PennMan Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 KBJC gusted to 47kts last evening, and was gusting over 40kts for 4 consecutive hours. Made for a noisy night with our patio furniture bumping around and the windows creaking pretty loudly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 ONI value came in -0.5C for July-Sept. NOAA PDO value came in at -1.00 for Sept (a small drop off from August). Still looking like a modoki La Nina with a neutral PDO for the winter to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 5, 2016 Author Share Posted October 5, 2016 First frost of the season here - it was briefly below 30 on the edge of town, with a dew point of 21. Yesterday was about 60 with some breeze. We had a cold front come through on Monday evening (10/03). We hit a 10 dew point, with the cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 5, 2016 Author Share Posted October 5, 2016 There is a wildfire outside of Pueblo with 4845 acres. Apparently they are evacuating 1900 people. Ironically, this is the foothill of the Wet Mountains https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet_Mountains http://www.kktv.com/content/news/Fire-crews-responding-to-fire-in-Beulah-395713291.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 5, 2016 Author Share Posted October 5, 2016 Tomorrow's snowstorm/rainstorm looks pretty weak. We needed the water. The models have 0.1" to 0.4" in higher elevations. I might be lucky to get 0.1" as the models have just barely some 0.1" areas in the plains of CO. The models predict snow for Valentine, Nebraska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 yeah- dry late summer followed by dry fall to the extent CO has had in the Front Range now has no precedent at least in the last decade that I can find. OTOH, my in-laws on the FL Atlantic barrier islands are evacuating. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Matthew & Hermine are trying to provide us hints for the winter I think. Storms with semi-similar tracks happened in 1898, 1954, 1960, 1979, 1985, 1999. Definitely some interesting years. Am thinking specifically of the Georgia Hurricane, Hazel, Donna, David, Kate, and Floyd. To me, Matthew is kind of a blend of David (track), Donna (strength), and Hazel (timing). My winter outlook (I put it in the OK thread), has 1955 and 1960 factored in pretty heavily, so it is interesting to see the hurricane tracks as somewhat similar. Makes me think I'm on the right path for the Atlantic influence on the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 8, 2016 Author Share Posted October 8, 2016 On 10/6/2016 at 4:14 PM, raindancewx said: Matthew & Hermine are trying to provide us hints for the winter I think. The main winter storm track will be in north Florida?? Just kidding. I got 0.14" rain yesterday. Where I was (a couple of miles away,) it hailed in the afternoon yesterday, with a loud crack of thunder. There was 1/2" hail for a few minutes. It was the nastiest thunderstorm I have had this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 8, 2016 Author Share Posted October 8, 2016 another tree picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mercurial Posted October 9, 2016 Share Posted October 9, 2016 Winter Storm Watch issued IMBY. Extremely high bust potential but yeah i dun care. Just make it snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mercurial Posted October 9, 2016 Share Posted October 9, 2016 Great weenie imagery from our local NWS. Pretty unusual that a strong cold front like this is penetrating through Glacier Park and the continental divide this early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 9, 2016 Share Posted October 9, 2016 I actually like the cold centered over Montana to Minnesota for a good portion of the winter but we'll have to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mercurial Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 Would be nice. Nice 1" cartopper here so far this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 11, 2016 Author Share Posted October 11, 2016 That's a beautiful pic. It won't be long before it happens here. Well, sort of. The next 15 days should be above average here, with short-lived colder weather. It's nice to know the NWS Podunk is working for us 24 hours a day, 6 days per week. But what will the weather be on Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 The PDO dropped again in Sept using JISAO/Nate Mantua's method for calculation. The value was 0.45. Will be interesting to see if people are still predicting it to be positive in the winter - neutral (near 0) is most likely. AMO was also quite warm for October - 0.469. La Nina (Modoki) still looking pretty healthy really, although I expect it to peak between now and November 30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 13, 2016 Author Share Posted October 13, 2016 Tuesday: high of 72.6 Wednesday: high of 44.6 Thursday: high of 78.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 15, 2016 Share Posted October 15, 2016 I standardized US winter (mean high) temperature anomalies from 1931-32 to 2015-16 if anyone is curious. Everything uses a -8 to +8 scale in increments of 2F against 1981-2010. Overall, the US had colder winters when the Atlantic was cold (1963-1993), with the late 1970s in particular very cold. The Dustbowl winters were kind of nuts, 1933-34 and 1935-36 especially. https://www.dropbox.com/s/ylxy8x6e3p14hsd/US Winter Temperature Anomalies.ppt?dl=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 16, 2016 Author Share Posted October 16, 2016 RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 0523 PM MDT SAT OCT 15 2016 ... RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT DENVER CO... