JoMo Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 So far there's been a (preliminary) confirmed EF0 in Mustang, EF1 in Luther, and EF1 in Tulsa, with further investigations ongoing. (TUES NIGHT): And an EF-1 near Seneca, MO just to my south. This was just severe warned with no "Tornado Possible" tag. Apparently a 100 mph microburst occurred in Girard, KS as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 I feel like your posts are getting more depressing with each passing year lol.Haha, probably. I still get excited for certain types of setups, but it's just been forever since we had a real classic Plains season. Last year's constant nickle and diming was actually decent chase wise IMO, but the seasons of multiple really obvious big days like 2007-8 (maybe 2010) are distant enough that we've probably all earned a depressing reputation in here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 I've been impressed on the synoptics for Friday for the last week or so and seeing the SPC go hatched is definitely encouraging but sadly it's too iffy for me to drive from Northern Ohio to the region. If I were chasing right now I'd probably target either Wichita Falls or Ardmore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 I notice the discussion about the morning convection which could hamper things, but when looking at the models, I noticed a few things. One the convection looked to be elevated and two the progression was to the northeast away from the warm sector versus moving east or southeast and pinching off the warm sector. With strong dynamics and a good LLJ the warm sector should recover very quickly through the morning hours, though I do think the NAM is a bit over the top, the GFS is probably too low. The Euro is probably a bit closer to reality though it does fire things up by 18-21z. The thing is even though things are firing by midday, that doesn't mitigate the severity of the storms as there will be ample instability and wind shear in place. I know that some look for optimal timing on every system but early initiation isn't always deal breaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 I think we all agree the NAM forecast for instability is overdone tomorrow, but if there are even 3-4 hours of clearing after morning convection I can definitely see a scenario where we get a few tornado reports in OK/north TX Friday late afternoon and evening. Wind profile will be adequate, warm frontal boundary will be in play, and cloud bases will be very low. Just get the feeling that we may end up with an over performer tomorrow after the bust this past Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 FWIW, another classic example of the NCEP HRRR likely decimating warm sector moisture via overmixing, where the HRRRx maintains near-surface moisture similar to other guidance (and almost certainly more similar to reality, but we can check back this afternoon). HRRR 22z HRRRx 22z The operational model is 5-10 F lower on 2 m dews over a huge section of the southern Plains on a 12 h forecast. It is remarkable that it's still relatively accurate with CI and even the intensity/longevity of storms, given that the PBL thermodynamic fields are practically unusable in most cases with shallow moisture and an EML. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 Forbes for tomorrow. Rest is on his page. (These are his highest values) TORCON - 5 south-central and southeast OK, north-central TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 Some interesting signals/storms on some of the convection-allowing guidance this morning, though still plenty of disagreement about warm sector clearance and initiation. I should know better than to read too much into these runs, though, as I suspect Brett will be right about all of his concerns. Meanwhile, the 12Z SPC WRF has widespread rain/storms throughout the day and little/no discrete convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 A little off topic, but thought this would be a good place to mention this with severe weather ongoing. (For anyone that watches TVN) Kelley Williamson just mentioned on his stream that TVN is closing down. Edit: This was just added few mins ago After careful thought and consideration, we have decided to discontinue the TVNweather Live Storm chasing service. When we launched the TVN live streaming platform 4 years ago, our mission was to grow a platform for storm chasers to share their severe weather reports and experiences in the field with weather enthusiasts, news media, emergency managers, and especially the people in the path of these dangerous storms. The platform has provided many storm chasers with the opportunity to share their chases with the world and we consider the overall experience a success. Many people and organizations have also come to rely on it for public safety and early warning and we know it will be missed. Unfortunately and for various reasons, we can no longer provide the level of service everyone has grown to expect and as such we would rather simply shut the service down rather than provide a substandard viewing experience. We are not seeking options or contributions to continue operating the Live Storm Chasing platform, but simply would like to thank our loyal supporters and especially our network of hard-working storm chasers for growing this incredible product over the last 4 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 Some interesting signals/storms on some of the convection-allowing guidance this morning, though still plenty of disagreement about warm sector clearance and initiation. I should know better than to read too much into these runs, though, as I suspect Brett will be right about all of his concerns. Meanwhile, the 12Z SPC WRF has widespread rain/storms throughout the day and little/no discrete convection. not overly excited about tomorrow since I think lingering convection will ruin it... But it is interesting that three different Hi-res models show a UH-track over the OKC metro. Waiting for 1730Z outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 Man that sucks about TVN shutting down... That was always my go to for watching chaser streams. What else is there really? Looks like SPC expanded SLGT risk and hatched area north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 Man that sucks about TVN shutting down... That was always my go to for watching chaser streams. What else is there really? Agreed. TVN was by far the best web platform. It's been a staple on many chases for me to cheat and check out storms in different areas. SevereStudios seems to be the most popular alternative, but their website is horrendous and still heavily Flash-based. I've found it practically unusable if I'm not at home on my desktop. ChaserTV developed a web app close to being on par with TVN's a year or two ago, but no one seems to use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 Agreed. TVN was by far the best web platform. It's been a staple on many chases for me to cheat and check out storms in different areas. SevereStudios