Damage In Tolland Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Dry September. Winter cancel. How about dry October with under 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not sure which way I'm leaning TBH.....the QBO and IOD give me pause, but I think everything else looks as good as it can this early, which isn't saying a ton. The IOD just got a little more negative over the past week but it is what it is. I wouldn't even include it in a winter outlook or worry about it. The models show it going neutral this winter but does neutral even matter as far as forcing and feedbacks after the record negative run we have been in? I posted some of my thoughts on this winter over in the NYC forum if you want to give it a look and chime in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 9 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: How about dry October with under 2" Nina autumn. Pretty classic wx wise. November should start to show winter's hand mid month and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 17 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Ok, yeah that makes a lot more sense. I was thinking that if it were for 20" storms, that sounded like way too many. But yeah, you're data looks correct except you can also drop Jan 2014 for ORH...pretty weird that ORH has had fewer 15" storms than BOS in the past 5 years. Though there are a lot of "close calls". They probably have more 12"+ events fairly easily. Another poor proofread on my part. That was meant to be Jan. 2011 when they got 21". Looking at 12"+ added only 2 to Boston's haul, but pushed ORH to 12, including one last Feb. (I think 12. They had 14.7" during Jan. 25-27, 2011, and I'm guessing that 26-27 with 12.3" was the latter of two storms, also that Feb. 1 and 2 were two events, thus not making the cut.) I'm still trailing both, with 6 such events - Apr. 11, Mar. 13, Mar. 14 (times 2), Nov. 14, and Jan. 15. Only the first and last topped 13.5". (First in avg. snow for the past 6 winters, though, thanks to climo: My numbers say, BOS 58.8", ORH 80.6", MBY 86.9".) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 16 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Dry September. Winter cancel. Maybe. 10 BN Sept. at my place were followed by avg. 92" snow; 8 AN Sept. followed by avg. 81". Big players: Sept. 2000 had 1.77" precip and a huge winter, last Sept. precip was 5.92". Sept. avg. is 3.90" thru last year, now down to 3.75". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 On 10/20/2016 at 0:14 PM, ORH_wxman said: Winter forecasting is hard. There's always discussion when some new stuff comes out, and then it dies down again once it is realized that nothing can hit a seasonal forecast with accuracy that many folks want. It is particularly true for New England and the metric that just about everyone cares about...snowfall. We have basically no correlation to most of this crap that goes into a seasonal forecast (ENSO, QBO, PDO, IO, etc)...most of the stuff that would be useful isn't very predictable such as the NAO. It's easier to predict temps for a place like the southeast U.S. or parts of the west coast where the ENSO correlation is higher. I cannot remember how many times since like 2000 when I was lurking on ne.weather when everything looked awesome for a winter and it sucked or vice-versa (remember the torches predicted before the strong Nino of 2010-2011 or the epic winter forecasts before 2001-2002?). Sometimes, winter looked horrible for many in the east but we would make out great like 2007-2008 or to a lesser extent 2012-2013. I'd probably never feel good about a single set of variables in SNE for snowfall...ok, maybe predict above average snowfall in a weak Nino...lol...but that's it. 2007-8 ... nickel and dimed to death, and enjoyed every bit of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 I looked at the driest Octobers for Boston and found these... year.........Oct precip...seasonal snowfall...mei enso 1940-41......0.76"..........48".....el nino 1946-47......0.34"..........19".....neutral+ 1947-48......1.13"..........89".....neutral- 1967-68......0.96"..........45".....neutral- 1994-95......0.41"..........15".....el nino 2001-02......0.98"..........15".....neutral- 2013-14......0.61"..........59".....neutral- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 Not going to be that dry after the deluge they are receiving right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 Before today, BOS had 2.86 in the bank for October. Now up to around 4. Probably finish out October with 5+. How did the dry October in Boston narrative for this year get started? Totally bogus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 Looks like some good snows before Thanksgiving for all of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 10 hours ago, uncle W said: I looked at the driest Octobers for Boston and found these... year.........Oct precip...seasonal snowfall...mei enso 1940-41......0.76"..........48".....el nino 1946-47......0.34"..........19".....neutral+ 1947-48......1.13"..........89".....neutral- 1967-68......0.96"..........45".....neutral- 1994-95......0.41"..........15".....el nino 2001-02......0.98"..........15".....neutral- 2013-14......0.61"..........59".....neutral- Average is 41.4", very close to their average. (SD must be humongous, though.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2016 Author Share Posted October 22, 2016 On 10/20/2016 at 8:24 PM, Damage In Tolland said: How about dry October with under 2" lol oops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: lol oops Most folks west of ORH are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2016 Author Share Posted October 22, 2016 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Most folks west of ORH are. another EMA winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: another EMA winter? They had one last winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2016 Author Share Posted October 22, 2016 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: They had one last winter? Hows that dry western Mass super wet EMA correlation go again or did you just throw out how about a dry October just because. