Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

KA. Summer Outlook


WEATHER53

Recommended Posts

Very Hot

50 90+ readings

3. 100+

All 3 months +1 to +3

Rainfall below average but not drought conditions

Most interesting is that he thinks the tropical season will come back with a vengeance with the eastern seaboard being very active from late August into October

As an aside our forecasting services have now expanded into a dozen states. When the phone company discontinued we were hired by DCCOG and now Pepco is a major sponsor

We took over an active number which was getting 2,500 to 5,000 calls per day and that number is now up to 20,000 on routine days and over 50,000 during snow or severe events. You can reach us at 202-589-1212

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 1 month later...

Do it.

 

Wish I could.  Can't work remotely for 4 months, nor can I take 4 months off.  Best summer ever was 2010 when I had to travel to San Diego every other week for work.  Walking out of the San Diego airport and feeling the refreshing ocean breeze made me so happy.  I loved waking up each morning with the coastal stratus overhead, only to see it burn off each afternoon.  The sunrays were certainly strong, but the ocean breeze helped moderate the air temperature.  I dream of West Coast summers, whether it be San Diego, Seattle, or somewhere in between.

 

(outside of summer I enjoy the variability of spring & fall here on the East Coast, as well as the occasional big nor'easter and/or blizzard)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...

Here's my summer outlook. Think we largely return to a 2010-2012 type summer overall in the US. July or August (favoring July) for the warmest departures relative to normal, though I think all three months are above normal. Enhanced 90F days vs the past three summers. Precip sub normal, but convection could occasionally be interesting if we position the mid-level ridge in the Mid-west at times. We'll see on that.

 

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

 

Would probably go 45-50 90F days in DCA.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Your stuff was great during the winter. I learned a lot. I can only hope you're spot on about this summer. I'm looking for a classic DC torch.

 

It's also interesting that you're going with additional precipitation in the southeast due to tropical activity. Like you, I think I'm favoring more "homebrew" development with a more active Gulf and western Atlantic/Caribbean with decreased wind shear as a result of our transition to Nina conditions. It'll be interesting to see how quickly the overall pattern shifts as a result of this ENSO transition. 

With the strength of the NINO, my wag is normal to above precip. Wet or dry, though, this summer should be miserable unless we fluke with well AN precip to hold down temps, but a sauna nonetheless. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Your stuff was great during the winter. I learned a lot. I can only hope you're spot on about this summer. I'm looking for a classic DC torch.

 

It's also interesting that you're going with additional precipitation in the southeast due to tropical activity. Like you, I think I'm favoring more "homebrew" development with a more active Gulf and western Atlantic/Caribbean with decreased wind shear as a result of our transition to Nina conditions. It'll be interesting to see how quickly the overall pattern shifts as a result of this ENSO transition. 

 

Thanks Wxwatcher - appreciate the kind words! I agree w/ you concerning the enhanced tropical development potential closer to the US mainland this year. Wouldn't be surprised to see a named storm pop up within the next couple weeks as we see lowering of heights underneath anomalous ridging in the Northeast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 1 month later...
  • 4 weeks later...
On March 31, 2016 at 2:47 PM, Tenman Johnson said:

Very Hot

50 90+ readings

3. 100+

All 3 months +1 to +3

Rainfall below average but not drought conditions

Most interesting is that he thinks the tropical season will come back with a vengeance with the eastern seaboard being very active from late August into October

As an aside our forecasting services have now expanded into a dozen states. When the phone company discontinued we were hired by DCCOG and now Pepco is a major sponsor

We took over an active number which was getting 2,500 to 5,000 calls per day and that number is now up to 20,000 on routine days and over 50,000 during snow or severe events. You can reach us at 202-589-1212

Looks like July is going to be a dead center bullseye. Number of 90+ on track and even a 100

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 5 weeks later...
On March 31, 2016 at 2:47 PM, Tenman Johnson said:

Very Hot

50 90+ readings

3. 100+

All 3 months +1 to +3

Rainfall below average but not drought conditions

Most interesting is that he thinks the tropical season will come back with a vengeance with the eastern seaboard being very active from late August into October

As an aside our forecasting services have now expanded into a dozen states. When the phone company discontinued we were hired by DCCOG and now Pepco is a major sponsor

We took over an active number which was getting 2,500 to 5,000 calls per day and that number is now up to 20,000 on routine days and over 50,000 during snow or severe events. You can reach us at 202-589-1212

Just about perfection. This month will be outside the +1 to +3 but bullseyed the previous two and the overall 

47 90+ so far so the 50 call looking very good.  Called for 3 100+ and there have been 4

rainfall around average in general and he thought drier , the tropical reference also looks to be right on

winter outlook coming together and will have in about 3 weeks

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...
 

Just about perfection. This month will be outside the +1 to +3 but bullseyed the previous two and the overall 

47 90+ so far so the 50 call looking very good.  Called for 3 100+ and there have been 4

rainfall around average in general and he thought drier , the tropical reference also looks to be right on

winter outlook coming together and will have in about 3 weeks

 

Excellent call. For long range outlooks, this is about as good as it gets in my opinion. Applying some leeway for the uncertainties of summer mesoscale convection, I think this forecast deserves an "A" grade.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Excellent call. For long range outlooks, this is about as good as it gets in my opinion. Applying some leeway for the uncertainties of summer mesoscale convection, I think this forecast deserves an "A" grade.

Yours was stellar also and Z of CWG again too.

There was a lot of hot outlooks but it confirmed.

I think 3-5 long rangers here hit 65-70% of the time and we've seen it long enough to know that.

Nobody cant get 100 so not even really working off of that scale.

85% would be unreal and no one can do it so 65-70 % is really good.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 6 months later...

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...