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85 DEGREES WAS SET AT DENVER CO TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 83 SET IN 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 Been hot here too - 85F yesterday (although it dropped all the way to 49F). 83F today. Albuquerque tends to see big-time February snowstorms when the mean high in Sept hardly drops in October. A "near" normal drop is 11F, anything <=9.6F is a fairly low drop historically. Currently the transition is ~83.2F-->75.9F - definitely on the low side (7.3F). Looks warm through the 18th. After that...should drop off quickly. Will be interesting to see if we can stay above 73.6F or not. My long term assumption was that the impressive heat in July would cycle through in Oct at a lower intensity (less warm), but then reverse in January as intense cold. Actually think we're pretty warm for much of Oct/Nov/Dec in CO/NM/UT/AZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mercurial Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 52F and drizzly up here this afternoon at 48.5N latitude. We've had over 3 inches of liquid (2.5 inches at KGPI) so far this month, compared to a normal of about 0.5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 Send some south. At Borger, TX this afternoon (central Panhandle) it was 100 F with a dewpoint of 9, for a RH of 3%. Wow. High was 101. Wonder how dry it needs to be to have a pan of water evaporate before it hits the ground, kind of like water freezing when it gets down to -40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 17, 2016 Author Share Posted October 17, 2016 Denver has been +4.4F for the month (Oct 1-16). The GEFS 5-day average surface temp anomalies (tropicaltidbits.com) have the Denver area with close to 0 anomaly (day 1-5) and positive (day 6-10 and day 11-15). I thought there might be a change at some point. Note: wind gusts of 35-55mph around here, from the NW. Greeley airport had 51kt (59mph) - a severe non-thunderstorm wind. Most of the time, trees take relatively little damage from brief gusts under 60mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 7 hours ago, Chinook said: Denver has been +4.4F for the month (Oct 1-16). The GEFS 5-day average surface temp anomalies (tropicaltidbits.com) have the Denver area with close to 0 anomaly (day 1-5) and positive (day 6-10 and day 11-15). I thought there might be a change at some point. Note: wind gusts of 35-55mph around here, from the NW. Greeley airport had 51kt (59mph) - a severe non-thunderstorm wind. Most of the time, trees take relatively little damage from brief gusts under 60mph. Your post reminded me of something - there seems to be some kind of sharp climate threshold here for snowfall. When Dec-Feb mean highs are 51.5F (+2F) or higher here...odds of getting a a snowier than avg cold season (>=9.6") virtually vanish (2/20). I'm not sure why that threshold exists, even in a really "cold" winter down here the highs are in the 40s most days, and really half of the days get to the 50s even in a cold February. I guess it's just losing hours of opportunity for when it is cold enough to snow. But we have no trouble getting above average snows below a mean high of 51.5F. The split is pretty dramatic though: <=47.5F mean high DJF: 18 winters, 11 snowier than avg cold seasons (60%) >47.5F and <51.5F mean high DJF: 47 winters, 23 snowier than avg cold seasons (49%) >=51.F mean high for DJF: 20 winters, 2 snowier than avg cold seasons (10%) Last two DJFs here were just barely below 51.5F, and we topped 9.6" each time due to El Nino/wetter than normal conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 On 10/17/2016 at 1:31 PM, Chinook said: Denver has been +4.4F for the month (Oct 1-16). The GEFS 5-day average surface temp anomalies (tropicaltidbits.com) have the Denver area with close to 0 anomaly (day 1-5) and positive (day 6-10 and day 11-15). I thought there might be a change at some point. Note: wind gusts of 35-55mph around here, from the NW. Greeley airport had 51kt (59mph) - a severe non-thunderstorm wind. Most of the time, trees take relatively little damage from brief gusts under 60mph. We have a ways to go yet but +3.8 for the month would get us to the top 20 warmest. I think we have a very good shot, looking forward. My first snow prediction of Nov 3rd is looking a bit shaky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 19, 2016 Author Share Posted October 19, 2016 old cottonwood tree on a windy, sunny day (yesterday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 22, 2016 Author Share Posted October 22, 2016 Distant spaceship. oops. Lenticular cloud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mercurial Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 Wow, nice. Can't remember the last time I saw so much sun. Late Sept, probably. This month has been about 5x as wet as normal, and we've had about 18 consecutive days of rain or snow starting in early Oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mercurial Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 Love me some of the POAMA images posted in the NYC subforum today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 22, 2016 Author Share Posted October 22, 2016 that looks suspiciously like the La Nina composite 500mb anomaly using these years, in North America. It would seem that this upcoming winter would be near neutral ENSO, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 22, 2016 Author Share Posted October 22, 2016 I am starting to wonder if weather conditions this winter will favor the enhancement of the drought in the Southeast, and possibly Southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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