Winter 2016/2017 because its never too early

[CoastalWx]

While the SAI isn't the go to variable it was pimped out to be, perhaps it has more merit in weaker ENSO? I think last year the super strong Nino simply said FU to any type of index like the SAI. The atmospheric response became very strong Nino like after December. I would think ENSO (especially such a strong Nino) really would trump some of these smaller scale seasonal indices.

[tamarack]

21 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

It would be nice to have a good 4 month season. Have a November event and then just steadily roll through late March. I guess '12-'13 did that for the interior though. 

 

As bad as last year was, it was the best April since 1997. At least snow wise.

I'd take a repeat of 13-14, even with its incredibly frustrating January - 5 storms 10"+ (though none bigger than 13.5") and deep, long-lasting snowpack.  2000-01 had 3 events 16" or larger, my only winter here with more than one.  2010-11 was AN, thanks to the 15" on 4/1 - would've been about dead-on avg with avg April snow - but was also frustrating for the near-misses of big time snow.  Boxing Day and Jan 12 were nice 7-8" events w/o any S+ at home, while 25 miles south and east got at least twice as much, with verified 3-hr blizzard conditions each time.  Then March 7 brought heavy IP/ZR that took out power (came home after a long forestry meeting to indoor temps in the 40s) while 40 miles north got 18"+.  2002-03 was suppression city, nice 14" storm in early Jan and long, long snow cover thanks to the cold and a mid-November 7" event, but season snowfall was 20" BN.

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, tamarack said:

I'd take a repeat of 13-14, even with its incredibly frustrating January - 5 storms 10"+ (though none bigger than 13.5") and deep, long-lasting snowpack.  2000-01 had 3 events 16" or larger, my only winter here with more than one.  2010-11 was AN, thanks to the 15" on 4/1 - would've been about dead-on avg with avg April snow - but was also frustrating for the near-misses of big time snow.  Boxing Day and Jan 12 were nice 7-8" events w/o any S+ at home, while 25 miles south and east got at least twice as much, with verified 3-hr blizzard conditions each time.  Then March 7 brought heavy IP/ZR that took out power (came home after a long forestry meeting to indoor temps in the 40s) while 40 miles north got 18"+.  2002-03 was suppression city, nice 14" storm in early Jan and long, long snow cover thanks to the cold and a mid-November 7" event, but season snowfall was 20" BN.

Your area may have the biggest dichotomy to SNE compared to Stowe. At least up where PF lives, they can still get snow from the weakening parent low and mid level support, when SNE gets buried.  Not so much way up there in the foothills of ME. Perhaps a few. 

[tamarack]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Your area may have the biggest dichotomy to SNE compared to Stowe. At least up where PF lives, they can still get snow from the weakening parent low and mid level support, when SNE gets buried.  Not so much way up there in the foothills of ME. Perhaps a few. 

Very true.  But on occasion we get events like Feb. 22-23, 2009 when SNE got almost nothing except at elevation, PWM got 6-7" of mush, and the foothills ran 20-28".  Since that time, the big storms have all had sharp northside cutoffs (or southside p-type lines) that kept my area out of the real fun, except for Jan 2015, when I was conveniently out of state and only got to snowblow the driveway.  Since that 2/09 dump, the 20" I missed in Jan '15 is my only event bigger than the April Fools' storm in 2011; during the same time, Boston has had 7 such events.  (Though one should not cry about Boston 2010-on; even ORH has had only 5...) 

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Very true.  But on occasion we get events like Feb. 22-23, 2009 when SNE got almost nothing except at elevation, PWM got 6-7" of mush, and the foothills ran 20-28".  Since that time, the big storms have all had sharp northside cutoffs (or southside p-type lines) that kept my area out of the real fun, except for Jan 2015, when I was conveniently out of state and only got to snowblow the driveway.  Since that 2/09 dump, the 20" I missed in Jan '15 is my only event bigger than the April Fools' storm in 2011; during the same time, Boston has had 7 such events.  (Though one should not cry about Boston 2010-on; even ORH has had only 5...) 

 

Boston has had 7 events of 20" since 2010 while ORH has had 5? Or did you mean another number.

[SnowHole413]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not sure which way I'm leaning TBH.....the QBO and IOD give me pause, but I think everything else looks as good as it can this early, which isn't saying a ton.

