JasonOH Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 I'm going to hold tight in Norman for now and keep watching the Obs and satellite. I'll probably leave around 2 with my group and head for the best break in the clouds along the dryline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 Well this is a bit different from what we've been seeing this year... Impressive moisture return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 30, 2016 Author Share Posted March 30, 2016 A little over an hour out from DSM, trying to figure out if I want to play the triple point feature in NE/IA or the dry line in KS.Decided to head towards the IA/NE border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 30, 2016 Author Share Posted March 30, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 Not even going to bother with a backyard chase today, save for the SE corner, KS is looking like an absolute mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 Looks like I won't have to leave home if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 Higher surface-based CAPE values are developing in central Oklahoma. SPC says there is a 80% chance of a watch being issued. Here is abbreviated SPC meso discussion. (Read the full discussion at the SPC web page if you want to.) MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0284 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FURTHER W...SFC OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL KS INTO NWRN OK AND THEN SWWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. BETWEEN THESE SFC FEATURES AND ELEVATED CONVECTION TO E...A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF HEATING HAS OCCURRED THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON... THIS CONVECTION WILL POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IS LESS CLEAR...WITH A VEER-BACK-VEER SIGNATURE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 Solid instability, but veering wind profiles and meager low level wind shear suggest more of a hail threat than anything. We'll see how this evolves through the afternoon. (also veer-back issues noted with the 18z soundings from LMN and OUN) Models have struggled a bit with convective evolution thus far too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 Solid instability, but veering wind profiles and meager low level wind shear suggest more of a hail threat than anything. We'll see how this evolves through the afternoon. (also veer-back issues noted with the 18z soundings from LMN and OUN) Models have struggled a bit with convective evolution thus far too. well a lot of the low-level winds will back a bit more toward 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 30, 2016 Author Share Posted March 30, 2016 Dry line is quickly mixing east in KS/OK towards the broken line of severe storms from OKC up to ICT and EMP. East of there is stable air from convection that has been ongoing across E. OK/SE. KS/MO. Will be interesting to see what kind of threat evolves there with such a narrow window of opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 a couple of storms with large hail, east and west of DFW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 Dry line is quickly mixing east in KS/OK towards the broken line of severe storms from OKC up to ICT and EMP. East of there is stable air from convection that has been ongoing across E. OK/SE. KS/MO. Will be interesting to see what kind of threat evolves there with such a narrow window of opportunity. There's a couple cells SE of Wichita that could produce if they manage to stay somewhat discrete. However the main show is probably going to be across the Arklatex for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 Individual cells west of Fort Worth are starting to congeal into a line and are shifting more easterly as opposed to individual northeast movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 Just west of Davis, Ok. We had an anticyclonic rotation go directly over us. Moving east now to stay up with our storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 30, 2016 Author Share Posted March 30, 2016 Dry line is quickly mixing east in KS/OK towards the broken line of severe storms from OKC up to ICT and EMP. East of there is stable air from convection that has been ongoing across E. OK/SE. KS/MO. Will be interesting to see what kind of threat evolves there with such a narrow window of opportunity. Had some supercell structures in that activity, with large hail.Nice tor warned sup west of Bartlesville, OK currently. Storm is moving into an area that was recently affected by storms/debris, but is rapidly destabilizing in the wake of that activity and has locally backed winds to the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 Had some supercell structures in that activity, with large hail. Nice tor warned sup west of Bartlesville, OK currently. Storm is moving into an area that was recently affected by storms/debris, but is rapidly destabilizing in the wake of that activity and has locally backed winds to the SE. Did you end up setting up at the IA/NE border? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 30, 2016 Author Share Posted March 30, 2016 Did you end up setting up at the IA/NE border?Didn't make it that far. Decided to sit in Atlantic, IA.Have had a few towers make an attempt to the W and SW, but that's about it thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 TOR warning for Johnson County, immediately south of Fort Worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokey_mountain_vols Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 Just west of Davis, Ok. We had an anticyclonic rotation go directly over us. Moving east now to stay up with our storm.This thing died out, haven't seen much here in Tulsa. Don't think I will today either.Sent from my HTC6525LVW using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 If I were chasing tomorrow I'd probably set up shop near Abilene, or Junction City KS. This area will be on the north side of some of the best buoyancy, and the NAM shows surface winds backing pretty nicely by 00z. ..and I would have busted badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 its a mess but some storms over S AR developing hooks and couplets including this one TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN DALLAS COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... SOUTHWESTERN GRANT COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS... * UNTIL 630 PM CDT * AT 553 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SPARKMAN...OR 19 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ARKADELPHIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 70mph+ winds reported in Burleson in southern Tarrant County, TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 The cell passing over Rodessa, LA in far NW LA about to enter Arkansas isn't warned yet, but it probably should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 Well, there's the SVR for the Rodessa cell. It's getting it's act together and will pass over I-49 in the next 30 minutes. Hopefully it stays just a SVR warned storm.I think they should put a TOR on this cell, but it looks like an HP nightmare... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 another BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 618 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS... NORTHERN CLEVELAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS... * UNTIL 700 PM CDT * AT 618 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER RISON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 dont understand why the Ida cell isn't TOR wanted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 621 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... WEST CENTRAL COLUMBIA COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... SOUTHERN MILLER COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... SOUTHWESTERN NEVADA COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... * UNTIL 700 PM CDT * AT 620 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER IDA...OR 15 MILES EAST OF ATLANTA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. LAT...LON 3316 9325 3302 9374 3302 9401 3308 9404 3347 9348 TIME...MOT...LOC 2320Z 232DEG 37KT 3304 9391 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...<.75IN $$ VII Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 4 separate tornado warned cells now ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 614 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN CAMP COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS... SOUTHWESTERN TITUS COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS... EASTERN WOOD COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS... NORTHWESTERN UPSHUR COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS... SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS... * UNTIL 700 PM CDT * AT 614 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR HAINESVILLE...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF MINEOLA... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 Didn't make it that far. Decided to sit in Atlantic, IA. Have had a few towers make an attempt to the W and SW, but that's about it thus far. Looking like that was a good call, all things considered for this. That cell west of Guthrie Center looks to be riding the warm front/triple point and I wouldn't be surprised if there is a wall cloud right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0292 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0615 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...ARK-LA-MISS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 60... VALID 302315Z - 310045Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 60 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...PORTIONS OF WW 60 HAVE BEEN LOCALLY EXTENDED IN CNTRL/SRN AR AND A NEW TORNADO WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED ACROSS THE ARK-LA-MISS REGION. DISCUSSION...TRANSIENT ROTATIONAL SIGNATURES HAVE BEEN NOTED WITHIN A MESSY CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS CNTRL/S-CNTRL AR. THIS ACTIVITY IS EVOLVING WITHIN VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR CHARACTERIZED BY 50-60 KT 1-KM AGL FLOW PER 21Z LZK RAOB AND LZK VWP DATA. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS...21Z LZK RAOB SUGGESTS CONVECTION NEAR/N OF THE LITTLE ROCK METRO AREA WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO HAVE APPRECIABLE STRETCHING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...FARTHER SE WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S...THE RISK FOR AN EMBEDDED SUPERCELL PRODUCING A TORNADO SHOULD DEVELOP E INTO THE ARK-LA-MISS PORTION OF THE MS VALLEY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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