Moderate Snow Potential 4/4

[JC-CT]

Sums up the season for NNE .

Hopefully you guys never experience this type of a porking.

Sure there are record low snows but again I state in those futility seasons in SNE, you usually don't see PHL rack up winter storm warnings like a further kick in the balls.

 

Already did, it's called 2011-12

[powderfreak]

Already did, it's called 2011-12

What did areas south of you get?

There's just a bad year with no chances, that would've been much better.

[tamarack]

Already did, it's called 2011-12

 

09-10 fits better with the southerly snow blitz, northerly rats.

[JC-CT]

What did areas south of you get?

There's just a bad year with no chances, that would've been much better.

 

09-10 fits better with the southerly snow blitz, northerly rats.

 

 

I didn't realize this was all about whose is bigger.

 

A rat is a rat, and 2011-12 was a rat. I think I had under 20" including the Octobomb. I distinctly remember a single plowable snowfall of 4" in January. Didn't clear the driveway once other than that.

[ORH_wxman]

09-10 fits better with the southerly snow blitz, northerly rats.

 

 

Yes.

 

2011-2012 was garbage everywhere.

[powderfreak]

I didn't realize this was all about whose is bigger.

A rat is a rat, and 2011-12 was a rat. I think I had under 20" including the Octobomb. I distinctly remember a single plowable snowfall of 4" in January. Didn't clear the driveway once other than that.

A rat is a rat yes but I think that would've gone over even worse if you had under 20" while Philly had 5 advisory or higher events.

No one can honestly say that stuff doesn't get factored into your memory of a winter. Unfortunately we don't live in a vacuum.

There is certainly a difference between just a widespread ratter everywhere and getting futility on getting whiffed every which way imaginable.

[powderfreak]

09-10 fits better with the southerly snow blitz, northerly rats.

Yeah good example. And I know some on here consider that winter much more frustrating than a pure region wide ratter for that reason. Just ask Ray his opinion on 09-10 lol.

[Morch Madness]

Amazing what a difference an airmass like this makes. Sunday morning's snow was essentially gone by noon in BOS, but this snow hasn't melted much since yesterday. Sun angle doing surprisingly little damage for early April.

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah good example. And I know some on here consider that winter much more frustrating than a pure region wide ratter for that reason. Just ask Ray his opinion on 09-10 lol.

9/10 was a much better winter here than this year.

[JC-CT]

A rat is a rat yes but I think that would've gone over even worse if you had under 20" while Philly had 5 advisory or higher events.

 

 

For my hood specifically, the problem with the 09/10 analogy is that I didn't have under 20".

[ORH_wxman]

There's no real good analogy for SNE comparing to what NNE got this winter (esp NW NNE...Maine didn't get it as bad). Their winter was so anomalous to begin with on the raw totals (prob 1 in 100 years or something). So you are already starting from an extremely rare point. Now add to that extremely rare data point the fact that southeast of them actually was not nearly as bad and just north of them in Quebec was actually good....and it's an even rarer event.

 

SNE's worst winters as a whole were probably 2011-2012, 1994-1995, 1988-1989, 1979-1980, and perhaps 1954-1955 and 1936-1937 if we want to go further back. 1972-1973 was pretty brutal too, but that was more confined to the coastal plain and south of the pike. If you look at those winters, nobody did well to the south...it was terrible down there too...sans maybe Virginia/DC in 1979-1980. But it wasn't right adjacent to SNE...places like NYC and Philly still had garbage winters that year.

 

What we would need to compare is take a winter like 1936-1937 and reduce the snowfall even further (like maybe give BOS 3" on the season and ORH 12" on the season) and then have places like NYC and PHL get 20-25" on the season. But that hasn't happened, so we can't really compare it. 2009-2010 is a loose comparison, but our snow totals in SNE were still largely pretty decent. I was probably much right on average, and BOS was not too far below...SE NH and far NE MA was awful, but nothing close to historic.

[JC-CT]

Don't discount the AGW-induced polar magnetic field reversal. SNE is supposed to get more snow than NNE now.

