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Moderate Snow Potential 4/4


ORH_wxman

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There's a warm layer to watch for down south...kind of a weird system...it is very cold initially, then it warms aloft rapidly, then everything collapses SE and cools again.

We, I mean I, ping. But I'll probably be at work in the valley then, so really I rain. But then again I'll be locked in a conference room with no windows for most of the day, so, I work.

And April is the new December.

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His area may mix as 850s warm.

It's weird. I never know how to judge April events. Like, it will be cold enough here, but should vis go up to 1-2SM for a time, it will melt even at 31F. So my guess is TOL to ORH will probably do best because of elevation.

Yea.

This is why being concerned about being in the best banding is a bit more warranted this time of year...especially at lower elevations.

Hopefully I can grab 2.5" to catch 2007....I think that is a good over/under for me.

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His area may mix as 850s warm.

It's weird. I never know how to judge April events. Like, it will be cold enough here, but should vis go up to 1-2SM for a time, it will melt even at 31F. So my guess is TOL to ORH will probably do best because of elevation.

Yeah, really it's all elevation assisted once you get past mid March or so.
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Man its cold with the wind now. Last time I remember a pattern like this was 96. There are several periods in the next 2 weeks that could potentially be snowy. Tomorrow is amazingly cold

Good analogy, Steve......just on a smaller scale.

I actually mentioned that year in conversation today....siting that season as the last time they allowed the Sox to open at home, and why.

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I get that the western and northern folks are upset, angry and frustrated..Lord knows i would be, and my time will come when this area gets boners in the behind time and again like they have..and it's even ok to complain a little bit. No problems with that..But MPM type stuff this morning was just gouge your eyeballs out with a plastic spoon type stuff.. Always doubting, always whining, always meh to everything..that kind of stuff has just got to stop. Here many folks were enjoying the storm and whatever they were getting,, and he was meh meh meh meh meh

As you always tell us, "You don't have to read the posts." In fact I think you told us that yesterday.

;)

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Man its cold with the wind now. Last time I remember a pattern like this was 96. There are several periods in the next 2 weeks that could potentially be snowy. Tomorrow is amazingly cold

 

Our son was born 4/5/96 and it snowed for a good portion of the first week after we brought him home. Every time we left the house for a doctors appointment his first few weeks, he was pelted with snow! I'm enjoying the symmetry with his 20th bday on Tuesday. And, he's the reason I read this site!

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Anyone have any good maps of daily snowfall or storm total snowfall from this morning? How fast do NESIS maps come out? Even though they're a bit general with their totals. I know the NERFC site but that usually has totals that are mid storm, from 12z to 12z. 

 

Anywho, I think with todays storm melting upon contact brought down totals less than what QPF should have produced. Also the convective nature of the system made for some very wild swings from town to town. I don't think either of those factors will be as much of an issue with this event tomorrow. A more uniform 2-5in with a few 5-6in spots prob in the Berks and Central Worcester Co possible. But I don't think we'll see one town get 6in while their neighbors get 1.5in like today. The bands will prob be a bit more zonally oriented, and any "convective" type precip will be CT/MA border on south, where it will be wetter and possibly mixed with rain as one nears LI Sound. Ima make a map now. 

 

I think 4km NAM has things farthest south, but mostly in line with HRRR which did pretty well today. It was overdone by an inch or 2 in many spots from the melting I think. But I'm still gonna play it conservative and not gonna highlight any areas above 4in as of now. 

post-6270-0-26819500-1459733040_thumb.jp

 

 

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Our son was born 4/5/96 and it snowed for a good portion of the first week after we brought him home. Every time we left the house for a doctors appointment his first few weeks, he was pelted with snow! I'm enjoying the symmetry with his 20th bday on Tuesday. And, he's the reason I read this site!

Yup, my (then newlywed) wife and I have a picture of a snowman we built 4/9/96 down in Allentown PA... cherry blossoms were out prior to that storm.

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Think there's a chance for this one to stick to pavement and gravel areas?

Better chance than this morning. Temps are mostly at or below freezing across most of the region, so we'll see 8-12 hours of sub freezing temps before the snow starts. 

 

temp.ne.png

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I like DT to Ginxy north through Boston and HubbDave.  It might be a slow process but its a cold airmass.  Hopefully the rates can keep up with any weak solar impact in the valleys in a light hourly rate situation.

 

Here's the 15z hourly precip off the latest HRRR:

 

 

 

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Just completed the Move to N Andover from Nashua

I'm literally in the Andover/N Andover/Lawrence line

I got an inch in Nashua this A.M, looking at radar at 2am, I thought it would blossom further and when I woke to an inch I knew the widespread 2-4 idea didn't pan out

Here's hoping we can get rates to overcome the April sun angle

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I'm trying to figure out if rain is gonna mix in far southern New England. I thought it was for sure earlier, now I'm thinking temps might be a little colder than expected there so the 2-4in line I had thru CT/MA border might have to scoot down 30 miles or so. Anyone else have any thoughts on rain/snow line placement with this one? 

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I'm trying to figure out if rain is gonna mix in far southern New England. I thought it was for sure earlier, now I'm thinking temps might be a little colder than expected there so the 2-4in line I had thru CT/MA border might have to scoot down 30 miles or so. Anyone else have any thoughts on rain/snow line placement with this one? 

 

Most guidance has rain getting maybe in the southern third of CT.

 

This airmass is nice and cold but if the precip rates stay kind of low, then the high sun angle will definitely influence the totals...even with the cold temps.

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