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andyhb

May 7th-9th Severe Weather Episodes

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That cell southwest of ICT appears to have developed along an OFB... Lets see if that helps at all.

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Continuing to like my Clinton call I made, it appears as though the chasers who went with that are in a prime spot. Storms are about 25-30 mins away from much better instability and LCLs.

Also intrigued to watch around Wichita Falls as EHIs are 3-4 around the city with 3000 CAPE

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0-1 km SRH is already sufficient for tornadoes further E per mesoanalysis, this will only increase as the LLJ strengthens later on and further backing of the surface winds occurs thanks to the pressure falls with the lee cyclone.

 

Ch9uHQCUkAAuWrw.jpg

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It's going to take at least 1-2 hours before the western Oklahoma storms move into a better environment with lower LCLs and substantive SRH:

post-533-0-98480600-1462743247_thumb.jpe

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It's going to take at least 1-2 hours before the western Oklahoma storms move into a better environment with lower LCLs and substantive SRH:

 

That might start to backbuild further west as the surface winds respond and the dryline temporarily retreats.

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That might start to backbuild further west as the surface winds respond and the dryline temporarily retreats.

That and the entire area is analyzed with >50kts bulk shear. It will be interesting to see if we do get multiple rounds of storms or if a few of these early ones can sustain themselves.

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Past couple HRRRX and 4KM NAM runs have indicated we should have a dominant cell develop in southwest Oklahoma and move northeast towards the OKC metro by early evening. I'm leaning on heading towards the Altus/Hollis area versus the northern target in S KS. Still have two hours to decide for sure. Moisture down in SW OK would undoubtedly be better than the KS target and a dryline punch could help convective initiation down south as well. We've had elevated storms this morning which could have dropped an OFB or two. 

 

 

 

Looks like the cell close to Frederick could possiblbly be that very one mentioned here from David.  (If it holds together)

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Looks like the cell close to Frederick could possiblbly be that very one mentioned here from David.  (If it holds together)

Frederick cell now has 2.25" as per level-3 hail estimation. That could be an indicator that it is the strongest updraft in the area. Still looks kind of jumbled though.

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Frederick cell now has 2.25" as per level-3 hail estimation. That could be an indicator that it is the strongest updraft in the area. Still looks kind of jumbled though.

I thought it kinda looked like it was splitting.

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Left splits are outperforming rights, indicating we're probably a ways off from hodos supporting a robust tornado threat. We probably initiated too early to maximize the threat, unless the dryline fires more stuff. Initiation on the dryline more like 5:30 would've been a lot more optimal.

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Left splits are outperforming rights, indicating we're probably a ways off from hodos supporting a robust tornado threat. We probably initiated too early to maximize the threat, unless the dryline fires more stuff. Initiation on the dryline more like 5:30 would've been a lot more optimal.

 

Looks like the right mover near Frederick is looking better now. Left mover still intense as well.

 

Also have a new storm blowing up near Seymour.

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I've been sitting underneath a rotating wall cloud here on top of my house in Stapleton (Denver metro) that isn't warned. I can't figure out what's going on with BOU - but they should have put a TOR warning on this 10 minutes ago.

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One of the better looking left splits you'll see, originally from the Fredrick storm...

ba684982d21afa2a9760203ac021b1f4.jpg

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I've been sitting underneath a rotating wall cloud here on top of my house in Stapleton (Denver metro) that isn't warned. I can't figure out what's going on with BOU - but they should have put a TOR warning on this 10 minutes ago.

It's had a decent couplet at times.

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Winds are still weak aloft in NW Oklahoma. 20kt flow at 1-3km AGL isn't going to do much. This is VNX, which is east of the storms firing up there.

post-533-0-89131300-1462745910_thumb.gif

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
521 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHWESTERN GOVE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...  
 
* UNTIL 545 PM CDT  
 
* AT 521 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
WAS LOCATED 12 MILES NORTH OF HEALY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE   
 

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Cool opposite, axisymmetric ZDR arcs on both splits of the Frederick supercell. Clear sign of size sorting and SRH being ingested.

e8144fd3b2cb098d0351010710be7fd3.jpg

6522cf5331c38dbf85fa23f49b441880.jpg

Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk

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Sitting in Roosevelt now. Honestly wondering if the storm that developed behind everything in Altus might be my best shot. Frederick is the only other one that looks interesting, but I badly misplayed by going for the northern storms early.

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Left splits are outperforming rights, indicating we're probably a ways off from hodos supporting a robust tornado threat. We probably initiated too early to maximize the threat, unless the dryline fires more stuff. Initiation on the dryline more like 5:30 would've been a lot more optimal.

 

The expanding grungefest in TX is going to cut off inflow to areas further north. Don't think we win either way in OK... have to go further north into KS for less of that influence.

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The expanding grungefest in TX is going to cut off inflow to areas further north. Don't think we win either way in OK... have to go further north into KS for less of that influence.

 

Think it is unwise to be calling this as we enter primetime. Near-sfc inflow is coming from the SE, why would that stuff in TX totally cut that off? Plus the stuff in TX is barely organized aside from the storm near ABI.

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