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Active Severe Weather Pattern Beginning Next Week


Jim Martin

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0741  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0113 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND THE  
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE  
 
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY  

 
VALID 261813Z - 262015Z  

 
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT  
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED OVER THE PAST 1-2  
HOURS...AND A SEVERE THREAT WILL EVENTUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE.  
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.  
 
DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE  
INCREASING SURFACE BASED CONVECTION OVER THE PAST  
HOUR...PARTICULARLY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF  
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. INSTABILITY IS  
VERY STRONG IN THE REGION...WITH MLCAPE EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG  
SUGGESTIVE OF A HAIL AND DOWNBURST WIND THREAT WITH ANY SUSTAINED  
ACTIVITY. THE TORNADO THREAT IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AT THIS TIME  
GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...BUT SHOULD INCREASE WITH  
TIME AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE  
EVENING. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS NEAR THE WARM FRONT...WHERE BACKED SURFACE WINDS  
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED VORTICITY INGEST OF ANY ISOLATED  
UPDRAFTS IN THIS AREA.  
 
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS CONVECTION  
OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. GENERALLY...ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD  
CONTINUE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH REDEVELOPMENT  
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DRYLINE THROUGHOUT THE  
AFTERNOON. SOME MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS LESSENED EFFECTIVE  
INSTABILITY IN THAT AREA...WITH GENERALLY HIGHER-BASED CONVECTION  
EXPECTED THAT WILL CONTAIN A HAIL/WIND THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST  
ACTIVITY.  

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0740  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0108 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL OK...CNTRL AND ERN KANSAS  
 
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE  

 
VALID 261808Z - 262015Z  

 
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT  
 
SUMMARY...LONGER TERM SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS A BIT  
UNCERTAIN. BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A SEVERE WEATHER  
THREAT THAT COULD REQUIRE A WATCH.  
 
DISCUSSION...IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE  
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...MID-LEVEL INHIBITION HAS WEAKENED SUFFICIENTLY  
TO ALLOW FOR INCREASINGLY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE I-35/135  
CORRIDOR OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS IS  
OCCURRING IN THE PRESENCE OF A SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...  
BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH ARE CONTRIBUTING TO  
SIZABLE CAPE.  
 
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION...EAST OF THE DRYLINE  
...AND SOUTHWEST OF A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE  
MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE I-70 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN KANSAS...IS RATHER  
MODEST...PARTICULARLY IN LOW-LEVEL. SOME CONCERN EXISTS THAT AFTER  
ONGOING...INITIAL INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SEVERE WEATHER  
POTENTIAL COULD BECOME MITIGATED AS INCREASING OUTFLOW IMPACTS THE  
BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW  
BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS COULD STILL  
BECOME A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...WITH A RISK FOR  
A TORNADO OR TWO. OTHERWISE...SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND  
GUSTS APPEAR THE PRIMARY THREAT INTO THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME.  

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Here's the railroad track that was shifted by the tornado yesterday, not ripped up and twisted.

 

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=971746146279195&set=a.578163555637458.1073741828.100003314564319&type=3&theater

 

 

Impressive, but boy, quite a bit of hyperbole in initial reports, eh? Weren't people initially saying that the tracks were actually ripped out of the ground?

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Impressive, but boy, quite a bit of hyperbole in initial reports, eh? Weren't people initially saying that the tracks were actually ripped out of the ground?

There were multiple areas between Abilene and Chapman reported by both FD and spotters on the Skywarn feed, so I'm almost positive that's not the only area.
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Despite the extreme hyperbole from yesterday, that is still the most impressive wind damage to continuously welded rail I have ever seen. Could be the most impressive ever. I just wonder if several things hit the rail structure to start the damage.

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Storm mode is awfully messy already, this could end the event before it really even started.

Wait for the LLJ before even considering making this kind of call. That is one of the most basic rules of plains setups. And honestly, the main show may end up being those Oklahoma cells as they push northward later this evening.

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 215  

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  

155 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016  

 

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  

 

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF  

SOUTHWEST IOWA  

NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST KANSAS  

SOUTHERN NEBRASKA  

 

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL  

1000 PM CDT.  

 

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  

A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE  

WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL  

EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY  

SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE  

 

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ALONG A WARM FRONT  

EXTENDING ROUGHLY ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER. THESE STORMS MAY BECOME  

SUPERCELLULAR WITH A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.  

STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

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Can we please stop calling bust at friggin 2 PM?

Come on people. This may sound biased since I'm chasing, but seriously.

Not biased at all; typically the ppl calling for a bust are those looking for justification for sitting out on a chase.

You guys are severely underestimating what this setup is likely to produce.

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Despite the extreme hyperbole from yesterday, that is still the most impressive wind damage to continuously welded rail I have ever seen. Could be the most impressive ever. I just wonder if several things hit the rail structure to start the damage.

 

So it looks to me the entire rail bed was physically shoved sideways as a unit by wind?  In some ways that is even more impressive. 

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