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Active Severe Weather Pattern Beginning Next Week


Jim Martin

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Hey, anyone paying attention to the storm south of kinsley? looks good...

 

Strong circulation developing south of Kinsley.

 

Also cell north of Greensburg is getting it's act together. Will be rain wrapped if it produces. 

 

 

 

Answers my question...

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Invisible storm

 

In all seriousness though I think that was an errant warning.

 

Understandable. What a cluster**** swarm of tornadoes....counted three remarkably tight couplets at one point moving NE, SSE, and NNW a bit ago.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0713
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0715 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON

VALID 250015Z - 250045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE QUICKLY DEVELOPING ALONG/N OF A REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF TORNADO WATCH 204. A NEW TORNADO
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE QUICKLY DEVELOPED ALONG THE ERN
EDGE OF TORNADO WATCH 204. ALTHOUGH THESE ARE MOVING N OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...THE AIR MASS STILL REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE ACROSS
THIS AREA AND SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR SFC-BASED STORMS. LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL JET...AND COULD SUPPORT TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH ANY
MATURING STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. THE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A
NARROW CORRIDOR OVER S-CNTRL KS...WITH MODIFIED AIR FROM NERN OK
CONVECTION ADVECTING NWD INTO SERN KS. A WW WILL BE CONSIDERED SOON.

..ROGERS/EDWARDS.. 05/25/2016

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Well, I have to go pretty soon. If there's a tornado within 25 statute miles of Coldwater, save a BR and SRV image of it, and post it or send it to me. (and CC if there is any good information on a TDS) I have a little game going on in a different forum, and my forecast point was Coldwater.

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Data hole where the tornado is... Looks like it'll cycle

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

  SOUTHWESTERN STAFFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

  SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

  SOUTHEASTERN EDWARDS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

 

* UNTIL 845 PM CDT

    

* AT 813 PM CDT...A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED

  4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LEWIS...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

 

  THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. 

 

  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. 

 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. 

 

  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT 

           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. 

           DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE 

           DAMAGE IS LIKELY. 

 

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

  BELPRE AROUND 830 PM CDT. 

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Looks like Sunday and today we're definitely good days and above "run of the mill" status.

Thursday looks like the next day to potentially breach that mark, before this active period ends Fri/Sat.

Possibly Friday as well...

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Power back on here at the house...DDC got lit up earlier.  

SRH was quite a bit better up in KS but still not great, just shows how a fairly modest bump in shear can have a big impact on storms.  Hopefully Andy was well positioned today.

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Power back on here at the house...DDC got lit up earlier.  

SRH was quite a bit better up in KS but still not great, just shows how a fairly modest bump in shear can have a big impact on storms.  Hopefully Andy was well positioned today.

Actually SRH was quite impressive on the DDC VAD for a while. But indeed it can.. Sunday saw something similar.

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