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May 7th-9th Severe Weather Episodes


andyhb

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I am in Des Moines (Just moved here for the purpose of being engaged in severe wx events) and look to make friends to discuss this stuff with frequently. For this round, central IA appears to be on the outer northern edge of this event tonight through Tues with Marginal odds, Slight in the extreme SW corner of IA. Not that impressive but I'm hoping we will at least see a few high-lightning nocturnal storms rolling through if nothing else. :raining:

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Past couple HRRRX and 4KM NAM runs have indicated we should have a dominant cell develop in southwest Oklahoma and move northeast towards the OKC metro by early evening. I'm leaning on heading towards the Altus/Hollis area versus the northern target in S KS. Still have two hours to decide for sure. Moisture down in SW OK would undoubtedly be better than the KS target and a dryline punch could help convective initiation down south as well. We've had elevated storms this morning which could have dropped an OFB or two. 

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Past couple HRRRX and 4KM NAM runs have indicated we should have a dominant cell develop in southwest Oklahoma and move northeast towards the OKC metro by early evening. I'm leaning on heading towards the Altus/Hollis area versus the northern target in S KS. Still have two hours to decide for sure. Moisture down in SW OK would undoubtedly be better than the KS target and a dryline punch could help convective initiation down south as well. We've had elevated storms this morning which could have dropped an OFB or two.

Really been looking at that too. We are going to Clinton and waiting there. If dews look underdone, we will bust south. If not, we go north.

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Past couple HRRRX and 4KM NAM runs have indicated we should have a dominant cell develop in southwest Oklahoma and move northeast towards the OKC metro by early evening. I'm leaning on heading towards the Altus/Hollis area versus the northern target in S KS. Still have two hours to decide for sure. Moisture down in SW OK would undoubtedly be better than the KS target and a dryline punch could help convective initiation down south as well. We've had elevated storms this morning which could have dropped an OFB or two. 

With this in mind.. Dr. Forbes just gave West/Central OK a 6 on the Tor:con.

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Seems like this convection across both western OK and southern KS will leave behind a vorticity rich environment and possibly even an OFB or two. Thankfully there is not a ton of cloud debris from these over the main threat area.

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I'll be leaving OUN in about an hour with plans to head to Clinton on I-40. A good place to sit and 'split' the southern and northern target. Winds starting to back in SW OK and NW TX with dews at 60-63°F. Should be able to get 63-64°F to I-40 by early afternoon. The ongoing elevated convection may help things this afternoon with less mixing and a few OFBs to make things interesting. I wonder if the UH tracks Bubba posted are hinting at that OFB setting up. Its 2016 so I'm sure it'll turn into a messy, HP grunge fest but I'd jump off a bridge if I sat at home 90 minutes away while something happened. 

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I'll be leaving OUN in about an hour with plans to head to Clinton on I-40. A good place to sit and 'split' the southern and northern target. Winds starting to back in SW OK and NW TX with dews at 60-63°F. Should be able to get 63-64°F to I-40 by early afternoon. The ongoing elevated convection may help things this afternoon with less mixing and a few OFBs to make things interesting. I wonder if the UH tracks Bubba posted are hinting at that OFB setting up. Its 2016 so I'm sure it'll turn into a messy, HP grunge fest but I'd jump off a bridge if I sat at home 90 minutes away while something happened. 

HP does not make much sense in this case, at least not to me... Not overly abundant moisture,  100-110kt flow at H25, and PWAT values being sub 1.4. Given the likely isolated nature of cells, at least in OK, i'd expect some classic jewels especially as it gets closer to 22-00z as LLVL wind fields will improve.

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current.TDEW_.grad_.png

 

Starting to see moisture pool south a potential OFB setting up just south of I-40. If you look at radar you can see elevated convection firing up in proximity to that OFB. We'll have to see how quickly it lifts north early this afternoon. As Aurora said the morning CAMs are showing decent agreement that we will have a show today in W OK. Hopefully they're also correct that convection becomes less organized as it approaches OKC/OUN. I'm tired of circulations passing over my apartment in SE OUN. I'll head west on 40 to Clinton at noon. It's about a 80 minute punch south to Altus if needed or a 2 hour jump north to Alva. I will be streaming chase video on my website this afternoon at texasstormchasers.com/live or directly on YouTube if you prefer that method. 

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HP does not make much sense in this case, at least not to me... Not overly abundant moisture,  100-110kt flow at H25, and PWAT values being sub 1.4. Given the likely isolated nature of cells, at least in OK, i'd expect some classic jewels especially as it gets closer to 22-00z as LLVL wind fields will improve.

 

Oh I was just ranting - no meteorological background involved. I just expect to be trolled somehow because that seems to be the case this spring in OK so far. 

