Treckasec Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... 705 PM ESTF: we will cancel another portion of the watch extreme ne md through n de and sw NJ, however, thats it. we expect svr potential to increase in waa toward 11 PM on the Delmarva. Please do not think watch cancellation means its all clear all night. Its only all clear through about midnight Active through Noon Friday. FF potential continues fairly high and the watch continues. Greatest concern is se PA, S NJ, ne MD, central and northern DE, where it rained heard this afternoon, and or where 3 hrly ffg is under 3". svr wx threat is mainly delmarva and s tip of NJ through midnight and then it may expand northward after midnight to near ILG- ACY axis as low pres in northern VA cuts enewd through s NJ. tor parameter remarkably large toward 09z on the sref in snj. so SVA 418 was trimmed south. LSR`s and PNS will be updated during the night. we can use all damage reports, as well as unusual flooding reports and any rainfall over 2 inches. PWAT increase to 2.3" by 09z philly area. If it thunders at that time, short term rainfall could easily be excessive for urban areas. normally heaviest rainfall occurs near the path of the sfc low, near the most unstable air south of the south-ne wind sfc convergence zone. Am expecting modeled qpf to be too far north. so, another round of heavy rain looks to move in late tonight as a wave of low pressure tracks northeastward along the stalled front. Heavy rainfall with this second round may be more widespread. Also, backed flow in the low levels ahead of the low may provide a source of low- level helicity. Given very low LCL heights, a weak tornado or two may occur toward early morning near the front as long as instability remains near surface based. 630 PM ZFP wording on the Delmarva is somewhat confuded due to svr wording terminating at midnight and gusty wind wording after midnight but it doesnt read the second part of heavy rain and gusty wind as Late. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Precipitable water values of 2.2 to 2.4 inches will overspread our forecast area from the south for tonight. Conditions are expected to remain unstable, especially across our southern counties. Also, surface low pressure approaching from the west will result in the development of a favorable low level wind profile for organized convection tonight. The surface wind should begin to favor the east to south quadrant late tonight, especially on the coastal plain, while winds around 800 HPa will be from the southwest. The very high precipitable water values should result in heavy rainfall in any organized convection. As a result, the Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for southeastern Pennsylvania, central and southern New Jersey, Delaware and northeastern Maryland. The cloud cover and high humidity will keep temperatures from falling below the 70s for tonight except in the Poconos and far northern New Jersey. AFD says activity will pick back up after midnight with hinting at issuing a watch...Maybe a tornado watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 Had about 0.1" light rain between 3-4:30, although there was a brief thunderstorm during that time. Maxed out at 89F. Currently overcast & 74F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 Wow had fully expected periods of heavy rain long before now and radar continues to look like garbage. New dry slot coming in too, it's all up to the tail end wave of moisture that is coming through at 3am to keep this from a drought buster fail. *0z NAM cut totals 2" north of Philly. If it was winter I just went from 30" snow to 10" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 Really getting shafted here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 Pouring here in Woodbridge Township. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 Picked up 0.89" of rain so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 Up to 1.09" of rain so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 .19" of rain for yesterday, .10" since midnight here in NW Chesco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 1.53" total rainfall, about 0.30" of that overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 Picked up another 0.80" today. Storm total is 2.92". Puts July at 7.83" so far. Almost all of that during the second half of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 .45" the ECM had a stroke with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 .50" hope to get another 1" through the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted July 30, 2016 Share Posted July 30, 2016 Some showers/T-storm floating down SE...it would be nice to get some unexpected rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted July 30, 2016 Share Posted July 30, 2016 .70" from a rogue shower. Beat the "big rainstorm" just hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 30, 2016 Share Posted July 30, 2016 Picked up 1.22" of rain yesterday, total since Monday of 2.30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted July 30, 2016 Share Posted July 30, 2016 I fully expect some T-storm action today. Actually the next couple days. 74.6F / DP 72F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted July 30, 2016 Share Posted July 30, 2016 Stuff already starting to fire up. 82.7F and a miserable DP of 74F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted July 30, 2016 Share Posted July 30, 2016 Had my doubts ten days ago verse earlier thinking but the month did indeed finish wetter. Current radar has a rain forest look for today have to think the drought is ending. 5.05" imby for July with more coming today and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemwinder Posted July 30, 2016 Share Posted July 30, 2016 2 hours ago, RedSky said: Had my doubts ten days ago verse earlier thinking but the month did indeed finish wetter. Current radar has a rain forest look for today have to think the drought is ending. 5.05" imby for July with more coming today and tomorrow. Congrats on a wet July, at last. Hope also that NE PA is doing better. I remember that a lot of it was in drought this spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted July 30, 2016 Share Posted July 30, 2016 Getting poured upon w/much more to go. Some thunder/no lightning, tad breezy and cooling down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemwinder Posted July 30, 2016 Share Posted July 30, 2016 Have been under the backbuilding tail end of that cell, with 5" of rain on my little deck. Not official, but definitely WET. Moderate rain is slowly diminishing. I overlook the D&R Canal between W Windsor and Princeton, near Alexander Road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted July 30, 2016 Share Posted July 30, 2016 11 minutes ago, stemwinder said: Have been under the backbuilding tail end of that cell, with 5" of rain on my little deck. Not official, but definitely WET. Moderate rain is slowly diminishing. I overlook the D&R Canal between W Windsor and Princeton, near Alexander Road. Just heard on the news upwards of 5" in/around Princeton so you're probably correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 30, 2016 Share Posted July 30, 2016 0.31 so far from this. I thought it would be more intense with some good rates, but it's mostly been a light to occasionally moderate event here so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted July 31, 2016 Share Posted July 31, 2016 0.79" here tonight in NW Chesco - 0.95" today and 1.64" over last 3 days of needed rainfall - YTD rainfall now at 27.93" which is 0.59" below normal through the end of July here in NW Chesco, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted July 31, 2016 Share Posted July 31, 2016 Boats in the streets are a good sign the drought is in fact over in Princeton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted July 31, 2016 Share Posted July 31, 2016 0.98" of rain this morning. 1.06" including last night. That's 3.98" since Friday morning and 8.89" on the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 31, 2016 Share Posted July 31, 2016 Looks like today could be another day of heavy rains with localized flooding especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Not sure what my total rainfall was yesterday but when I checked during the evening I was a little over 0.50". Probably wound up with between 0.50"-0.75" of rain for the day, not as much as some other areas received. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted July 31, 2016 Share Posted July 31, 2016 2 rounds of rain since midnight have yielded just over an 1". That last round that came through around 7 am had almost 3" an hour rates. Had about 1/3rd " each day on Friday and Saturday. Currently overcast, 73F and wet out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted July 31, 2016 Share Posted July 31, 2016 9 hours ago, RedSky said: Boats in the streets are a good sign the drought is in fact over in Princeton Think they received 7+" total up there yesterday....probably more today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted July 31, 2016 Share Posted July 31, 2016 The DP 76F and 91% humidity make it feel very refreshing outside...early spring like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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