jm1220 Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 Here it comes here in Austin. Not expecting much. Edit: Kinda windy here but nothing approaching severe. A rumble or two of thunder. Heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 I'm not sure the hail even verified for yesterday. I know in a few spots it did and on a couple cells, so it may have verified overall but east of I35 in OK was most certainly a bust. Biggest we encountered was dime size and we were on some of the larger storms that crossed east of I35 and the VIL/POSH and actual reports seem to indicate 1-1.25 inch hail for all but one location in eastern ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 I'm not sure the hail even verified for yesterday. I know in a few spots it did and on a couple cells, so it may have verified overall but east of I35 in OK was most certainly a bust. Biggest we encountered was dime size and we were on some of the larger storms that crossed east of I35 and the VIL/POSH and actual reports seem to indicate 1-1.25 inch hail for all but one location in eastern ok? Didn't see anything larger than pea size here in Topeka. The flooding here is bad though, backyard is under water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nearpass Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 5 injured, several properties destroyed: http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2016/04/27/five-hurt-as-tornados-rip-through-grayson-county/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-Helicity- Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 I couldn't believe SPC went with the PDS Watch yesterday. The veer-back-veer wind profiles should have been a huge warning sign for storm mode. Corfidi... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 Next event coming up has subtle indications of some VBV on it as well. Could be something worth watching, NAM(lol) doesn't have it yet, but GFS and the 4km do, though the 4km looks convectively contaminated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 I couldn't believe SPC went with the PDS Watch yesterday. The veer-back-veer wind profiles should have been a huge warning sign for storm mode. Corfidi... I agree the PDS was a poor choice, but to defend the forecasters... more than just one person comes up with the decisions over at SPC, so lets not throw Corfidi's name under the bus because it was the only one listed at the bottom of that watch text. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 I couldn't believe SPC went with the PDS Watch yesterday. The veer-back-veer wind profiles should have been a huge warning sign for storm mode. Corfidi... As bad as that PDS watch was, I'd cut the guy some slack. He's been doing it for well over 20 years and is a great mind in meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 This appears to be one of those Murphy's Law years when it comes to storm structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-Helicity- Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 As bad as that PDS watch was, I'd cut the guy some slack. He's been doing it for well over 20 years and is a great mind in meteorology. He's been very bullish over the last year or so. I remember another PDS and a few other high end tornado watches of his busting last season that didn't make much sense at the time. And, when the 2000z outlook was issued, it almost seemed like there was an internal disagreement between forecasters. Everyone should be on the same page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 I agree the PDS was a poor choice, but to defend the forecasters... more than just one person comes up with the decisions over at SPC, so lets not throw Corfidi's name under the bus because it was the only one listed at the bottom of that watch text. yes, plus they also collaborate with NWS WFOs to decide on what to do... Obviously OUN/FWD felt there was a good threat for sig tornadoes too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 I don't think it's fair to call out specific forecasters for yesterday's PDS bust, given their expertise, years of experience in the field, and the difficulties of writing forecasts for public consumption. You have to give them respect for that. That said, I do think certain forecasters have certain biases/tendencies that play into some of the decisions that are made. That is why sometimes you'll see discrepancies between different products issued by different forecasters. From what I understand, even though NWS technically issues the watches, the SPC staff member(s) executes the coordination on the probabilities and the region that is included in the watch. Somewhat similar to the relationship between the President and Congress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 So far there's been a (preliminary) confirmed EF0 in Mustang, EF1 in Luther, and EF1 in Tulsa, with further investigations ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 James Spann talks to Weathergeeks (TWC) show about lessons learned April 27, 2011 (This show is from 2015) The 3rd part of this is more about April 27, 2011 than the first two parts. https://weather.com/tv/shows/wx-geeks/video/anatomy-of-an-outbreak-april-27th-2011-pt-1 https://weather.com/tv/shows/wx-geeks/video/anatomy-of-an-outbreak-april-27th-2011-pt-2 https://weather.com/tv/shows/wx-geeks/video/anatomy-of-an-outbreak-april-27th-2011-pt-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildwestpb Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 So far there's been a (preliminary) confirmed EF0 in Mustang, EF1 in Luther, and EF1 in Tulsa, with further investigations ongoing. Well, looks like Smokey_mountain_vols got his tornado in Tulsa last night he was not wanting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 Couple of tor-warned storms near the IA/NE border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 Seeing some rotation on that storm E of Horton, KS; storms to the SE seem to be cutting off the inflow however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 He's been very bullish over the last year or so. I remember another PDS and a few other high end tornado watches of his busting last season that didn't make much sense at the time. And, when the 2000z outlook was issued, it almost seemed like there was an internal disagreement between forecasters. Everyone should be on the same page. Sorry but when you say everyone should be on the same page I disagree. You absolutely do not want group think in these types of situations. You need to be able to discuss AND disagree on some variables to figure out a path forward. What if one member of SPC thought yesterday should have been a high risk and all the others just agreed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 27, 2016 Author Share Posted April 27, 2016 Brief tor retorted with a low topped supercell near Hepburn, IA recently. Numerous funnel clouds reported with other storms in SE. NE/SW. IA/NE. KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 Yesterday's outlook verifications by outlook-time and weather-type. Originally posted by @jimmyc42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 27, 2016 Author Share Posted April 27, 2016 Confirmed tor near Stanton, IA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 Rotation has broadened quite a bit as a result of that storm to the south interfering, not sure that's still on the ground. Edit: seems to be cycling with a nice inflow notch forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 Concerning circulation W/NW of Ralston. All of this happens after I leave the Omaha area. KETV: http://www.ketv.com/shared/live-video/27988924 edit: Lowering/wall cloud over western Omaha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 TOR warned now. Nothing on the ground yet. edit: Funnel taking shape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 Omaha funnel from Twitter: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 Debris reported around 132nd and Blondo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioWX Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA 344 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY... AT 343 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN OMAHA...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE. AT 343 PM...AN OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE OBSERVED A TORNADO ALONG 132ND STREET JUST OF DODGE...HEADING NORTH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 27, 2016 Author Share Posted April 27, 2016 Copley on the tor warned storm west of Omaha... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 I wish they would edit the word Large out of that PDS warning. It's not condensed to the ground. Dangerous is ok to use given the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 Velocity loop on that storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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