[codfishsnowman]

There's no real good analogy for SNE comparing to what NNE got this winter (esp NW NNE...Maine didn't get it as bad). Their winter was so anomalous to begin with on the raw totals (prob 1 in 100 years or something). So you are already starting from an extremely rare point. Now add to that extremely rare data point the fact that southeast of them actually was not nearly as bad and just north of them in Quebec was actually good....and it's an even rarer event.

 

SNE's worst winters as a whole were probably 2011-2012, 1994-1995, 1988-1989, 1979-1980, and perhaps 1954-1955 and 1936-1937 if we want to go further back. 1972-1973 was pretty brutal too, but that was more confined to the coastal plain and south of the pike. If you look at those winters, nobody did well to the south...it was terrible down there too...sans maybe Virginia/DC in 1979-1980. But it wasn't right adjacent to SNE...places like NYC and Philly still had garbage winters that year.

 

What we would need to compare is take a winter like 1936-1937 and reduce the snowfall even further (like maybe give BOS 3" on the season and ORH 12" on the season) and then have places like NYC and PHL get 20-25" on the season. But that hasn't happened, so we can't really compare it. 2009-2010 is a loose comparison, but our snow totals in SNE were still largely pretty decent. I was probably much right on average, and BOS was not too far below...SE NH and far NE MA was awful, but nothing close to historic.

i had 24 inches in 09-10, half of my normal snow and same as this year....that year was just horrific 

 

two epic forecast busts that winter....dec and feb, still hurts to think of it

[kdxken]

I wonder when ice out in SNE will be this year?

 

[tamarack]

Yes.

 

2011-2012 was garbage everywhere.

 

09-10 was a mushy mess for Maine and much of eastern NNE, while points to the SW had 4 KU storms.  The December storm was fun, tracking big snow where folks hadn't seen anything decent for years, but by late February that shtick was getting old.

 

As PF noted, we don't live in a vacuum.  11-12, though miserable overall, had its points: the Octobomb (kind of a fizzle at my place, forecast 12-16", actual 4.5"), a nice pre-Thanksgiving snow on which to (unsuccessfully) chase deer, then record-crushing summer temps in March.  Instead of the continuing supply of near misses and what-ifs this year brought (and to a lesser extent, last year for NNE outside of coastal Maine), 11-12 had very few significant storms about which to get excited.  (It's all very subjective anyway.)

[CoastalWx]

Just another Napril day

[powderfreak]

Just another Napril day

 

 

Pure awesomeness.

 

What also wasn't really talked about post-mortem on this one, was how well this was modeled overall.

 

This event was one of those rare ones where it didn't move almost at all inside of 120 hours.  We were all tracking the strong vort the day before, but this event was about as stable as they come for long-lead model forecasts.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

9/10 was a much better winter here than this year.

Here too.

[SouthCoastMA]

This event was one of those rare ones where it didn't move almost at all inside of 120 hours. We were all tracking the strong vort the day before, but this event was about as stable as they come for long-lead model forecasts.

I feel like several SWFE events from the late 2000's were modeled well like this, but I could be wrong.

[powderfreak]

There's no real good analogy for SNE comparing to what NNE got this winter (esp NW NNE...Maine didn't get it as bad). Their winter was so anomalous to begin with on the raw totals (prob 1 in 100 years or something). So you are already starting from an extremely rare point. Now add to that extremely rare data point the fact that southeast of them actually was not nearly as bad and just north of them in Quebec was actually good....and it's an even rarer event.

 

SNE's worst winters as a whole were probably 2011-2012, 1994-1995, 1988-1989, 1979-1980, and perhaps 1954-1955 and 1936-1937 if we want to go further back. 1972-1973 was pretty brutal too, but that was more confined to the coastal plain and south of the pike. If you look at those winters, nobody did well to the south...it was terrible down there too...sans maybe Virginia/DC in 1979-1980. But it wasn't right adjacent to SNE...places like NYC and Philly still had garbage winters that year.

 

What we would need to compare is take a winter like 1936-1937 and reduce the snowfall even further (like maybe give BOS 3" on the season and ORH 12" on the season) and then have places like NYC and PHL get 20-25" on the season. But that hasn't happened, so we can't really compare it. 2009-2010 is a loose comparison, but our snow totals in SNE were still largely pretty decent. I was probably much right on average, and BOS was not too far below...SE NH and far NE MA was awful, but nothing close to historic.

