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Active Severe Weather Pattern Beginning Next Week


Jim Martin

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I would be.

Some guidance has it and additional development grow upscale during the afternoon, mitigating any sig threat. Have to see how it pans out.

CAMs have been remarkably bad at depicting convection this week.
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Weak UL flow is one of the reasons. Almost always do bad in those situations.

Today is a bit different though, with 50kt+ at 500mb nosing in later.

Handling the immense instability poorly as well initiating way too early. Something to do with their mixing schemes most likely. Some CAMs also way too strong with cold pool dev
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Might maybe see a PDS Watch later no?

due to concerns over potential messy storm-modes, I'm not sure... Also because the last PDS watch busted for the same reason due to VBV (4/26)... But I wouldnt be surprised in the least, potential is certainly there for multiple strong, long-track tornadoes.
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storms may have  fired too early for maximum potential and are already eating up some of  the instability, some places may still recover by evening though

 

also storms look "grungy" likley  from weak upper level winds(for now) and lack of directional shear in the lower levels on the ICT VAD and also the DDC VAD?

 

TOP much better

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