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Severe Weather Threat 4/15/16 KS/CO/OK/TX/NM


Jim Martin

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the cluster containing individual cells near Elkhart and Sturgis is now merging with the line segment from Stonington and Keyes. looks like a short-term dynamic increase for tornadic risk in the non-merged area, but with time in the merged area more like a hail and wind event.

 

and it definitely looks like hail attm near Richfield, given the cc-scattering signature emanating from Richfield.

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Tomorrow looks interesting now as well along the DL, a bit east of where today was focused.

I would probably start off near Silverton, TX tomorrow if chasing. Nice area of higher DP's against the DL there, with a tongue of higher theta-e air.

Sounding from east of AMA at 0z tomorrow event off the 0z NAM...

c32122e3e7d8260d593714043b23fe45.jpg

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I think the central 1/3rd of Texas will see a risk of severe weather tomorrow. There seems to be a bit of a problem regarding severe potential. Surface-CAPE, 0-6km shear and 0-3km SRH are kind of disjointed and don't seem to want to cooperate. There will be lower shear in the eastern 1/3rd of Texas. There won't be a lot of areas with 0-6km shear over 40kt.

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A little off topic: Alex Lamers (@AlexJLamers) tweeted a sounding from Calcutta India- showing 7176 J/kg surface based CAPE with 38 kt of effective shear, and capping. He was highlighting Bangladesh tornado season. One of the highest measured CAPEs I've seen.

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