Winter 2016/2017 because its never too early

[powderfreak]

Next winter will be a major ratter imho. Mild, dry, threatening futility in many locales. Ninas that suck are the worst.

I wonder what the chances are for back to back near futility for probably half the New England land mass?

[weathafella]

I wonder what the chances are for back to back near futility for probably half the New England land mass?

How is your average over the past 10 years? Sure this year was ridiculous but if you average it all out...?

[tamarack]

I wonder what the chances are for back to back near futility for probably half the New England land mass?

Could happen. Farmington's least snowy winter since 1893 is 1980-81. 2nd least is 1979-80, and the two are only 1" apart. (3rd is 2015-16, about 2.5" more than 80-81.)

[ORH_wxman]

Could happen. Farmington's least snowy winter since 1893 is 1980-81. 2nd least is 1979-80, and the two are only 1" apart. (3rd is 2015-16, about 2.5" more than 80-81.)

 

We've had plenty of instances of back to back ratters. Just not recently..so we've been lucky on that front but it's coming. I think the last back to back ratters (I'm defining a ratter here as less than 50" of snow, even though you could make some arguments against such a crude measure) here were '98-'99 and '99-'00, though '98-'99 wasn't a ratter everywhere in SNE, SE areas actually didn't do too badly.

 

Before that , you'd have to go back to '90-'91 and '91-'92. Of course, you could extend that to '89-'90 and '88-'89 too...then a couple more in '84-'85 and '85-'86...before going back to your two examples which were awful down here too.

 

So we're certainly "due" for back to back ratters, but that doesn't really mean anything. Next year could be a very snowy La Nina...and we'd press the reset button all over again.

[Typhoon Tip]

....feels like winter 2016-2017 just started out there today  

[CoolMike]

How is your average over the past 10 years? Sure this year was ridiculous but if you average it all out...?

 

I can hazard a guess: Well below normal average over the last 10 years for Mt. Mansfield.  Relative to any reasonable long-range normal.

Sometimes people seem to forget that even last year was below normal snowfall for Mansfield and the green mountains.

[ORH_wxman]

I can hazard a guess: Well below normal average over the last 10 years for Mt. Mansfield.  Relative to any reasonable long-range normal.

Sometimes people seem to forget that even last year was below normal snowfall for Mansfield and the green mountains.

 

 

They did well in the 2000s until like 2008...but they've struggled since then. I think 2010-2011 is their only above average winter since that year, and even that winter wasn't a massive blockbuster there.

[CoastalWx]

CFS (FWIW) has a pattern we are sort of familiar with.Bit of a gradient with -EPO/+NAO

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2016042900&fh=8&xpos=0&ypos=177

[OSUmetstud]

Will, Scott et al.  What would u think is the topographic seasonal snowfall variation would be in the city of St. John's? The elevation is quite variable here...from sea level to 140 meters airport (467 ft) to 205 meters (660 ft) at the top of airport heights.  

 

The airport has an average of 132" a year. 

 

Would something like Blue Hill be a good approximation? 

[powderfreak]

Will, Scott et al.  What would u think is the topographic seasonal snowfall variation would be in the city of St. John's? The elevation is quite variable here...from sea level to 140 meters airport (467 ft) to 205 meters (660 ft) at the top of airport heights.  

 

The airport has an average of 132" a year. 

 

Would something like Blue Hill be a good approximation? 

 

Interesting discussion... inland like even around here where we have huge snowfall gradients, 500ft is a decent increase but here its not elevation as much as location.

 

By the water it does seem like even a few hundred feet makes a big difference...I'm always surprised at the Blue Hill difference as in the grand scheme of things, the elevation isn't that much different compared to say NNE elevational changes.  Like even here in Stowe in the valley there's a 700-1200ft range which is barely even visible from the mountains, as once above like 3,000ft it all looks the same.

 

I really wish we had some like 3,000ft+ spines butting up against the ocean somewhere here in the Northeastern U.S.  It would create some crazy climo differences.  Like if the Blue Hills were 3,000-4,000ft and ran from like Beverly to Plymouth, the interior coastal plain like where Benchmark40/70 lives on the other side would be a NW flow upslope zone while downsloping severely in every nor'easter.  Probably would ruin coastal storms to some degree with a lot more upslope/downslope stuff...wouldn't be like region wide 1-2 foot events.  It'd be like 4-6" and 36" depending on where the wind was coming from.

