SnowGoose69 Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 16 hours ago, snowman19 said: There are a few people posting about it on twitter today but the Atlantic is starting to look real unfavorable for high latitude blocking ssta wise It looks pretty good to me. It's the first time in years we've had that much warm water by Greenland and Iceland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim198 Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It looks pretty good to me. It's the first time in years we've had that much warm water by Greenland and Iceland I don't agree. The cold pool in the north Atlantic is starting to strengthen and is looking similar to recent years which had positive NAO winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 Latest values: Nino 1.2: +0.1 (-0.5) Nino 3: -0.6 (-0.4) Nino 3.4: -0.9 (-0.1) Nino 4: -0.6 (-0.1) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for There we go La Nina... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 soi isn't cooperating the last few days... https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 10 hours ago, Tim198 said: I don't agree. The cold pool in the north Atlantic is starting to strengthen and is looking similar to recent years which had positive NAO winters. That's exactly what was being said on twitter, North Atlantic cold pool strengthening and expanding, AMO going negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: That's exactly what was being said on twitter, North Atlantic cold pool strengthening and expanding, AMO going negative 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: That's exactly what was being said on twitter, North Atlantic cold pool strengthening and expanding, AMO going negative Not by any famous met, and besides at this point it's speculation. Nobody has proven a way to forecast the NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 4 hours ago, snowman19 said: That's exactly what was being said on twitter, North Atlantic cold pool strengthening and expanding, AMO going negative Euro monthlies show a -AO and -NAO for November -January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Euro monthlies show a -AO and -NAO for November -January. 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Euro monthlies show a -AO and -NAO for November -January. Are they somehow infallible? Never wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 35 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Are they somehow infallible? Never wrong? Are you never wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Are you never wrong? 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Are you never wrong? Never said I wasn't, which is why I said to wait until November to make judgements yesterday. You do realize that the early November run of the Euro could totally flip on a dime right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim198 Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 Latest UKMet seasonal forecast has backed off on the cold look in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 11, 2016 Author Share Posted October 11, 2016 42 minutes ago, Tim198 said: Latest UKMet seasonal forecast has backed off on the cold look in the east. That's showing an -AO/-NAO + PDO. I'm sure that would bring cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 10 hours ago, snowman19 said: Are they somehow infallible? Never wrong? he's just saying what he saw on Twitter just like you it's just an observation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 9 hours ago, snowman19 said: Never said I wasn't, which is why I said to wait until November to make judgements yesterday. You do realize that the early November run of the Euro could totally flip on a dime right? I've noticed for the last 3 years you will promote anything that shows a warm winter.Your posts are informative but slightly bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 9 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said: I've noticed for the last 3 years you will promote anything that shows a warm winter.Your posts are informative but slightly bias His posts are very informative but like you said, slight bias. I never seen him forecast cold and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 5 hours ago, dmillz25 said: That's showing an -AO/-NAO + PDO. I'm sure that would bring cold Also a -PNA and the -NAO is east based which would be good for the Midwest but not so good for the coast. The interior would probably do alright though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 11, 2016 Author Share Posted October 11, 2016 5 minutes ago, Stebo said: Also a -PNA and the -NAO is east based which would be good for the Midwest but not so good for the coast. The interior would probably do alright though. Question why would an east based - NAO be bad for the coast? I thought it would be good for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 59 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Question why would an east based - NAO be bad for the coast? I thought it would be good for the coast http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2012/10/east-based-v-west-based-negative-nao.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 26 minutes ago, PB GFI said: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2012/10/east-based-v-west-based-negative-nao.html Yeah this is a great explanation here. it basically forces a ridge along the coast which also combined with a -PNA would be bad for the coast. The mean trough would be forced back over the plains and the midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 11, 2016 Author Share Posted October 11, 2016 Oh ok I see. Thanks guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 JAPANESE , TOKYO CLIMATE MODEL / DEC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 11, 2016 Author Share Posted October 11, 2016 4 hours ago, Stebo said: Also a -PNA and the -NAO is east based which would be good for the Midwest but not so good for the coast. The interior would probably do alright though. Another question how is it showing a -PNA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 7 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Another question how is it showing a -PNA? The ridging along the east coast extending from Bermuda to the Carolinas and up into the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 11, 2016 Author Share Posted October 11, 2016 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: The ridging along the east coast extending from Bermuda to the Carolinas and up into the Northeast. Oh oh I see. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 11 hours ago, dmillz25 said: Question why would an east based - NAO be bad for the coast? I thought it would be good for the coast It isn't always bad. It largely depends on how east based it is. Some people refer to a -NAO where the ridging is over central or eastern Greenland as an east based NAO. To me that is more central based. I consider east based over Iceland and near the UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 Someone was right... #LaNina Watch reissued with 70% chance of developing during fall. Weak short lived event predicted @NWSCPC. https://t.co/l2UVdjsfWS https://t.co/7YVyt6Lkro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 NOAA reissues the La Niña Watch. Egg on their face again. Ridiculous that they cancelled it in the first place. Welcome back to the party... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 WEAK LA NINA`s are fine when wanting to keep the S/E ridges just weak enough . We could either use a - EPO or West based blocking ( or at the very least , blocking that rolls back W ) to help . Too early , but the LA NINA is weak and probably short lived . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 Accuweather ( back in June ) called for La Nina to come back http://unofficialnetworks.com/2016/06/accuweather-gives-their-la-nina-outlook-here-are-the-winners-and-losers Weak La Nina would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 13, 2016 Author Share Posted October 13, 2016 23 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Accuweather ( back in June ) called for La Nina to come back http://unofficialnetworks.com/2016/06/accuweather-gives-their-la-nina-outlook-here-are-the-winners-and-losers Weak La Nina would be nice I don't mind a weak niña as long as there's blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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