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April 2016 discussion/obs


WeatherFeen2000

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NYC through April 13th is still colder than the December 2015 average temperature was.

So far this month the average temperature in NYC is 47.0 vs 50.8 for December.

That is some stat. That would be the equivalent of having the first half of October warmer than all of June.
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This is one of the driest long range looks I've seen in a long time. There can always be one of those sneaky cutoffs to muck that scenario up this time of year, but this certainly could set the stage for a historic drought heading into the summer.

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This is one of the driest long range looks I've seen in a long time. There can always be one of those sneaky cutoffs to muck that scenario up this time of year, but this certainly could set the stage for a historic drought heading into the summer.

Anything is possible. We've seen countless dry spells end in deluges but I agree we will be impacted again by a major drought sometime in the future. It's not a matter of if but when and how the states respond.

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80 is possible monday

 

 

80s look possible late next week.

The ridge at the end of the month looks even stronger. Early May has heat wave potential, IMO.

 

It really won't take much to hit 80 this time of year as the warm days have exceeded guidance recently.

 

The funny thing is that it has been easier for NYC to reach 70 in December since 2010 than hit 90 in April.

NYC made it to 70 in December in 2015 and 2013. The last 90 degree day during April was back in 2010.

 

April high temperature in NYC since 2000:

 

2016...79 so far

2015...80

2014...77

2013...82

2012...88

2011...83

2010...92

2009...92

2008...84

2007...86

2006...83

2005...87

2004...85

2003...88

2002...96

2001...87

2000...75

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Anything is possible. We've seen countless dry spells end in deluges but I agree we will be impacted again by a major drought sometime in the future. It's not a matter of if but when and how the states respond.

Historic is a bit of a stretch, but we've definitely been flirting with a longer term trend towards drier conditions. We're at our lowest 3 year precipitation moving average since 2003. If the long term forecast becomes reality, you'll start seeing  areas throughout the northeast approaching D1 conditions by the end of the month given the dry start to the year.

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Historic is a bit of a stretch, but we've definitely been flirting with a longer term trend towards drier conditions. We're at our lowest 3 year precipitation moving average since 2003. If the long term forecast becomes reality, you'll start seeing  areas throughout the northeast approaching D1 conditions by the end of the month given the dry start to the year.

 

Drought has been the one weather extreme that we have been able to avoid since the last top ten driest year in 2001.

As soon as it looks like a dry pattern may begin to take hold, we get a big precip event or series of events to end it.

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Drought has been the one weather extreme that we have been able to avoid since the last top ten driest year in 2001.

As soon as it looks like a dry pattern may begin to take hold, we get a big precip event or series of events to end it.

Most of long island was in major/severe drought last year for a decent stretch if my memory is correct.
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Most of long island was in major/severe drought last year for a decent stretch if my memory is correct.

I think drought on Long Island has less of an impact on people than in other areas. All of the drinking water comes from deep aquifers that aren't like resivoirs that get impacted by short term drough.
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Drought has been the one weather extreme that we have been able to avoid since the last top ten driest year in 2001.

As soon as it looks like a dry pattern may begin to take hold, we get a big precip event or series of events to end it.

Yup. No way of knowing for sure due to the limited amount of recorded data, but this latest moist regime is probably one of the wettest stretch of years in the last 2-300 years. I think we're starting to turn the corner on that given the drier weather we've been having the last few years, though. That being said, it's still difficult to imagine any kind of scenario in which drought would have a significant impact on the way of life around here. At the very worst we still manage 30" of precip/year. This area of the globe just doesn't really favor sustained drought.

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Yup. No way of knowing for sure due to the limited amount of recorded data, but this latest moist regime is probably one of the wettest stretch of years in the last 2-300 years. I think we're starting to turn the corner on that given the drier weather we've been having the last few years, though. That being said, it's still difficult to imagine any kind of scenario in which drought would have a significant impact on the way of life around here. At the very worst we still manage 30" of precip/year. This area of the globe just doesn't really favor sustained drought.

 

Yeah, we went form the driest period in hundreds of years during the 60's to the wettest from the 1970's to now.

 

https://seaandskyny.com/2012/04/29/trees-tell-the-story-of-500-years-of-nyc-drought-history/

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Yeah, we went form the driest period in hundreds of years during the 60's to the wettest from the 1970's to now.

 

https://seaandskyny.com/2012/04/29/trees-tell-the-story-of-500-years-of-nyc-drought-history/

Wow. Cool article. I know the 60s were bad precip wise, but how much of an impact did it have on life around here? I've never really heard the family elders mention anything drastic, if at all about that drought.

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It really won't take much to hit 80 this time of year as the warm days have exceeded guidance recently.

 

The funny thing is that it has been easier for NYC to reach 70 in December since 2010 than hit 90 in April.

NYC made it to 70 in December in 2015 and 2013. The last 90 degree day during April was back in 2010.

 

April high temperature in NYC since 2000:

 

2016...79 so far

2015...80

2014...77

2013...82

2012...88

2011...83

2010...92

2009...92

2008...84

2007...86

2006...83

2005...87

2004...85

2003...88

2002...96

2001...87

2000...75

That 2002 early heat wave was very impressive...from the 16th thru the 19th had high Temps of 91,91,96 and 91 here...sure put up the ac early that year.
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April monthly max/min and average max/min...

decade.....max...min...ave max ave min.
1870's........na...20..........na........na........
1880's........84...21.........77.6.......27.4.....

1890's........90...24.........79.1.......28.2.....
1900's........84...24.........77.7.......30.4.....
1910's........92...22.........79.6.......29.3.....
1920's........90...12.........82.6.......28.3.....
1930's........89...28.........79.0.......31.9.....
1940's........91...24.........79.7.......31.5.....
1950's........85...23.........81.1.......31.7.....
1960's........91...28.........82.9.......31.8.....
1970's........96...25.........84.2.......29.1.....
1980's........88...21.........79.9.......31.8.....
1990's........91...23.........81.3.......32.4.....
2000's........96...29.........86.3.......32.0.....
2010's........92...31.........83.3.......34.9.....2010-15

2016..........79...26.........79.0........26.0....as of 4/14

1870-
2009.............................80.8.......30.4.....

1980-
2009.............................82.5.......32.1.....

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That 2002 early heat wave was very impressive...from the 16th thru the 19th had high Temps of 91,91,96 and 91 here...sure put up the ac early that year.

 

Yeah, that followed our famous year without a winter. The Long Beach boardwalk was full of bike riders and joggers

all winter with crowds more common for mild spring days.

 

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Wow. Cool article. I know the 60s were bad precip wise, but how much of an impact did it have on life around here? I've never really heard the family elders mention anything drastic, if at all about that drought.

 

I Can't remember the exact year Central Park recorded a little ove 31 inches of rain but I recall backyard well digging occuring in my part of Brooklyn at that time.

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I Can't remember the exact year Central Park recorded a little ove 31 inches of rain but I recall backyard well digging occuring in my part of Brooklyn at that time.

Interesting. Drinking the water underneath my backyard would be a death sentence. :lol:

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