

 

  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. 

 

  SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. 

 

  IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS 

           MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE 

           HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...

           BUSINESSES...AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE 

           DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE. 

 

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

  HARVEYVILLE AROUND 1045 PM CDT. 

 

 

 

EDIT: Weakened considerably.

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Think I'm retiring after the last two days

Watch tomorrow somehow even be more epic.

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Strong rotation SW of Eskridge, KS. Looks like a TDS and BWER as well.

EDIT: 128kt gtg couplet... Confirmed rain-wrapped tornado.

Was definitely a strong couplet for a while, but has since weakened.

360d76be8760c5d56b7af25ed03b4980.jpg

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00z NAM paints a dangerous picture across the current ENH risk area--and especially in KS-- tomorrow by as early as 18Z. Widespread 0-1KM SRH of 200-300m2/s2 by 00z, and even better 0-3KM SRH. Here is a sounding from 00Z tomorrow in S KS.  00_NAM_024_37.44,-98.77_severe_ml.png

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Me too... I need some of Ian's mojo.

 

Well Ian needed some of my mojo yesterday so I guess we're even lol.

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00z NAM paints a dangerous picture across the current ENH risk area tomorrow by as early as 18Z. Here is a sounding from 00Z tomorrow in S KS.

 

Goodness.

 

Well I'll certainly get a shot at redemption tomorrow. Might be dangerous though.

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Gives a nice perspective on how strong the winds were further out from the Chapman tornado.

Man that is some crazy inflow. Basically created its own environment. I finally get a day off tomorrow.....hoping for something a fraction of that good. Still concerned about VBV issues though.

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