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FXWX

Model Mezzanine - April(Fools) General Model Discussion

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There could be a tremendous gradient in temps on Thursday from SW CT to say NE CT into BOS.

Yea. I'm thinking similarly. I haven't looked down into Connecticut, but the trend, at least on the NAM has been colder surface temps from SNH to Boston on Thurs.

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Yea. I'm thinking similarly. I haven't looked down into Connecticut, but the trend, at least on the NAM has been colder surface temps from SNH to Boston on Thurs.

The NAM and Euro have an extra push of LLVL CAA while the GFS continues to slowly push the warm front through. I think I'll put my money on the NAM/EC. H7 is bone dry Thu night...looks like it could be a classic -FZDZ setup while MWN has breaks in the clouds/fog and looks at some undercast.

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The NAM and Euro have an extra push of LLVL CAA while the GFS continues to slowly push the warm front through. I think I'll put my money on the NAM/EC. H7 is bone dry Thu night...looks like it could be a classic -FZDZ setup while MWN has breaks in the clouds/fog and looks at some undercast.

Yes predominately -fzdz. I'm thinking we could see see some weak isentropic lift (light freezing rain) due to the significant thickness gradient.

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The NAM and Euro have an extra push of LLVL CAA while the GFS continues to slowly push the warm front through. I think I'll put my money on the NAM/EC. H7 is bone dry Thu night...looks like it could be a classic -FZDZ setup while MWN has breaks in the clouds/fog and looks at some undercast.

 

That's really a heck of a cold push right into your hood. Kind of cool IMO. 

 

Meanwhile, I just looked at Wisconsin.....wow. They're gonna get crushed near Green Bay.

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There could be a tremendous gradient in temps on Thursday from SW CT to say NE CT into BOS. 

yeah wow, as modeled could be 20-25 degrees.  I'll take my torch!

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Euro with a really nice upslope event day 6 on the backside of that low. That'd be warning criteria for the mountains.

 

jesus, how about the colossal bomb in the GOM on D7 ... lord!  get that thing under our latitude and look out - 

 

it would be hard to see that happen with heights as high as they are in the deep south and southeast - it's actually odd to see the Euro conserve so much mechanical power along such a narrow amount of latitude as it is...

 

plus  :wacko2:  it's daaaaaay 7.   

 

by the way - that evil part of me that hates winter now and would rather it be nice and summery is still lurking and liking the look of D9 and 10 on this run.  not the warmest, but definitely a couple of good days in there. at least it shows that even in a vomit pattern such as the season forgetting how to turn the page ... we can eek a couple of seasonally warm days in there.

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the 00z Euro's D6/7 scenario (and I'm only citing that model for the purpose of the example..) is the best hope for those holding out against the inevitability of seasonal change ...

 

There is a bit of medium scaled synoptic ridging rolling out through the Plains at the time that wave is shunting through the OV.  In terms of mid-level total wave spacing, that evolution offers a less contention for larger scale L/W, wave spacing arguments.  

 

Otherwise, the cutters are likely to take advantage of a pattern that is settled into a west-based PNAP ... where the western ridge is too far west for us E of the 90th longitude.  Still, ...the -EPO will keep Canada cold, and the bleed of inversion cold slices will be there .. iffy

 

I like the D8, 9 and quasi 10's warm up.  Shows how you can pull that off in a -EPO ... D9 would be a day similar to to the uber well mixed warm psycho day we had a couple clicks ago that managed 80 F routinely through the area.  

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Euro has 62F for BDL on Thursday. Looks like Kevin's 30s may be in trouble.

 

i'm actually finding that battle interesting... 

 

the Euro, as we know, is inside of D4.5 so by historical reference should be performing remarkably well..  still, climo argues it's succumbed to the recent opioid addiction sweeping the nation.   

 

the 12z NAM is blasting the warm front N of Boston by Friday 12z.

 

the general flow structure across the continent does offer argument of strong mlv warm pushes east of 90 W so it could easily result it the less climo suggested warm penetration too 

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62 seems optimistic. Maybe if it's totally sunny? They should have E-NE winds. I know they can torch...but that seems warm to me. 

 

Agreed - I think the Euro/RGEM projections are way too bullish with those temps given an E flow.

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Agreed - I think the Euro/RGEM projections are way too bullish with those temps given an E flow.

 

I find that odd. Usually I would think euro would be on the cooler side. I wonder if it keeps BDL mostly sunny. 

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technically this is still in March ...but, wow at the D8 and 9 Euro next week.  epic beauts there, with 850s +5 to +12(eventually) and deep layer SW flow all levels around retreating high. 

 

it even hints at some sort of tropical like disturbance SE of Bermuda ...which may be baroclinic but just sayin' on the rip and read. 

 

anyway, that's three cycles of Euro with that look ending next work week.  bring it on!   nice to have a couple of days like that modeled during an otherwise spring-mottling convoluted flow structure.  ...relative to all that's getting pretty lucky if that holds...

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Man what a torch to close out the month and enter April ..75-80 days in there

I'm so ready for the warmth..I hope it comes and stays.  Who needs upper 30's and low 40's this time of year, that just sucks!!

 

I hope the cold that we've been talking about stays west too-so done with this winter.  

 

Unless there is the possibility of a significant event(snow) with that cold weather...which has really not materialized this season(everything comes in weaker/east/west/north/south).    NNE looks to perhaps have a shot-they can have it cuz we've had more than them in most cases this year.  

 

So I'm just ready for the nice weather, and we'll take our chances next winter.  

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Man what a torch to close out the month and enter April ..75-80 days in there

Looks like only 1-2 days of warmth right now with April Fools the warmest on the EPS. We'll see if the WAA speeds up for 3/31 or if the cold fropa lags for 4/2 with dprog/dt. You're going to need to see those midlevel temps warm if you want 80F at BDL though. 8-9C won't cut it.

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