[powderfreak]

They did well in the 2000s until like 2008...but they've struggled since then. I think 2010-2011 is their only above average winter since that year, and even that winter wasn't a massive blockbuster there.

 

2010-2011 was above normal but wasn't like huge for the summits...but that winter was a big lower elevation winter.  You know how it varies some from year to year...some winters are awesome above 2,000ft while they are meh in the valleys, some winters are blockbusters at all elevations, and some winters seem better relative to normal in the lower elevations.

 

2010-2011 was pretty darn snowy for the towns around the Greens.  That's my biggest winter of my life with 156" at home (Stowe CoCoRAHS was 150.1" in the map). 

 

Some snowfall at under 1,000ft of elevation include:

J.Spin with 196.7"

Johnson with 205.8"

Underhill with 223"

Westfield with 184.5"

Hyde Park with 186.6"

 

You'll be hard pressed to find that type of seasonal totals under 1,000ft of elevation elsewhere in New England I think, outside of downeast Maine and probably up near CAR/FVE as I'm not sure of the elevations in that area.

 

Its the type of winter that happens when we get both big synoptic events AND big upslope events.  Even the January 2011 storms in SNE were dropping 8-12" up here...which if I could walk away with that out of every SNE HECS I would, lol.  You don't feel as bad missing the jackpots when you are getting 10" yourself...totally different feeling than missing the storm all together, lol.

 

 

 

It was about 30" above normal in Stowe (which is the same that 2011-2012 was below normal), but it was just really consistent that winter.

 

Consistency is something in a winter season that I know most on here like (something this winter failed big on even for those with near normal snowfall).  But 2010-2011 up here was like a textbook consistency.  It snowed every week and every month was fairly similar.

 

This is J.Spin's data for that winter but this is what I want to see with regards to consistency. 

 

[Ginx snewx]

16/17? Thread

[CoastalWx]

  The ocean warms the lower levels, but the temp usually rapidly decreases with height around these parts. You can have super adiabatic lapse rates even in winter when nearly saturated from srfc to 900mb or so. That's why Blue Hills has such a marked increase in snowfall. compared to sea level locations. Those situations where Logan is 34 and struggling to accumulate..Blue Hills is near 30 and pounding. I'm not sure if the same exists at St Johns because I imagine SSTs may be colder overall and so are the airmasses...but I'm sure it happens early in the season. I thought the general rule was 1"/100ft or so as you go up, but it easily could be more than that in those borderline airmasses where sea level is just above freezing, but temps just off the deck near 950 are like -3C or so.

[OSUmetstud]

The ocean warms the lower levels, but the temp usually rapidly decreases with height around these parts. You can have super adiabatic lapse rates even in winter when nearly saturated from srfc to 900mb or so. That's why Blue Hills has such a marked increase in snowfall. compared to sea level locations. Those situations where Logan is 34 and struggling to accumulate..Blue Hills is near 30 and pounding. I'm not sure if the same exists at St Johns because I imagine SSTs may be colder overall and so are the airmasses...but I'm sure it happens early in the season. I thought the general rule was 1"/100ft or so as you go up, but it easily could be more than that in those borderline airmasses where sea level is just above freezing, but temps just off the deck near 950 are like -3C or so.

Boundary layer isnt a problem especially december onward. Ssts are still 33 34 right now. But the winds are so intense here in many snowstorms. Orographic upslope in our last blizzard with 45 kt sustained winds had to be immense? Its why i believe forecasts busted so much.

There are the more marginal november december events where the airport can pick up 4 inches while downtown and my spot in flatrock picks up 0.5 inch or w.e.

[OSUmetstud]

best i can find. 

[OSUmetstud]

here we go.

[nzucker]

I doubt you'd see much difference in upslope between the airport at 440' and the highest elevations of St. John's at 660'. Those 200' aren't really enough to force the large-scale lift necessary for upslope snows, and it's a small area of higher elevations, not a large ridge like the Green Mountains. So if the airport averages 132", maybe the highest elevations are 140-145"? Just a guess...