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Hows that dry western Mass super wet EMA correlation go again or did you just throw out how about a dry October just because. I was focusing on CT. You are RI climate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2016 Author Share Posted October 22, 2016 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I was focusing on CT. You are RI climate Lol what in the sam hell does that mean, climate doesn't know borders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol what in the sam hell does that mean, climate doesn't know borders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: They had one last winter? Yeah most of SE MA was actually above average for snowfall. BOS itself was a bit below but far better off than further west compared to average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol what in the sam hell does that mean, climate doesn't know borders. You are ENE centric. Right on western edge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 Any word on the Euro weeklies? It looks like the beginning of November will be above normal, especially on GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 Big flip to colder mid NOV weeklies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Big flip to colder mid NOV weeklies Good to hear. The Arctic actually looks pretty good even on the 8-10 day means I posted above. Just need to work on the Pacifc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 19 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Big flip to colder mid NOV weeklies That's ideal, even if delayed a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 has anyone ever seen a FA outlook that didn't resemble this in one way-shape-or-another? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 49 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: has anyone ever seen a FA outlook that didn't resemble this in one way-shape-or-another? The interesting part is it might very well be right about the Plains, Ohio valley, and NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 A white Thanksgiving and Christmas, followed by a slight early Jan thaw and than a mid Jan-Feb pounding than an abrupt late Feb/ early March flip to spring. That's my wish list, nothing scientific just wishful thinking. The thaw is there just to wet the appetite. Not a complete melt off but enough to wet the appetite for the mid winter pounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 22 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: A white Thanksgiving and Christmas, followed by a slight early Jan thaw and than a mid Jan-Feb pounding than an abrupt late Feb/ early March flip to spring. That's my wish list, nothing scientific just wishful thinking. The thaw is there just to wet the appetite. Not a complete melt off but enough to wet the appetite for the mid winter pounding. that description is a decent redux of 1995-1996 ... albeit, sans the magnitude. which that year had plenty. i was up a UML as an undergrad in a waste of time degree program ... when cool air seemed to come in a like a wall in late October. if memory serves, there may have been oonnne last sort of warm attempt there in the first week or so of Novie, but then we were kissed by a 2-5 in mix event around mid month and it was no turning back. thing is, ..also as memory serves, said wall moved slowly S through SNE into the upper MA...then south in time. if you were north of the proverbial line, winter, ...south? you kept reclaiming late heat. it was weirdly gradiented in that way. but, eventually (obviously) the cold one; culminating in that Jan 6-9 megalopolis blizzard. but, between ~ Nov 10 and that late January thaw that swept over ...the whole of the Eastern Seaboard for that matter, interior central Mass and probably much of Central NE were waaay above normal snow with below normal cold .. sustaining pack the whole way. the thaw was amazing. huge hemispheric R-wave roll-back and the semi-perm trough retro'ed clear o MN, where they got a decent 2 week pounding. we here went through three distinct cutters that swept 45 to 60 F DP air mass clear to Ontario. said snow pack? gone ... for the most part. that winter was a heading for 110% GPA until that thaw happened, instead, just a solid A. winter did come back for solid 30 days from mid Feb ...actually, there were couple frosting on the cake early April events that lobbed another 10 to 20 on top of seasonal totals just to make the headlines prettier. I still think that was more impressive than that 5 weeks a couple years ago... because that snow cheated by being too fluffy - but i don't want to inspire any poster rage based upon symbolically impugning the sanctity snow, either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 57 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: that description is a decent redux of 1995-1996 ... albeit, sans the magnitude. which that year had plenty. i was up a UML as an undergrad in a waste of time degree program ... when cool air seemed to come in a like a wall in late October. if memory serves, there may have been oonnne last sort of warm attempt there in the first week or so of Novie, but then we were kissed by a 2-5 in mix event around mid month and it was no turning back. thing is, ..also as memory serves, said wall moved slowly S through SNE into the upper MA...then south in time. if you were north of the proverbial line, winter, ...south? you kept reclaiming late heat. it was weirdly gradiented in that way. but, eventually (obviously) the cold one; culminating in that Jan 6-9 megalopolis blizzard. but, between ~ Nov 10 and that late January thaw that swept over ...the whole of the Eastern Seaboard for that matter, interior central Mass and probably much of Central NE were waaay above normal snow with below normal cold .. sustaining pack the whole way. the thaw was amazing. huge hemispheric R-wave roll-back and the semi-perm trough retro'ed clear o MN, where they got a decent 2 week pounding. we here went through three distinct cutters that swept 45 to 60 F DP air mass clear to Ontario. said snow pack? gone ... for the most part. that winter was a heading for 110% GPA until that thaw happened, instead, just a solid A. winter did come back for solid 30 days from mid Feb ...actually, there were couple frosting on the cake early April events that lobbed another 10 to 20 on top of seasonal totals just to make the headlines prettier. I still think that was more impressive than that 5 weeks a couple years ago... because that snow cheated by being too fluffy - but i don't want to inspire any poster rage based upon symbolically impugning the sanctity snow, either... you are awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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