Jump to content
  • Welcome to American Weather

    Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to contribute to this site by submitting your own content or replying to existing content. You'll be able to customize your profile, receive reputation points as a reward for submitting content, while also communicating with other members via your own private inbox, plus much more! This message will be removed once you have signed in.

Ginx snewx

Winter 2016/2017 because its never too early

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I typically just wait until around thanksgiving to see if my knee is acting up and then check to see if the earth is lined up with the moons of Jupiter. That should tell us if it's going to be a doozy. 

May as well....accuracy would be on par with that of most contemporary methods.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not sure which way I'm leaning TBH.....the QBO and IOD give me pause, but I think everything else looks as good as it can this early, which isn't saying a ton.

 

The IOD just got a little more negative over the past week but it is what it is. I wouldn't even include it in a winter outlook or worry about it. The models show it going neutral this winter but does neutral even matter as far as forcing and feedbacks after the record negative run we have been in? I posted some of my thoughts on this winter over in the NYC forum if you want to give it a look and chime in 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How about dry October with under 2"

Nina autumn.  Pretty classic wx wise.  November should start to show winter's hand mid month and beyond.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Ok, yeah that makes a lot more sense. I was thinking that if it were for 20" storms, that sounded like way too many.

 

But yeah, you're data looks correct except you can also drop Jan 2014 for ORH...pretty weird that ORH has had fewer 15" storms than BOS in the past 5 years. Though there are a lot of "close calls". They probably have more 12"+ events fairly easily.

Another poor proofread on my part.  That was meant to be Jan. 2011 when they got 21".

Looking at 12"+ added only 2 to Boston's haul, but pushed ORH to 12, including one last Feb.  (I think 12.  They had 14.7" during Jan. 25-27, 2011, and I'm guessing that 26-27 with 12.3" was the latter of two storms, also that Feb. 1 and 2 were two events, thus not making the cut.)  I'm still trailing both, with 6 such events - Apr. 11, Mar. 13, Mar. 14 (times 2), Nov. 14, and Jan. 15.  Only the first and last topped 13.5".  (First in avg. snow for the past 6 winters, though, thanks to climo:  My numbers say, BOS 58.8", ORH 80.6", MBY 86.9".)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Dry September. Winter cancel.

Maybe.  10 BN Sept. at my place were followed by avg. 92" snow; 8 AN Sept. followed by avg. 81".  Big players:  Sept. 2000 had 1.77" precip and a huge winter, last Sept. precip was 5.92".  Sept. avg. is 3.90" thru last year, now down to 3.75".

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/20/2016 at 0:14 PM, ORH_wxman said:

 

Winter forecasting is hard. There's always discussion when some new stuff comes out, and then it dies down again once it is realized that nothing can hit a seasonal forecast with accuracy that many folks want.

 

It is particularly true for New England and the metric that just about everyone cares about...snowfall. We have basically no correlation to most of this crap that goes into a seasonal forecast (ENSO, QBO, PDO, IO, etc)...most of the stuff that would be useful isn't very predictable such as the NAO. It's easier to predict temps for a place like the southeast U.S. or parts of the west coast where the ENSO correlation is higher.

 

I cannot remember how many times since like 2000 when I was lurking on ne.weather when everything looked awesome for a winter and it sucked or vice-versa (remember the torches predicted before the strong Nino of 2010-2011 or the epic winter forecasts before 2001-2002?). Sometimes, winter looked horrible for many in the east but we would make out great like 2007-2008 or to a lesser extent 2012-2013.

 

I'd probably never feel good about a single set of variables in SNE for snowfall...ok, maybe predict above average snowfall in a weak Nino...lol...but that's it.

 

2007-8 ... nickel and dimed to death, and enjoyed every bit of it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I looked at the driest Octobers for Boston and found these...

year.........Oct precip...seasonal snowfall...mei enso

1940-41......0.76"..........48".....el nino

1946-47......0.34"..........19".....neutral+

1947-48......1.13"..........89".....neutral-

1967-68......0.96"..........45".....neutral-

1994-95......0.41"..........15".....el nino

2001-02......0.98"..........15".....neutral-

2013-14......0.61"..........59".....neutral-

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Before today, BOS had 2.86 in the bank for October.  Now up to around 4.  Probably finish out October with 5+.  How did the dry October in Boston narrative for this year get started?  Totally bogus.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, uncle W said:

I looked at the driest Octobers for Boston and found these...

year.........Oct precip...seasonal snowfall...mei enso

1940-41......0.76"..........48".....el nino

1946-47......0.34"..........19".....neutral+

1947-48......1.13"..........89".....neutral-

1967-68......0.96"..........45".....neutral-

1994-95......0.41"..........15".....el nino

2001-02......0.98"..........15".....neutral-

2013-14......0.61"..........59".....neutral-

 

Average is 41.4", very close to their average.  (SD must be humongous, though.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

They had one last winter?

Hows that dry western Mass super wet EMA correlation go again or did you just throw out how about a dry October just because.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

They had one last winter?

Yeah most of SE MA was actually above average for snowfall. BOS itself was a bit below but far better off than further west compared to average. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Big flip to colder mid NOV weeklies

Good to hear. The Arctic actually looks pretty good even on the 8-10 day means I posted above. Just need to work on the Pacifc.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

has anyone ever seen a FA outlook that didn't resemble this in one way-shape-or-another?

 

2017-us-weather-map

The interesting part is it might very well be right about the Plains, Ohio valley, and NE.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×