I know the highest elevation in Newfoundland is the Cabox at 2,664'. I wouldn't be surprised if that area averages 350-400" of snowfall given its proximity to the ocean for Nor'easters (yet far enough inland to avoid maritime taint), the high elevation, and the dramatic prominence leading to upslope. If Jay Peak can average close to 350", then there's no reason the highest parts of Newfoundland can't be even snowier.

[OSUmetstud]

I doubt you'd see much difference in upslope between the airport at 440' and the highest elevations of St. John's at 660'. Those 200' aren't really enough to force the large-scale lift necessary for upslope snows, and it's a small area of higher elevations, not a large ridge like the Green Mountains. So if the airport averages 132", maybe the highest elevations are 140-145"? Just a guess...

I know the highest elevation in Newfoundland is the Cabox at 2,664'. I wouldn't be surprised if that area averages 350-400" of snowfall given its proximity to the ocean for Nor'easters (yet far enough inland to avoid maritime taint), the high elevation, and the dramatic prominence leading to upslope. If Jay Peak can average close to 350", then there's no reason the highest parts of Newfoundland can't be even snowier.

oh yeah they get a huge amount there,  there's a ton of ocean-effect squalls/upslope on westerly flow on the west coast. I'd bet over half there snow is upslope/ocean-effect, there. including Gros Morne. 

[OSUmetstud]

I doubt you'd see much difference in upslope between the airport at 440' and the highest elevations of St. John's at 660'. Those 200' aren't really enough to force the large-scale lift necessary for upslope snows, and it's a small area of higher elevations, not a large ridge like the Green Mountains. So if the airport averages 132", maybe the highest elevations are 140-145"? Just a guess...

I know the highest elevation in Newfoundland is the Cabox at 2,664'. I wouldn't be surprised if that area averages 350-400" of snowfall given its proximity to the ocean for Nor'easters (yet far enough inland to avoid maritime taint), the high elevation, and the dramatic prominence leading to upslope. If Jay Peak can average close to 350", then there's no reason the highest parts of Newfoundland can't be even snowier.

I was thinking something like that.  It's significant enough, though.  It could be as low as 100 to 110 near sea level in downtown itself and where I live, idk tough to say.  COOP data is sparse here and I don't find it too reliable, anyway. 

[nzucker]

I was thinking something like that. It's significant enough, though. It could be as low as 100 to 110 near sea level in downtown itself and where I live, idk tough to say. COOP data is sparse here and I don't find it too reliable, anyway.

I think the difference in snowfall between sea level and the airport (440') is going to be much larger than the difference between the airport and the town's highest point (660').

Besides the fact that the absolute elevation change is obviously larger, the first 500' of elevation seems to be critically important in areas close to the ocean (maritime climates like Newfoundland, for example). The SSTs warm only the very bottom layers of the atmosphere, and it doesn't take much elevation to get beyond that boundary layer warming. Also, the location at 440' still benefits from upslope processes linked to large-scale lift as the airmass ascends that 660' hill.

Look at J.Spin, for example. He is only at 500' elevation, but he receives a good bit of the upslope generated by the 3000'-4000' Green Mountains to his east. Even though he isn't that high up, he still benefits from the large-scale lift and precipitation enhancement in the upslope zone. While he may average 130" snowfall per year, someone at 500' elevation in the Champlain Valley (for example, on the shoulder of Snake Mountain) may only get 75" per year. Even the summit of Snake Mountain, an isolated peak at 1287' elevation in the Champlain Valley, probably receives significantly less snowfall than J.Spin at 500' because it doesn't benefit from large-scale regional upslope.

The airport at 440' in St. John's and the high point at 660' are probably much more similar in both temperature and upslope potential than to the downtown. Therefore, while the airport may receive 30" more snowfall than downtown, the high point at 660' won't get another 20-30" more than the airport. It will probably get 5-10" more, based almost solely on colder temperatures.

[OSUmetstud]

I think the difference in snowfall between sea level and the airport (440') is going to be much larger than the difference between the airport and the town's highest point (660').

Besides the fact that the absolute elevation change is obviously larger, the first 500' of elevation seems to be critically important in areas close to the ocean (maritime climates like Newfoundland, for example). The SSTs warm only the very bottom layers of the atmosphere, and it doesn't take much elevation to get beyond that boundary layer warming. Also, the location at 440' still benefits from upslope processes linked to large-scale lift as the airmass ascends that 660' hill.