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Oh I was just ranting - no meteorological background involved. I just expect to be trolled somehow because that seems to be the case this spring in OK so far. 

Ah I gotcha. Just like on 4/29 in SC OK when the intense supercell RFD did the choke job right after producing what seemed like a sig tor.

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...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL KS AND  
WESTERN OK...  
 
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHERN PLAINS...  
 
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHERN PLAINS...  
   
..THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NC
 
 
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL AND A  
FEW TORNADOES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA FROM  
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA BEGINNING LATE AFTERNOON.  
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO AFFECT PARTS OF NORTH  
CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
A LARGE UPPER LOW IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE WESTERN UNITED  
STATES...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS NM INTO THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MID LEVEL  
HEIGHT-FALLS AND SUBTLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS MUCH  
OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE RESULT  
WILL BE A SWATH OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL  
AND A FEW TORNADOES...FROM KS SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF TX.  
   
..KS
 
 
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE SURFACE  
DRYLINE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KS BY LATE  
AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK  
OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. STRONG TORNADOES ARE  
POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING  
AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO  
FORM OVER EAST-CENTRAL KS AND MOVE TOWARD THE KC METRO AREA THIS  
EVENING...POSING A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE QUALITY REMAINS A FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS REGION...AND  
LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.  
NEVERTHELESS...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TORNADOES WITH THE  
MORE LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  

   
..OK
 
 
THE MAJORITY OF 12Z CAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT A FEW INTENSE CELLS  
WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON NEAR A DRYLINE BULGE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST OK  
OR THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO A  
PROGRESSIVELY MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR  
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. MOST MODEL  
GUIDANCE INDICATES ONLY ONE OR TWO STORMS WILL PERSIST IN THIS  
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...BUT VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TORNADOES ARE  
POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY BY EARLY/MID EVENING  
AS IT MOVES OUT OF MAX CAPE CORRIDOR AND INTO SLIGHTLY STRONGER  
CAPPING OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN OK.  
   
..TX
 
 
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE  
DRYLINE OVER WEST CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS DIFFER ON  
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT THOSE STORMS THAT FORM SHOULD POSE A RISK  
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  
   
..NC
 
 
12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT MUCH OF NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
RATHER STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND COOL MID LEVEL  
TEMPERATURES SUGGEST A THREAT OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN  
THE STRONGEST CELLS.  
 
..HART/BUNTING.. 05/08/2016  

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Will be watching this midday convection over south-central Kansas. It's a bit more robust than progged, but should not have a major impact on destabilization through the afternoon. If anything, it may locally keep LCLs down a touch and lay down a boundary or two for storm development later.

My target is northwest Oklahoma to south-central Kansas near AVK/P28. This area should have the greatest overlay of favorable shear and moderate instability. It's also close to the surface low and stronger forcing aloft.

Southwest Oklahoma could be good too, but I have questions about storm coverage/capping. The latest HRRR is also showing less impressive UH tracks in general across KS/OK.

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The split hatched tor areas on the 1630 UTC outlook amuse me. Definitely can't complain that these human forecasters are ignoring the CAMs today!

Somewhat reminiscent of February 2nd, although a very different meteorological setup.

Today's 1630 outlook seems nit-picky to not include NW Oklahoma in the hatched 10%. (Or maybe I'm being nit-picky?) I wouldn't be surprised if there is a gap in storms near to just north of I-40, but even that could be a relatively small spatial area.

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Think this is the setup most similar to May 6, 2015 since that day. 

For the most part... Except Moisture was better that day, lapse rates and mid-upper level winds will be better today. That day saw an impressive amount of tornadoes... 59 across NE/KS/OK/TX per SPC filtered reports.

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Severe watch likely to be issued east of Midland-Odessa, Abilene, San Angelo, Rio Grande Valley

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SW TO N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 081709Z - 081845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN BY 19Z AND QUICKLY

BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN

CONCERN AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.

DISCUSSION...EXTENSIVE AGITATED CU FIELD WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE

HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BIG BEND AREA NORTHEAST TO THE PERMIAN BASIN

JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE DRYLINE. INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT

COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING HAVING ALREADY ERODED CAPPING SHOULD

RESULT IN STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STRONG

DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW STORMS

TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT LARGE

HAIL AS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. STORMS MAY INITIALLY REMAIN DISCRETE

BEFORE TRANSITIONING TOWARD BOWING SEGMENTS OR GROWING UPSCALE INTO

AN E/NEWD PROPAGATING MCS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS

TRANSITION IN STORM MODE WOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND

THREAT. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL TX

BY 19Z. STORMS MAY NOT INITIATE/MOVE INTO NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF

THE MCD AREA UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS A RESULT...WATCH

ISSUANCE MAY BE LATER THAN FURTHER SOUTHWEST.

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