ryanjn Posted April 4, 2016 Share Posted April 4, 2016 Just completed the Move to N Andover from Nashua I'm literally in the Andover/N Andover/Lawrence line I got an inch in Nashua this A.M, looking at radar at 2am, I thought it would blossom further and when I woke to an inch I knew the widespread 2-4 idea didn't pan out Here's hoping we can get rates to overcome the April sun angle Welcome to town! I'm right by the old center of NA. We get decent wx here. Not always at the top of the snow lists (although we have been a few times) but rarely at the bottom. And we're about right in the middle for convection, win some, lose some. Just north in Haverhill does a bit bit better, and south toward Tewksbury a little better there, but we still get our fair share. Had a microburst 9/6/2014 that prob was pretty close to wherever you are now. Today sucked though. Got a dusting. KLWM is right nearby so that's a solid reporting station. And help yourself to anything in the fridge, neighbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted April 4, 2016 Share Posted April 4, 2016 Think there's a chance for this one to stick to pavement and gravel areas? Probably a better chance than yesterday and the storm a few Monday's ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 4, 2016 Author Share Posted April 4, 2016 Anyone have any good maps of daily snowfall or storm total snowfall from this morning? How fast do NESIS maps come out? Even though they're a bit general with their totals. I know the NERFC site but that usually has totals that are mid storm, from 12z to 12z. I wish this one had more raw values plotted, but this one always comes out almost right away after every storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 4, 2016 Share Posted April 4, 2016 Welcome to town! I'm right by the old center of NA. We get decent wx here. Not always at the top of the snow lists (although we have been a few times) but rarely at the bottom. And we're about right in the middle for convection, win some, lose some. Just north in Haverhill does a bit bit better, and south toward Tewksbury a little better there, but we still get our fair share. Had a microburst 9/6/2014 that prob was pretty close to wherever you are now. Today sucked though. Got a dusting. KLWM is right nearby so that's a solid reporting station. And help yourself to anything in the fridge, neighbor. Tewksbury...decent severe? WTF i love under mile from the Tewks line.....have for the better part of 25 years, and you're wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 4, 2016 Share Posted April 4, 2016 I wish this one had more raw values plotted, but this one always comes out almost right away after every storm Can see Dendrite's screwgie tongue licking my dome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanjn Posted April 4, 2016 Share Posted April 4, 2016 Most guidance has rain getting maybe in the southern third of CT. This airmass is nice and cold but if the precip rates stay kind of low, then the high sun angle will definitely influence the totals...even with the cold temps. Heard that. Sounding profile is much different with this event. We had that crazy low trop this morning with oddly steep lapse rates. Tomorrow is looking like a very brief almost mixed layer then isothermal and a slight inversion in spots. I think snow will prob be light to moderate anywhere north of the MA/CT border, anything mod-heavy will be south. Warmer temps there might give them better aggregated flakes like some areas saw today, too. You think flakes north of the Pike will be small and light? Snow growth isn't really my thing, but always trying to learn somethin new with each event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted April 4, 2016 Share Posted April 4, 2016 Welcome to town! I'm right by the old center of NA. We get decent wx here. Not always at the top of the snow lists (although we have been a few times) but rarely at the bottom. And we're about right in the middle for convection, win some, lose some. Just north in Haverhill does a bit bit better, and south toward Tewksbury a little better there, but we still get our fair share. Had a microburst 9/6/2014 that prob was pretty close to wherever you are now. Today sucked though. Got a dusting. KLWM is right nearby so that's a solid reporting station. And help yourself to anything in the fridge, neighbor. Thank you I like the area. I figure I may be close to the coastal front at times in winter, but I think this area usually holds the cold (except perhaps in a early season coastal). I will miss sort of being out of the game for good ice storms by a about 5 miles or so but we shall see. Closer to the ocean does have some positives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 4, 2016 Author Share Posted April 4, 2016 Heard that. Sounding profile is much different with this event. We had that crazy low trop this morning with oddly steep lapse rates. Tomorrow is looking like a very brief almost mixed layer then isothermal and a slight inversion in spots. I think snow will prob be light to moderate anywhere north of the MA/CT border, anything mod-heavy will be south. Warmer temps there might give them better aggregated flakes like some areas saw today, too. You think flakes north of the Pike will be small and light? Snow growth isn't really my thing, but always trying to learn somethin new with each event. Best snowgrowth for north of pike looks to be in the morning...then the best saturation/lift may drop below the prime SGZ. So yeah, i don't expect great ratios...though they could be decent early on if a band gets going norht of pike in the morning hours. That's kind of the wildcard for that area. If it doesn't happen by lunchtime, then it probably isn't happening for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted April 4, 2016 Share Posted April 4, 