Jim Martin Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Looking like the potential is there for severe weather Monday evening across the ArkLaTex region. All severe hazards look to be possible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Maybe worth opening this up to Sunday as well across TX/OK/SE KS? Monday looks like the bigger day, although from a chasing standpoint, that's some pretty ugly terrain across the Ozarks and vicinity. I'll probably be sitting this one out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 9, 2016 Author Share Posted April 9, 2016 I can go ahead and do that Quincy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Looks like a good day for a few tornadoes. I think the NAM and 4k NAM are quite overboard though. Probably could see a Enhanced risk issued tomorrow for the Texarkana area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 9, 2016 Author Share Posted April 9, 2016 18z 4km NAM sounding NE of Sherveport, LA Monday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 18z 4km NAM sounding NE of Sherveport, LA Monday evening. Wow...that's impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 10, 2016 Share Posted April 10, 2016 Here is my outlook for tomorrow (4/10). A number of the parameters look pretty good for SW Oklahoma and southward into Texas. Based on the 4km NAM, I believe there will be areas of activity in SW OK and possibly central OK, as well as near the front southern KS and SW MO. The shear looks a little weak in NW OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 Then there is another cell to the SW of this one moving towards Wichita Falls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 Couple of sups in S. OK/N. TX, along with a bowing line segment in W. OK... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 That rotation near KFDR badly needs a tornado warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 Couple of sups in S. OK/N. TX, along with a bowing line segment in W. OK... Two embedded sups in that line now. Likely was a tor south of Tipton not too long ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 1029 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL TILLMAN COUNTY... AT 1028 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FREDERICK... MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM. HAZARD...100 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES AND BUSINESSES. EXPECT EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... FREDERICK AND HOLLISTER. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH TORNADO LIKE WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED. MOBILE HOMES AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE AND MAY BE OVERTURNED. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT PROPERTY DAMAGE. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DEADLY STORM. SEEK SHELTER IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. ABANDON VEHICLES IN SEARCH OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PERMANENT STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. THIS THUNDERSTORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND TORNADOES. MOVE QUICKLY TO A SAFE SHELTER...SUCH AS AN INTERIOR ROOM... A BATHROOM OR CLOSET OR BASEMENT. This is some very strong wording. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 KFDR radar showed a few spots of 70-90kt winds (base velocity) around Faxon, OK and Hollister OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 It appears that the dryline may be setting up a bit further back to the west, thus putting the Metroplex into a higher threat of play this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 Looks like the chase target today will be in North Texas. Outflow boundary and dry line intersect near the Metroplex. Fortunately for the population the intersection should drift northeast of town before new storms fire. Upper level winds are still strong enough but the low-level jet may redevelop just-in-time. If the LLJ is slow to recover the low level shear may be weak and/or veered off. Best chance of some locally higher shear will be on the outflow boundary. I would go maybe one cell east of the dry line if the first is right on the DL. Hi-Res models have other cell(s) in Oklahoma with a decent inflow environment. However some cells are on the cold front and CAPE is lower up there. Plus side includes a second east-west boundary southeast OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadohunter Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 That rotation near KFDR badly needs a tornado warning. Why did that thing not get a tor warning? Ive seen tornado warnings issued for 100 mph winds even though there was no strong rotation. that thing last night had 100+ mph winds at 400 feet AGL with decent rotation multiple times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 Why did that thing not get a tor warning? Ive seen tornado warnings issued for 100 mph winds even though there was no strong rotation. that thing last night had 100+ mph winds at 400 feet AGL with decent rotation multiple timesI have heard from a few people that OUN has a policy of not issuing TORs for qlcs's. Not sure if there is a rotational velocity threshold for a qlcs mesovorticy that they would forego the policy and issue a TOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 I have heard from a few people that OUN has a policy of not issuing TORs for qlcs's. Not sure if there is a rotational velocity threshold for a qlcs mesovorticy that they would forego the policy and issue a TOR. In my opinion that isn't a good policy especially when it is pretty obvious there is an extremely strong circulation present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 In my opinion that isn't a good policy especially when it is pretty obvious there is an extremely strong circulation present. If it's a blanket policy against QLCS tornado warnings then yeah, bad idea. QLCS tornadoes can be pretty strong on occasion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 In my opinion that isn't a good policy especially when it is pretty obvious there is an extremely strong circulation present.Although I most of the time don't like to put myself in the position of criticizing another WFO, I did feel it was important to share that information. Whether the policy is officially in writing or unwritten, I also don't agree with it and last night is a good example why. From those in the know that I've spoken to, there's a much larger scientific debate behind all of it that deals with at least in part some at OUN and some prominent experts in the field questioning the existence of qlcs tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 Although I most of the time don't like to put myself in the position of criticizing another WFO, I did feel it was important to share that information. Whether the policy is officially in writing or unwritten, I also don't agree with it and last night is a good example why. From those in the know that I've spoken to, there's a much larger scientific debate behind all of it that deals with at least in part some at OUN and some prominent experts in the field questioning the existence of qlcs tornadoes. Even if they don't exist, which I would disagree with their questioning, there is evidence of strong damage that occurs from these enhanced pockets of shear. The problem is severe warnings in a squall line don't carry the same weight as a tornado warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 Although I most of the time don't like to put myself in the position of criticizing another WFO, I did feel it was important to share that information. Whether the policy is officially in writing or unwritten, I also don't agree with it and last night is a good example why. From those in the know that I've spoken to, there's a much larger scientific debate behind all of it that deals with at least in part some at OUN and some prominent experts in the field questioning the existence of qlcs tornadoes. Wow, really? Had no idea there was still a debate. If they don't exist, then it begs the question about what causes tornado-like damage patterns in some QLCS events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 Looks like the cap is finally giving over the Metroplex. Storm exploding over Plano & Allen. Also, the front is firing off on the Red River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 There's a ton of CAPE between CLL and I35. If a storm can fire along the dryline then it will have a nice environment to work with. The problem is there's no real trigger and a fair cap in place. We'll see if any of that TCU going up on the dryline can mix it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 Nice sup NW of Decatur, TX. Looks like it will stay north of the southward moving boundary though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 523 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... COLLIN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... EASTERN DENTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 615 PM CDT * AT 521 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR KRUGERVILLE... OR NEAR DENTON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF GOLF BALL TO TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS STORM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 scanner reporting many baseball sized hail reports and window damage north metroplex..also now rotating wallcloud softball hail now winds 70 MPH and rotation source: NWS talking to spotter net Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 .A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN COLLIN...NORTHEASTERN DALLAS...SOUTHERN HUNT... ROCKWALL AND NORTHERN KAUFMAN COUNTIES... AT 616 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FATE...OR NEAR ROCKWALL...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM. HAZARD...SOFTBALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. AT 617 PM SOFTBALL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED JUST SOUTHEAST OF WYLIE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 Just saw a report of softball (4.25") sized hail at Wylie Texas. This will probably result in a lot of damage to cars and trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 12, 2016 Share Posted April 12, 2016 Wow, really? Had no idea there was still a debate. If they don't exist, then it begs the question about what causes tornado-like damage patterns in some QLCS events.Yup, I wasn't aware there was a debate either until recently. Having been on multiple surveys for qlcs tornadoes, the damage patterns are indistinguishable from supercell tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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