Look at J.Spin, for example. He is only at 500' elevation, but he receives a good bit of the upslope generated by the 3000'-4000' Green Mountains to his east. Even though he isn't that high up, he still benefits from the large-scale lift and precipitation enhancement in the upslope zone. While he may average 130" snowfall per year, someone at 500' elevation in the Champlain Valley (for example, on the shoulder of Snake Mountain) may only get 75" per year. Even the summit of Snake Mountain, an isolated peak at 1287' elevation in the Champlain Valley, probably receives significantly less snowfall than J.Spin at 500' because it doesn't benefit from large-scale regional upslope.

The airport at 440' in St. John's and the high point at 660' are probably much more similar in both temperature and upslope potential than to the downtown. Therefore, while the airport may receive 30" more snowfall than downtown, the high point at 660' won't get another 20-30" more than the airport. It will probably get 5-10" more, based almost solely on colder temperatures.

I guess the question I'm having is that boundary layer issues are weaker here than sne due to the labrador current, but do the strong boundary layer winds that are common during most snowstorms in St. John's (way more so than SNE) offset that due to upslope. 

 

I can tell u that the days where the airport is in fog or freezing drizzle while I'm at 33 degrees with a little drizzle or nothing in flatrock are pretty remarkable.

 

During a freezing drizzle event, I've driven from work at 80 meters or so with just a trace of ice accretion, to 1/10" of ice on the trees at 120 metres on torbay rd passing east of the airport, to my place in flatrock at 5 metres where there wasnt any ice accretion.  

[CoastalWx]

I'm not sure if stronger winds really effect the upslope component when the vertical change is near 500ft or so. However, I wonder if you have the land/sea convergence we see here many times. This is usually more in nrn Plymouth county especially. The coastline is aligned perpendicular to a good NE LLJ. The terrain away from the beaches goes up to near 200ft within a few miles or so. Many times, you get the pileup of winds blowing from the sea to the land, This results in some additional precip I have noticed. 

[powderfreak]

I guess the question I'm having is that boundary layer issues are weaker here than sne due to the labrador current, but do the strong boundary layer winds that are common during most snowstorms in St. John's (way more so than SNE) offset that due to upslope. 

 

I can tell u that the days where the airport is in fog or freezing drizzle while I'm at 33 degrees with a little drizzle or nothing in flatrock are pretty remarkable.

 

During a freezing drizzle event, I've driven from work at 80 meters or so with just a trace of ice accretion, to 1/10" of ice on the trees at 120 metres on torbay rd passing east of the airport, to my place in flatrock at 5 metres where there wasnt any ice accretion.  

 

I'm not as well versed in Maritime climate but have been watching orographic precipitation for quite a while, and I just can't see how 500-600ft of elevation could cause much orographic lift...as in enough to really alter the QPF output of a given system.  I could be wrong but I'd think that's a fairly minor variable.  It is a strong flow but it would depend on any inversion height or something to see if there'd be anything to block or slow the flow as it goes over those 500ft elevations?  Otherwise, I think that strong air speed would travel very freely over such a small terrain change, especially if its a uniform flow from a stacked low.  Maybe if you had a thermal inversion and wind shift at like 1,500ft blocking the boundary layer a little from freely traveling you might see something?

 

What about speed convergence as a bigger variable?  High winds traveling freely over the water then slow down and back-up as they encounter friction with land?  Even BTV can get that in the right situation as fast flow over Lake Champlain encounters the water front, with the mountains downstream providing additional slowing.  It can pile up and create that snow globe dendrites right in BTV proper with the right inversion heights.

 

The icing thing makes sense as it seems you sit around the freezing mark a lot of times.  Obviously you know how that works, but I see it around here...you can literally walk into an icing layer and then back out of it, often here around 1,500ft.  The difference between 32.0F and 32.3F is big in those situations.  At the mountain it always surprises me how it can be icing at like the top of a tree and not the bottom of it when you hit that ice level.  That fraction of a degree is huge in those stable situations where the freezing layer isn't rising or dropping...its just steady at a given elevation.

 

Seems like you flirt right on that line a lot in the winter.