2016 NAM not tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted April 4, 2016 Share Posted April 4, 2016 After seeing everything trend south and the latest NAM/HRRR looking like crap north of the MA/CT border, I'm expecting another bust as far as ground accumulations go. Probably 6" in northern CT and a slushy 2" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted April 4, 2016 Share Posted April 4, 2016 NAM not tossed. Same with 4k. But after see our are as a jack spot in the past few storms not play out I'm not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanjn Posted April 4, 2016 Share Posted April 4, 2016 Tewksbury...decent severe? WTF i love under mile from the Tewks line.....have for the better part of 25 years, and you're wrong Well that's your problem, maybe you're a mile in the wrong direction . Tewksbury's had plenty of good storms and a handful of hail reports in the last 20 years. Storms that enter western Essex County usually hit Haverhill,and the upstream developing storms on southern flank usually hit southern part of Andover/Tewks. For communities in the area, they do pretty well comparatively (I'm not comparing them to western, MA, CT, etc obv). Sounds like you're going from memory of if you've experienced good storms or not, which isn't very accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 4, 2016 Share Posted April 4, 2016 After seeing everything trend south and the latest NAM/HRRR looking like crap north of the MA/CT border, I'm expecting another bust as far as ground accumulations go. Probably 6" in northern CT and a slushy 2" here.I'm not that impressed with radar returns in W NY so far. I could see a total bust for lower elevations in W MA if we can't get beyond -SN despite cold temps. I'm thinking 1-2" Greenfield, maybe 3" for MPM and the NW hill folk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted April 4, 2016 Share Posted April 4, 2016 Same with 4k. But after see our are as a jack spot in the past few storms not play out I'm not holding my breath. yup, it'll end up N of us just like today. Should be a decent storm regardless. Nice antecedent airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanjn Posted April 4, 2016 Share Posted April 4, 2016 HRRRX starting to show some 6in+ areas on the 23z. Slightly broader 4-6in area too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ashesj Posted April 4, 2016 Share Posted April 4, 2016 Can someone please post the latest Nam and HRRX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanjn Posted April 4, 2016 Share Posted April 4, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanjn Posted April 4, 2016 Share Posted April 4, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 4, 2016 Share Posted April 4, 2016 Nice look for all of MA. Wonder if that model is picking up on a taint period in CT? Seems to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ashesj Posted April 4, 2016 Share Posted April 4, 2016 Thank you so much Ryan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 4, 2016 Author Share Posted April 4, 2016 RGEM kind of looks like the HRRR: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted April 4, 2016 Share Posted April 4, 2016 Anyone know why Kuchera vs. 10:1 is so different on RGEM, but pretty similar on NAM? Does RGEM have better thermal profiling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted April 4, 2016 Share Posted April 4, 2016 RGEM kind of looks like the HRRR: Looks a bit colder vs the previous run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted April 4, 2016 Share Posted April 4, 2016 If anything, 0z RGEM actually ticked a hair north compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 4, 2016 Author Share Posted April 4, 2016 Anyone know why Kuchera vs. 10:1 is so different on RGEM, but pretty similar on NAM? Does RGEM have better thermal profiling? RGEM is probably warmer at the sfc than the NAM down in S CT. That's my guess without looking at the two methods on the RGEM. Is that where the biggest differences are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted April 4, 2016 Share Posted April 4, 2016 Geez 6" for me is starting to look like a possibility! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted April 4, 2016 Share Posted April 4, 2016 Already had Easily the most snow in April since April Fools Day year of 1996-1997. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted April 4, 2016 Share Posted April 4, 2016 RGEM is probably warmer at the sfc than the NAM down in S CT. That's my guess without looking at the two methods on the RGEM. Is that where the biggest differences are? Actually seems along elevation... RGEM Kuchera (vs. 10:1) seems to be picking up on a more elevation-dependent accumulation... NAM very similar both methods: (note I used 18z RGEM because differences even more pronounced than 0z RGEM): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 4, 2016 Author Share Posted April 4, 2016 Actually seems along elevation... RGEM Kuchera (vs. 10:1) seems to be picking up on a more elevation-dependent accumulation... NAM very similar both methods: (note I used 18z RGEM because differences even more pronounced than 0z RGEM): 0z_NAM_18z_RGEM.jpg Oh yeah...that's weird. The RGEM must be colder in the low levels then over most of MA than the NAM is because it's the low level temps that would be the main driver of the Kuchera difference in that area...since there's no warm layer aloft up in MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted April 4, 2016 Share Posted April 4, 2016 Already had Easily the most snow in April since April Fools Day year of 1996-1997....then you've gotta get out of RI and head out here to where it really snows.I mean, up here where it used to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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