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April 2016 discussion/obs


WeatherFeen2000

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Huh? February 2015 was one of the coldest months in NYC history at -11.4F, just slightly less impressive than January 1977 and February 1934. Jan-Mar 2015 averaged nearly 7F below normal. November was also below normal three seasons in a row, from Nov 2012 (which featured a major early season snowstorm) through Nov 2014. March was also below normal from 2013 to 2015.

It is true, however, that very few months with cold anomalies have occurred in the warm season since the record-breaking chill of Summer 2009. This, though, is luck: climate models actually show the colder months warming faster than the summer in the long run due to additive albedo and radiative effects. So you can't sustain a substantive argument based on any of the points you have made or implied.

 

How many record cold months have we set in the past 16 years vs record warm months?  This is close to the proof by example logical fallacy.  Yes, we've had some abnormally cold months, but they've been few and far between.  However, warm months in every season have been commonplace, sometimes significantly so.  Of the 12 months of the year, three of them were at their warmest in NYC history just last year (Sept, Nov, Dec).  In the past 20+ years, no month has seen its coldest reading on record.  In fact, the last time NYC set a monthly record for cold (e.g. coldest January on record), Woodrow Wilson was president.

 

In the past 20 years, NYC has 6 of its top 10 warmest months on record (including the top 2), but only one of the top 10 coldest (at #9, Feb 2015).  We also have the single greatest positive temperature departure on record for any month in December of 2015.

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Maybe the NW shift in the Gulf Stream closer to the coast is allowing the ridge

to hang on more just to our south than the models were seeing earlier? In any event, 

the ridge doesn't completely flatten out so the backdoor bounces back north

more easily. It looks like a tug of war between the Western Atlantic Ridge and the

Greenland Block.

 

 

 

older run 

 

 

model seeing more ridge holding on

 

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Maybe the NW shift in the Gulf Stream closer to the coast is allowing the ridge

to hang on more just to our south than the models were seeing earlier? In any event, 

the ridge doesn't completely flatten out so the backdoor bounces back north

more easily. It looks like a tug of war between the Western Atlantic Ridge and the

Greenland Block.

 

attachicon.gif160421.112.0654.n19.jpg

 

attachicon.gifmidatl_oisst_anom_20160419.png

 

older run 

 

attachicon.gifA.png

 

model seeing more ridge holding on

 

attachicon.gifecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_6.png

Been like this through the winter. The eastern ridge is too strong.

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Been like this through the winter. The eastern ridge is too strong.

 

It's a good thing that the record kara block built back across the pole and tanked the -AO. Otherwise we would

have crushed 2001-2002 for the warmest winter. We are into the type of patterns in the 2000's where

we need exceptional blocking just to temper the record warmth a bit before it eventually rebounds.

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It's a good thing that the record kara block built back across the pole and tanked the -AO. Otherwise we would

have crushed 2001-2002 for the warmest winter. We are into the type of patterns in the 2000's where

we need exceptional blocking just to temper the record warmth a bit before it eventually rebounds.

Thank god we got that block. Otherwise, the blizzard would have missed the area.

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Huh? February 2015 was one of the coldest months in NYC history at -11.4F, just slightly less impressive than January 1977 and February 1934. Jan-Mar 2015 averaged nearly 7F below normal. November was also below normal three seasons in a row, from Nov 2012 (which featured a major early season snowstorm) through Nov 2014. March was also below normal from 2013 to 2015.

It is true, however, that very few months with cold anomalies have occurred in the warm season since the record-breaking chill of Summer 2009. This, though, is luck: climate models actually show the colder months warming faster than the summer in the long run due to additive albedo and radiative effects. So you can't sustain a substantive argument based on any of the points you have made or implied.

 

You are taking an extremely rare anomaly and using it in your argument.

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I wonder if anyone keeps RH stats for Central Park? Yesterday had a good shot at 

making it close to the driest hourly reading ever at only 9%. Don't recall seeing

many hourly readings under 10% over the years.

 

 17:51 Calm 10.00 Fair CLR 67 6  RH 9%

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Red Flag Warning up again for parts of the area

 

.CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR RAPID BRUSH FIRE SPREAD THIS
AFTERNOON...

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ071>075-176-178-212200-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FW.W.0003.160421T1600Z-160421T2200Z/
WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-
EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-
EASTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-
SOUTHERN QUEENS-
1057 AM EDT THU APR 21 2016

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

* AFFECTED AREA...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...NEW YORK CITY...AND
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER COUNTY NEW YORK.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...20 TO 30 PERCENT.

* TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...RAPID FIRE SPREAD IF IGNITION OCCURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS WILL CREATE A SIGNIFICANTLY
ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

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RGEM even drier-what rain?

 

 

If we can just hold this pattern though May, then we'll have our first top ten driest season since 01-02.

But past dry stretches have folded after about two months recently so we'll see how much longer 

the streak can continue. Made it to D0 on the drought monitor this week. 

 

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/RegionalDroughtMonitor.aspx?northeast

 

Driest springs in NYC

1st   place   4.95

10th place   7.05

 

 spring 2016 so far 2.33

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A rare dry nino.  It's been fairly dry here the last 18 months overall.

 

The strongest 500 mb ridge from April to March on record did the job deflecting the storm track

away from our area. You can see how the historic rains wound up around Texas with the STJ

butting up against record block over our area.

 

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The strongest 500 mb ridge from April to March on record did the job deflecting the storm track

away from our area. You can see how the historic rains wound up around Texas with the STJ

butting up against record block over our area.

2016_2_3_12_5_5_2_90_-90_0_360.png

I hope it changes in time for next winter and gives us a favorable set up

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I hope it changes in time for next winter and gives us a favorable set up

 

We'll be fine as long as the blocking shifts back to the Arctic like it did this Jan into Feb.

The record blocking shifting to the North Pole set us up for the historic blizzard and follow up storm.

NYC is batting 12 near to above normal snowfall seasons out of the last 16. 

 

 

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With today's 73°-49° temperature range, New York City's negative monthly temperature anomaly has been erased. New York City now has a +0.1° anomaly for April. The monthly anomaly had been negative from April 5 through April 20.

 

Yeah, that was our longest cold anomaly stretch since March 2015. The only thing left to see is if all the

strong blocking this month continues the cooler April max temperatures for NYC since 2013. We'll finish

with a positive departure and perhaps the 4th April in a row with a high below 85 degrees.

 

 

NYC April highs

 

2016...82 so far

2015...80

2014...77

2013...82

2012...88

2011...83

2010...92

2009...92

2008...84

2007...86

2006...83

2005...87

2004...85

2003...88

2002...96

2001...87

2000...75

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