 

The good thing is the QBO is going to dropping towards negative throughout the winter and the IOD is projected to be towards neutral /positive throughout winter which is a good thing. Seeing how the polar vortex has been very weak thus far makes me feel like the QBO will be a lesser influence this winter compared to 15-16.

[CoastalWx]

The 30 and 50mb levels are more important for QBO. I don't think those are going negative 

[Isotherm]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

While the SAI isn't the go to variable it was pimped out to be, perhaps it has more merit in weaker ENSO? I think last year the super strong Nino simply said FU to any type of index like the SAI. The atmospheric response became very strong Nino like after December. I would think ENSO (especially such a strong Nino) really would trump some of these smaller scale seasonal indices.

Agree. Much of the atmospheric response expectations worked out (e.g., Jan-Feb reversal with the mean Z500 trough in the East in according w/ centrally based Nino, Jan blocking) but the response was significantly muted due to the super Nino induced +AAM/+EPO/strat vortex and thus torching low levels. Jan's blocking would have rolled forward into Feb IMO, if the Nino were a bit weaker (the early Feb heat flux likely would have produced a major SSW in virtually any other year). I can't speak for others, but last autumn/winter simply further underscored to me that a phenomenal looking indicator (or two) can still mean very little, if other factors are driving the bus. It appears we're going to have another major SAI October, so it'll be interesting to see how that works out this winter. Of course, it's always easier to examine in hindsight which indicators were 'more important' than others (though I do believe there is a disparity). 

[SnowHole413]

Well the QBO is not going to be negative this winter but It definitely won't be as strong as last winter 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Boston has had 7 events of 20" since 2010 while ORH has had 5? Or did you mean another number.

It was supposed to refer back to the 15" I got on 4/1/2011.  Of course, my data could be wrong. 

The BOS events:  Dec. 2010, Feb. 2013, Jan. 2014 (15.1", my exact total for 4/1/11, so one tie and 6 bigger), Jan. 2015, Feb. 2015 (times 3)

For ORH:  Omit Boxing Day, add the March '13 firehose, and drop the latter 2 in Feb. '15.

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, tamarack said:

It was supposed to refer back to the 15" I got on 4/1/2011.  Of course, my data could be wrong. 

The BOS events:  Dec. 2010, Feb. 2013, Jan. 2014 (15.1", my exact total for 4/1/11, so one tie and 6 bigger), Jan. 2015, Feb. 2015 (times 3)

For ORH:  Omit Boxing Day, add the March '13 firehose, and drop the latter 2 in Feb. '15.

 

Ok, yeah that makes a lot more sense. I was thinking that if it were for 20" storms, that sounded like way too many.

 

But yeah, you're data looks correct except you can also drop Jan 2014 for ORH...pretty weird that ORH has had fewer 15" storms than BOS in the past 5 years. Though there are a lot of "close calls". They probably have more 12"+ events fairly easily.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

While the SAI isn't the go to variable it was pimped out to be, perhaps it has more merit in weaker ENSO? I think last year the super strong Nino simply said FU to any type of index like the SAI. The atmospheric response became very strong Nino like after December. I would think ENSO (especially such a strong Nino) really would trump some of these smaller scale seasonal indices.

I've said that same thing....hopefully that is the case because it looks good again.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

The 30 and 50mb levels are more important for QBO. I don't think those are going negative 

The IOD is going positive, supposedly....

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The IOD is going positive, supposedly....

This is the first time in a long time, where I've been more casually observing the indices. I feel like we scrutinize things sometimes way too hard. Just let the cards fall where they may. I'm looking forward to the first real threat where I can put aside the voodoo and actually use models with skill....lol.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Isotherm said:

Agree. Much of the atmospheric response expectations worked out (e.g., Jan-Feb reversal with the mean Z500 trough in the East in according w/ centrally based Nino, Jan blocking) but the response was significantly muted due to the super Nino induced +AAM/+EPO/strat vortex and thus torching low levels. Jan's blocking would have rolled forward into Feb IMO, if the Nino were a bit weaker (the early Feb heat flux likely would have produced a major SSW in virtually any other year). I can't speak for others, but last autumn/winter simply further underscored to me that a phenomenal looking indicator (or two) can still mean very little, if other factors are driving the bus. It appears we're going to have another major SAI October, so it'll be interesting to see how that works out this winter. Of course, it's always easier to examine in hindsight which indicators were 'more important' than others (though I do believe there is a disparity). 