[powderfreak]

I'm not sure if stronger winds really effect the upslope component when the vertical change is near 500ft or so. However, I wonder if you have the land/sea convergence we see here many times. This is usually more in nrn Plymouth county especially. The coastline is aligned perpendicular to a good NE LLJ. The terrain away from the beaches goes up to near 200ft within a few miles or so. Many times, you get the pileup of winds blowing from the sea to the land, This results in some additional precip I have noticed.

Ahh beat me to it. Should've read the whole thread first.

Yeah I'd think it's more to do with the speed change and friction of going from ocean to land more so than orographic lift. I'd think anytime you have a flow off the ocean perpendicular to land you'll see an increase in precip locally within a few miles of the coast.

[OSUmetstud]

I'm not sure if stronger winds really effect the upslope component when the vertical change is near 500ft or so. However, I wonder if you have the land/sea convergence we see here many times. This is usually more in nrn Plymouth county especially. The coastline is aligned perpendicular to a good NE LLJ. The terrain away from the beaches goes up to near 200ft within a few miles or so. Many times, you get the pileup of winds blowing from the sea to the land, This results in some additional precip I have noticed. 

So I guess more friction than upslope?  Is that result still the same in a way?  The only pure upslope precip I've seen here is freezing drizzle. 

 

 

It's nagged me a bit in our last blizzard...the global models which had the synoptics right (GFS/Euro) only had qpf over the NE avalon of 0.8 to 1".  The 06z nam and 12z nam from the day of the storm had approximately 1.6".  Our WRF which uses the GFS as boundary conditions had 1.6" or so at 00z...the morning of....which continued through to 12z.  Given this I was thinking it was a boundary layer non-hydrostatic issue. The airport recorded 1.8" of qpf during the blizzard. The boundary layer remarkably cooled a destabilized during the period from 12z to 00z.  850s were -3C at 12z nearly isolthermal to the surface...by 00z the boundary layer was nearly moist adiabatic with 850s cooling to -9c. There was also some kind of mesoscale cold front that passed through between 15z and 18z when the wind shift from nne to nnw. 

[CoastalWx]

Ahh beat me to it. Should've read the whole thread first.

Yeah I'd think it's more to do with the speed change and friction of going from ocean to land more so than orographic lift. I'd think anytime you have a flow off the ocean perpendicular to land you'll see an increase in precip locally within a few miles of the coast.

 

I see that here a lot. It makes sense. You have a 40-50kt LLJ slamming onto the land. Friction will slow it down and you get the pileup. You'll squeeze a few more inches of snow out sometimes near the rt 3 corridor. 

[CoastalWx]

So I guess more friction than upslope?  Is that result still the same in a way?  The only pure upslope precip I've seen here is freezing drizzle. 

 

 

It's nagged me a bit in our last blizzard...the global models which had the synoptics right (GFS/Euro) only had qpf over the NE avalon of 0.8 to 1".  The 06z nam and 12z nam from the day of the storm had approximately 1.6".  Our WRF which uses the GFS as boundary conditions had 1.6" or so at 00z...the morning of....which continued through to 12z.  Given this I was thinking it was a boundary layer non-hydrostatic issue. The airport recorded 1.8" of qpf during the blizzard. The boundary layer remarkably cooled a destabilized during the period from 12z to 00z.  850s were -3C at 12z nearly isolthermal to the surface...by 00z the boundary layer was nearly moist adiabatic with 850s cooling to -9c. There was also some kind of mesoscale cold front that passed through between 15z and 18z when the wind shift from nne to nnw. 

 

I noticed on radar you guys had some good bands. Almost like what we had during 12/26/10. Maybe some sort of low level fronto? Sometimes that happens in occlusions I've noticed. You can get convective bands near the low center as the whole thing occludes. Could be a multitude of factors that you had. It looked like the low was just to your SE?

[OSUmetstud]

[CoastalWx]

Was the airport closer to that band? I can't tell if it's a deformation band or not. Looks like a dryslot just SE of it. 

[OSUmetstud]

I noticed on radar you guys had some good bands. Almost like what we had during 12/26/10. Maybe some sort of low level fronto? Sometimes that happens in occlusions I've noticed. You can get convective bands near the low center as the whole thing occludes. Could be a multitude of factors that you had. It looked like the low was just to your SE?

 

started due east of us then ran up to the ne of us.