 

Yeah good post, Will.  I wasn't sure if there was a comparable time when SNE had near futility snowfall while places south of them had normal snowfall.  But it seems like all SNE ratters are more general ratters to the south too.  So guess we'll never know what it would be like to have 10" at BOS while DC-PHL goes with numerous winter storm warning events, and NNE is prancing in a solid snow year like Quebec was.

 

The 2009-2010 example is very very loose.  We had a fine winter that year and BTV actually had its largest storm on record in that winter and 90" on the season.   The loose analogy is getting  skunked while whiffed to the south, as I know there are some in SNE that refer to that as a horribly frustrating winter despite the overall totals.

 

Just like this winter, I'm sure anyone near normal in snowfall right now feels like they stole one and probably look back at this winter in a more favorable light than if they had normal snowfall while everyone around them was 150%.

[powderfreak]

I feel like several SWFE events from the late 2000's were modeled well like this, but I could be wrong.

 

Yeah the SWFE always seem very stable...in fact probably like this event when most of it was sort of like an overrunning deal with the April arctic airmass slipping underneath. 

 

The long overrunning or WAA snow systems always seem to be much more stable at lead times than coastals or big wound up storms.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah the SWFE always seem very stable...in fact probably like this event when most of it was sort of like an overrunning deal with the April arctic airmass slipping underneath. 

 

The long overrunning or WAA snow systems always seem to be much more stable at lead times than coastals or big wound up storms.

 

 

SWFE's were always modeled well in terms of hitting us...but sometimes the track could get you in the final 3 days. Some were rock solid while others I recall trending north pretty good. Though usually it was crap models like the NAM that showed a really suppressed solution. The Euro seemed to just hone in on those SWFEs from like 72-84h out and barely budge. Once in a while though you'd get one that even the Euro couldn't quite nail.

 

But yeah, I think it is usually because there are less moving parts in SWFE...there's no phasing usually. Even the past couple of winters...those SWFEs like Feb 5-6, 2014 and even Feb 2nd last year were not moving much inside of 3-4 days.

[powderfreak]

SWFE's were always modeled well in terms of hitting us...but sometimes the track could get you in the final 3 days. Some were rock solid while others I recall trending north pretty good. Though usually it was crap models like the NAM that showed a really suppressed solution. The Euro seemed to just hone in on those SWFEs from like 72-84h out and barely budge. Once in a while though you'd get one that even the Euro couldn't quite nail.

 

But yeah, I think it is usually because there are less moving parts in SWFE...there's no phasing usually. Even the past couple of winters...those SWFEs like Feb 5-6, 2014 and even Feb 2nd last year were not moving much inside of 3-4 days.

 

True and good point with the lack of phasing on SWFEs... man I could go for a winter of those lol.  Not only do they spread the love around a bit more evenly sometimes, but you don't have the model swings that you do in a coastal type of season.  I swear another year like this with the modeling will give me a heart attack, lol. 

 

You don't have the wild swings with phasing or deepening or sharpening of a trough at just the right latitude...its more of there's a cold airmass in place and a bunch of warm air about to come out of the Ohio Valley.  It'll precipitate everywhere and it'll start as snow then go from there. 

[Ginx snewx]

Spring 2016 after a full day of sun

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Guess which side of the yard gets the sun.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Spring 2016 after a full day of sun

Oh yeah, had a full winter walk in the woods with the dog earlier. No ticks either. Lol.

[powderfreak]

Jeez Ginxy that's really impressive. That's solid snow cover.

[Ginx snewx]

Jeez Ginxy that's really impressive. That's solid snow cover.

super low dews, all dark exposed surfaces are cleaned but anything with solid snow and those in the shade are fully covered. April 5th sun is so strong but what a Bluebird day.

[TheSnowman]

Watch in HD.  Sledding on April 5th.  Only the 2nd time in my life that Powder Sledding would have been possible in April.  Other was after the 2 storms in 1996.  Will could tell if either were Powder though.  

 

Link - SLEDDING    

[eekuasepinniW]

It was fine in 360p too.