Tom, you never answered my question from the main forum....why are you so concerned about the NAO/AO this year?

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

This is the first time in a long time, where I've been more casually observing the indices. I feel like we scrutinize things sometimes way too hard. Just let the cards fall where they may. I'm looking forward to the first real threat where I can put aside the voodoo and actually use models with skill....lol.

Man glad you have come to the dark side. I mean obviously they have use but event by event is so much more meaningful. LR is fraught with difficulties, especially here in New England with our correlations weak. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Man glad you have come to the dark side. I mean obviously they have use but event by event is so much more meaningful. LR is fraught with difficulties, especially here in New England with our correlations weak. 

Well, there aren't any events yet to speak of, so LR is all we have.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, there aren't any events yet to speak of, so LR is all we have.

Yep. That's why it's most popular in autumn. Once we are in winter we rarely look more than 2-3 weeks ahead which while still a decent ways out, still has at least some skill. Esp for temps. 

Eventually the autumn stuff will get more accurate but we are probably still at least a decade or three away from it being way better than a coin flip. (Talking for areas outside of the more obedient southeast and west coast for indices like ENSO). If you can bat like 55-60% for our area that is very good. 

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, there aren't any events yet to speak of, so LR is all we have.

But what use is it in October without any overwhelming signal? Pertubations in the flow in mid Nov could force the Jet stream to buckle above or below us. I at this time cannot point to any single factor I could point to and say yep that will drive the bus this year. Kevs whole BS about people being worried is really nonsensical. There is no super nino or overwhelming WAR signal. I remain on the variable climo bus until something pops and indicates to me what the pattern will evolve as. As weak as it is I agree with the NOAA equal chances released today.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

But what use is it in October without any overwhelming signal? Pertubations in the flow in mid Nov could force the Jet stream to buckle above or below us. I at this time cannot point to any single factor I could point to and say yep that will drive the bus this year. Kevs whole BS about people being worried is really nonsensical. There is no super nino or overwhelming WAR signal. I remain on the variable climo bus until something pops and indicates to me what the pattern will evolve as. As weak as it is I agree with the NOAA equal chances released today.

You are missing the point.

The appeal isn't its utility, but the fact that there are no storms, thus nothing else to focus on.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You are missing the point.

The appeal isn't its utility, but the fact that there are no storms, thus nothing else to focus on.

But thats not what my reply to Scott was about. Yes we can speculate all day but theres no luster this year, pretty meh signals equals pretty meh enthusiasm ,discussion I guess.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

But thats not what my reply to Scott was about. Yes we can speculate all day but theres no luster this year, pretty meh signals equals pretty meh enthusiasm ,discussion I guess.

I agree, but you said event by event is so much more meaningful.

Right now, 97% of us don't care whether or not its .2 or .3" of rainfall.

[CoastalWx]

20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Man glad you have come to the dark side. I mean obviously they have use but event by event is so much more meaningful. LR is fraught with difficulties, especially here in New England with our correlations weak. 

I don't mean to imply, or diminish looking at the indices. Just at the moment it's tough to really say for New England.  The only thing I have confidence is a colder and snowier interior for sure. I know, really sticking my neck out after last year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don't mean to imply, or diminish looking at the indices. Just at the moment it's tough to really say for New England.  The only thing I have confidence is a colder and snowier interior for sure. I know, really sticking my neck out after last year.

Yea, I don't feel strongly, aside from the fact that it will be better than last year for sne.

[Go Kart Mozart]

The most important indicator of our winter weather is the Oracle of Wilmington's forecast.  Ray?  When is it coming?  

[ORH_wxman]

I typically just wait until around thanksgiving to see if my knee is acting up and then check to see if the earth is lined up with the moons of Jupiter. That should tell us if it's going to be a doozy. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

The most important indicator of our winter weather is the Oracle of Wilmington's forecast.  Ray?  When is it coming?  

I did pretty average last year.....nailed the blizzard, but my outlook was tremendously flawed.

Thanks for the kind words, though.

 

Mid Novie...

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I typically just wait until around thanksgiving to see if my knee is acting up and then check to see if the earth is lined up with the moons of Jupiter. That should tell us if it's going to be a doozy. 

May as well....accuracy would be on par with that of most contemporary methods.

[CoastalWx]

Dry September. Winter cancel.

[Baroclinic Zone]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Dry September. Winter cancel.

We pray