seems to be the most popular alternative, but their website is horrendous and still heavily Flash-based. I've found it practically unusable if I'm not at home on my desktop. ChaserTV developed a web app close to being on-par with TVN's a year or two ago, but no one seems to use it. flash blows... But yeah ChaserTV was actually really good. But everybody--literally-- stopped using it for some reason... I imagine that will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc3395 Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 Interesting. Still a slight but it has been extended farther north. Definitely think upgrades may be coming if ample destabilization occurs. Outflow boundaries could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 Agreed. TVN was by far the best web platform. It's been a staple on many chases for me to cheat and check out storms in different areas. SevereStudios seems to be the most popular alternative, but their website is horrendous and still heavily Flash-based. I've found it practically unusable if I'm not at home on my desktop. ChaserTV developed a web app close to being on par with TVN's a year or two ago, but no one seems to use it. Yeah they were by far the best, actually pretty shocked they are shutting down mid plains season with no real notification as to why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 Yeah they were by far the best, actually pretty shocked they are shutting down mid plains season with no real notification as to why. thinking it has to deal with their ability to maintain the website when there is high traffic. Believe they shutdown on Tuesday due to high traffic. Must be that they need to upgrade their servers, but they don't want to spend the money... Just my guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 Yeah they were by far the best, actually pretty shocked they are shutting down mid plains season with no real notification as to why. Reed Timmer has moved on to Accuweather and WarningAware. Here's TVN's statement though: After careful thought and consideration, we have decided to discontinue the TVNweather Live Storm chasing service. When we launched the TVN live streaming platform 4 years ago, our mission was to grow a platform for storm chasers to share their severe weather reports and experiences in the field with weather enthusiasts, news media, emergency managers, and especially the people in the path of these dangerous storms. The platform has provided many storm chasers with the opportunity to share their chases with the world and we consider the overall experience a success. Many people and organizations have also come to rely on it for public safety and early warning and we know it will be missed. Unfortunately and for various reasons, we can no longer provide the level of service everyone has grown to expect and as such we would rather simply shut the service down rather than provide a substandard viewing experience. We are not seeking options or contributions to continue operating the Live Storm Chasing platform, but simply would like to thank our loyal supporters and especially our network of hard-working storm chasers for growing this incredible product over the last 4 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 Well that absolutely blows... Anyone aware of another Android app that has chaser streams? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 FWIW, another classic example of the NCEP HRRR likely decimating warm sector moisture via overmixing, where the HRRRx maintains near-surface moisture similar to other guidance (and almost certainly more similar to reality, but we can check back this afternoon). HRRR 22z HRRRx 22z The operational model is 5-10 F lower on 2 m dews over a huge section of the southern Plains on a 12 h forecast. It is remarkable that it's still relatively accurate with CI and even the intensity/longevity of storms, given that the PBL thermodynamic fields are practically unusable in most cases with shallow moisture and an EML. Is there a plan to get HRRRx on PivotalWeather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 I feel like your posts are getting more depressing with each passing year lol. Yours too. I think we've all been beaten down quite a bit past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 Well that absolutely blows... Anyone aware of another Android app that has chaser streams? Amen to this. What a bummer for anyone who lived vicariously though TVN streams. Same question but for iPhone - any decent alternative? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 Is there a plan to get HRRRx on PivotalWeather?Looked into it a little. It's possible, but the unreliability of the data feed makes it more challenging to configure. Hopefully sometime this spring, but no guarantees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 Is there a plan to get HRRRx on PivotalWeather? I've heard that it is replacing the HRRR on May 12. I haven't heard through official channels, just some friends. If that does indeed happen, the HRRR will be vastly better, and it will be on pivotal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 I'm out chasing the eastern Texas panhandle today. May drop into northern West Texas if necessary. While the HRRR may be somewhat overdone, I expect at least one or two photogenic supercells. Large hail is the main threat given lapse rates and favorable shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 18Z NAM models looking a bit better for tomorrow. Wondering if we'll get the GFS and Euro onboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 If you're talking about the new version of the HRRR replacing the current one in NCEP operations, the current target is late June. I've heard that it is replacing the HRRR on May 12. I haven't heard through official channels, just some friends. If that does indeed happen, the HRRR will be vastly better, and it will be on pivotal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 18Z NAM models looking a bit better for tomorrow. Wondering if we'll get the GFS and Euro onboard. Looked like a step toward the GFS to me...has precip through central Oklahoma thru 21z. Would likely mitigate substantial destabilization. Also lost the off the charts sigtor values. Still has some very high values but not as ridiculous as the past several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 12z Euro looks like a complete disjointed mess and 18z NAM looks like a shift down from previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 Looked like a step toward the GFS to me...has precip through central Oklahoma thru 21z. Would likely mitigate substantial destabilization. Also lost the off the charts sigtor values. Still has some very high values but not as ridiculous as the past several runs. Could be compared with the 06 or 12Z runs, last I looked at was 00Z last night. Precip definitely ruins it...thats been concnern for tomorrow...ongoing precip will limit svr chances. I'll make a decision tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.