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Damage In Tolland

April Pattern Disco -2016

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Did you see your beloved GFS?

 

The model that loves to mix out the boundary layer? Yeah, I did. We know how SW flow off the cold water loves to mix out deeply this time of year.

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Thankfully BOX on it and we in and up

 

 

Meh.

 

Maybe BOX can hoist the wind advisory tonight and get some lead time.

 

NAM

 

post-44-0-05652600-1459251426_thumb.png

 

GFS

 

post-44-0-51729700-1459251446_thumb.png

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They talking HWW not whimpy advisory

 

Because this wimpy advisory is working out so well right now.

 

I know they'll get every twig down today, but so far I've only seen PK WNDs hit 40 knots at ORH and BDL, one hour each. That's not really screaming widespread advisory to me.

 

 

As for Thursday, I'd really like to see a stronger signal than just the GFS touting HWW criteria. NAEFS hardly cracking a 2 SD LLJ.

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Heh, I know that guy...

 

Let the public hype begin.  I can see it now...Heavy, heavy doses of "What ever happen to global warming?"  comments heard at office water coolers and barbershops across the nation.  

 

http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/subfreezing-highs-to-return-to-northeastern-us-as-polar-vortex-shifts-southward/ar-BBr1X9Q?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=iehp

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Yeah....polar vortex in April? I dunno....doesn't really have the same feel. 

I would've said "lobe of the tropospheric PV" but that wouldn't sit well with anyone in that dept. (that I'm not in...)

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I would've said "lobe of the tropospheric PV" but that wouldn't sit well with anyone in that dept. (that I'm not in...)

 

Just hype up a snowstorm next week. That will get the headlines. :lol:

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But in all seriousness, I'm not on here much anymore (though apparently my tweets get talked about ocassionally?)  :lol:

 

Twitter's 140 characters certainly make the tweets lose their value sometimes- tough to talk LR wx with that much room. Anyways, does look like once that -EPO recovers, looks like the bigger key to end the month is western ridging and h5 shenanigans up near AK and the Aleutians. Despite ECMWF weeklies pointing warm, seeing ridging in western Canada doesn't exactly make me excited for extreme warmth...

 

Guess overall I like normal or above post 4/15.

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But in all seriousness, I'm not on here much anymore (though apparently my tweets get talked about ocassionally?)  :lol:

 

Twitter's 140 characters certainly make the tweets lose their value sometimes- tough to talk LR wx with that much room. Anyways, does look like once that -EPO recovers, looks like the bigger key to end the month is western ridging and h5 shenanigans up near AK and the Aleutians. Despite ECMWF weeklies pointing warm, seeing ridging in western Canada doesn't exactly make me excited for extreme warmth...

 

Guess overall I like normal or above post 4/15.

 

I pretty much agree. The weeklies had some pretty orange colors at 500mb, but not overwhelmingly so. Couple that will cold in SE Quebec....I just don't see a lot of prolonged warmth week 3 and 4. 

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But in all seriousness, I'm not on here much anymore (though apparently my tweets get talked about ocassionally?) :lol:

Twitter's 140 characters certainly make the tweets lose their value sometimes- tough to talk LR wx with that much room. Anyways, does look like once that -EPO recovers, looks like the bigger key to end the month is western ridging and h5 shenanigans up near AK and the Aleutians. Despite ECMWF weeklies pointing warm, seeing ridging in western Canada doesn't exactly make me excited for extreme warmth...

Guess overall I like normal or above post 4/15.

hey Ed, why did you tweet compare Euro 850 to GFS surface temps at different times to make a point about differences in cold. Just wondering as you usually make great points in tweets

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hey Ed, why did you tweet compare Euro 850 to GFS surface temps at different times to make a point about differences in cold. Just wondering as you usually make great points in tweets

Hey Steve! I have been told to not post "premium" ECMWF data on social media so I obliged w/ 24h maps from TropicalTidbits (which doesn't have free EPS 2mT anoms). Whole different topic for a different day...

 

They were different, but the point I was making was that the EPS was less amped and quicker to pivot out the cool down versus GEFS yesterday. 140 characters sucks sometimes.

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I pretty much agree. The weeklies had some pretty orange colors at 500mb, but not overwhelmingly so. Couple that will cold in SE Quebec....I just don't see a lot of prolonged warmth week 3 and 4. 

Yeah, certainly warmer than wks 1-2, but not the warmth I was honestly expecting for April. Do think warmth builds in the Plains wks 3-4. Question is does it slingshot east closer to 5/1 or get  knocked back with lower heights in Quebec?

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Everything, every month has verified warmer than progged

 

As son as the snow melts in Se Canada over next few weeks..we'll see the cold disappear quickly on modeling. April to me looks +3 or so in BOS..and that's after a cold start

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Putting aside the biased and skewed views based on the utter futility of the season, you have to like the look going forward for some late-season mischief. Whether it's a coating or sonething more significant is anyone's guess but I think accumulating snowfall is a decent possibility during the April 3 - 10 period. Some places may even coat it up with the influx of Arctic air late Saturday night and early Sunday, especially in the higher terrain

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Putting aside the biased and skewed views based on the utter futility of the season, you have to like the look going forward for some late-season mischief. Whether it's a coating or sonething more significant is anyone's guess but I think accumulating snowfall is a decent possibility during the April 3 - 10 period. Some places may even coat it up with the influx of Arctic air late Saturday night and early Sunday, especially in the higher terrain

Noreaster please or its tits on a bull

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Noyes has 2 chilly days Sun and MOn and then right back into 50's middle of next week.

 

This cold shot looked like 5+ days.. Now it's 2 

 

:lol:  

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