Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

la Niña Watch


Geos

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 94
  • Created
  • Last Reply

duh, even if this winter doesn't deliver in the final snowfall total department (and who really cares about that) i like the prospects for cutters and active weather

Ending up on the wrong side of a storm all winter is like going to the bar every weekend with your friend and he's always taking home the chick.

Screw that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

that's the ideal setup

50-60s all winter with a single 2' bomb

Ending up on the wrong side of a storm all winter is like going to the bar every weekend with your friend and he's always taking home the chick.

Screw that.

Nah... More like scoring the hottest chick one or two nights and getting to chill at your sick bachelor pad the rest of the time. As opposed your friend who's in a steady, but often boring long-term relationship.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nah... More like scoring the hottest chick one or two nights and getting to chill at your sick bachelor pad the rest of the time. As opposed your friend who's in a steady, but often boring long-term relationship.

Aleks plan is more like a lot of maturbation and maybe a weekend at the bunny ranch once a year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Name me one year that happened!?! Edit: in the Lwr Lks, not the EC

Alek would be better off moving to somewhere like Austin, TX. He would like the weather and politics, plus he could just fly into an EC city before a big dog and fly out afterwards.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Alek would be better off moving to somewhere like Austin, TX. He would like the weather and politics, plus he could just fly into an EC city before a big dog and fly out afterwards.

 

Alek likes his lake breezes. You're confusing him with Saukville.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

ENSO weeklies are dropping pretty fast now as the SOI climbs and the Indian Ocean cools substantially. Considering the subsurface cold anomalies, we could see a significant La Nina by summer's end as the cold bubble surfaces. TAO/TRITON analysis already shows an area of -1C SST anomalies from 125-140W longitude along the equator.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 4 weeks later...

The weekly 3.4 number came in at -0.4.  After flirting with either side of 0 for a while, this looks like the real deal and it should remain negative going forward.  That being said, this La Nina is developing fairly slowly to this point (compared to some others in recent years) which makes any talk of a strong Nina questionable at best.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The weekly 3.4 number came in at -0.4. After flirting with either side of 0 for a while, this looks like the real deal and it should remain negative going forward. That being said, this La Nina is developing fairly slowly to this point (compared to some others in recent years) which makes any talk of a strong Nina questionable at best.

Accuweather already released a winter graphic with them banking on a weak La Niña. I was also watching a YouTube video of some forecaster (forgot who it was) he also said any talk of a strong La Niña would be tossed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

A central based Nina like this screams active fall severe season.

Should be a banner fall and spring for severe weather. Most first year Niñas are quite active, with only a few examples of fairly quiet seasons. If the PDO can get to more neutral or negative, will further help ensure an active severe weather pattern.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Should be a banner fall and spring for severe weather. Most first year Niñas are quite active, with only a few examples of fairly quiet seasons. If the PDO can get to more neutral or negative, will further help ensure an active severe weather pattern.

Yeah the PDO is at least trending that way.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Surprised this thread hasn't caught more attention lately. The ensemble means now support a very weak La Niña for the upcoming winter, barely meeting La Niña threshold, a far cry from the super Niña we all had discussed back in spring. Pretty interesting watching this enso state unfold. As was discussed earlier for potential analogs 73-74 popped up a few times, but now leaning more towards 83-84 being a closer match.

Wasn't a bad winter. In fact December was VERY cold that year.

Overall, a very cold winter for the conus.

post-5916-0-13476000-1468180204_thumb.pn

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 1 month later...

 

Since the demise of the big 2015-16 El Niño in April, the tropical Pacific has been loitering around in neutral… and now forecasters think it’s likely to stay that way through the winter. For now, we’re taking down the La Niña Watch, since it no longer looks favorable for La Niña conditions to develop within the next six months.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 4 months later...

Have had 4 consecutive trimonthly readings of -0.5 or colder.  Just need the NDJ reading to come in at -0.5 or lower and this will officially be a La Nina episode.  Sort of a moot point though as there have been Nina tendencies in the pattern no matter how you slice it. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...