CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 I dunno...seems like it's not the nicest look even if it relaxes. If anything, more ridging tries to develop into AK at the end. Maybe not very cold itself later in the 11-15 day, but that is not a warm look at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Yeah eps backed off after being gang busters. Hopefully eps didn't over correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Yeah eps backed off after being gang busters. Hopefully eps didn't over correct. Yep GFS did well with the one cold shot then just a bit below normal 7-9th. After that the eps and Gefs go zonal with abv normal Hghts. Earlier in the week the euro wanted to slap is with two real big cold shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 GEFS have a trough into the east. I would not say it's zonal. If anything, it looks like BDF and coastals could occur on both models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Yep GFS did well with the one cold shot then just a bit below normal 7-9th. After that the eps and Gefs go zonal with abv normal Hghts. Earlier in the week the euro wanted to slap is with two real big cold shots. I would caution that there is a difference between height anomalies and standardized height anomalies. When you standardize it for the time of year, heights are below normal to normal at best through the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 I would caution that there is a difference between height anomalies and standardized height anomalies. When you standardize it for the time of year, heights are below normal to normal at best through the end of the run. And to add to that, I would also look deeper than H5 pretty colors. We had some nice pretty colors at 18,000ft since Friday and where did that leave us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 GFS and Euro have a little snow event for April 5. Euro tracks it further north than the GFS. GFS gives SNJ and NYC a few inches while the Euro gives areas further north into SNE and New England a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 regardless of specifics ...filtered through the user's impressions on both sides of the discussion ... the fact remains that the more dependable operational guidance types have significantly backed off on the cold incursion; and the users are correct about that being both in duration and depth. an important subtlety in the Euro and GFS operational versions: both indicate the -EPO/+PNA hybrid ridge is eroding faster in the last 24 or so hour's worth of model cycles. the shortening of the cold duration and depth is an aspect that actually began yesterday...along with that particular preceding factor. the trouble is, the actual derivatives that the respective agencies (that use the GEFs) did not reflect that aspect very well in the overnight teleconnectors from the night before. this morning's dissemination of those will be interesting... it has been noted by NCEP in the past, however, that often when the more dependable ensemble versions of respective camps coalesce around a common theme, the mean of the remaining ensemble members tends to catch-on; it's kind of an 'operationals leading the teleconnectors' sort of affair. we'll see if this is one. but, this current theme is morphed over that witch's teet look, and though it is not zonal - no, it has lost a lot of the meridional flow structure in lieu of a more progressive look, where no particularly air mass bias would tend to "lock in" as it were. though over all, the means don't exactly look warm for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Dude that's not even some same hr image. lol at comparing surface to 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 lol at comparing surface to 850 Its easy to get distracted from actually reading the maps with all those pretty colors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 NCEP picking up on the weakening -EPO too THE AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST RIDGE-HUDSON BAY TO SOUTHWEST TROUGH PATTERN WEAKENS THIS PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC BEGINS TO ERODE THE WESTERN RIDGE. PER A BRIEFING FROM SUNDAY DAY SHIFT, THERE HAS BEEN A MULTI-DAY TREND SEEN IN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY MORE FROM DAY TO DAY. THE WEAKENING RIDGE ALLOWS THE TRAPPED UNDER LOW UNDER ITS BASE TO GET KICKED EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 I'd keep an eye on April 3rd too...Sunday. Pretty vigorous s/w on some guidance that is diving in and almost spits out an unstable IVT deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 I'd keep an eye on April 3rd too...Sunday. Pretty vigorous s/w on some guidance that is diving in and almost spits out an unstable IVT deal. Sunday night into Monday could be interesting in terms of a cold as well. If we can drop some white stuff and have HP move in at the right time, we could be close to some records. Right now they look safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 I'd keep an eye on April 3rd too...Sunday. Pretty vigorous s/w on some guidance that is diving in and almost spits out an unstable IVT deal. It's funny you mentioned that ... because I was just thinking that if the pattern does indeed verify more in the progressive type, clippers would be preferred over the deeper latitude recurvers... The air mass - at least initially - will be cold; just because the previous deeper transport thing is been damped some doesn't mean there won't be cold thicknesses within reach. interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Sunday night into Monday could be interesting in terms of a cold as well. If we can drop some white stuff and have HP move in at the right time, we could be close to some records. Right now they look safe. A GFS solution would be close...euro, naso much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Let the public hype begin. I can see it now...Heavy, heavy doses of "What ever happen to global warming?" comments heard at office water coolers and barbershops across the nation. A southward plunge of the polar vortex will bring a quick blast of arctic air directed at the Great Lakes and northeastern United States during the first week of April. "The latest indications are the core of the coldest air associated with the polar vortex will track a bit farther north and east, compared to the outlook from last week," according to AccuWeather Long-Range Meteorologist Edward Vallee. The main thrust of cold air will aim at the Great Lakes, New England and the northern part of the mid-Atlantic. http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/subfreezing-highs-to-return-to-northeastern-us-as-polar-vortex-shifts-southward/ar-BBr1X9Q?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=iehp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Some of the runs today seem to like 4/5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Some of the runs today seem to like 4/5. IVT on 4/3 is still hanging around too. Maybe one last set of winter events to track if they can stick around another couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Would be nice to see one last snowfall, even if it is just light stuff for a period. Hopefully not just cold/dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 IVT on 4/3 is still hanging around too. Maybe one last set of winter events to track if they can stick around another couple days. That's a god airmass. I'm hoping we can get something instead of cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Signals growing stronger that somewhere in the GL or NE gets a winter type system centered around 4/5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 Why Are so many people dead on cold and snow all of a sudden? Its not far fetched to see cold and snow in early April, but lots of people act as if snow in April is like an alien invasion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 Why Are so many people dead on cold and snow all of a sudden? Its not far fetched to see cold and snow in early April, but lots of people act as if snow in April is like an alien invasion. Wasn't it April 8 1982 that Boston got a powerful blizzard? Temps feel to 19F I believe. It was a wind blown powder type storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 I just think it's because most everything this year in New England flopped!! Folks are tired of following/looking for ghosts that never materialize. And just like in early November, things have to line up pretty perfect to get a snow event in April.....Certainly not impossible, but gonna take something special for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 Why Are so many people dead on cold and snow all of a sudden? Its not far fetched to see cold and snow in early April, but lots of people act as if snow in April is like an alien invasion.show me some blocking and I would jump in. The quick hitter in April is meh and gone in hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 I just think it's because most everything this year in New England flopped!! Folks are tired of following/looking for ghosts that never materialize. And just like in early November, things have to line up pretty perfect to get a snow event in April.....Certainly not impossible, but gonna take something special for SNE. Some were saying that we were wishcasting talking about an event near the equinox...and it happened. Just because a few of the previous patterns failed, it had no bearing on whether that system was going to fail. That said, I'm fine with others being checked out...they certainly can be and I get it. I just hope that if a threat does materialize that they don't come into the thread and tell us we shouldn't follow it unless it is a 1997 redux...rather just don't post in the threat thread (should one materialize). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 show me some blocking and I would jump in. The quick hitter in April is meh and gone in hrsThey are pretty common and transient but I still enjoy them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 Why Are so many people dead on cold and snow all of a sudden? Its not far fetched to see cold and snow in early April, but lots of people act as if snow in April is like an alien invasion. Seasons in seasons... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 Hopefully we can muster up something better than a 50 mile stripe of 4 inch snows that melts before Wiz gets out of bed. Really would be cool to see a slow moving Noreaster to end a dreadful year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 They are pretty common and transient but I still enjoy themoh I enjoy any snow but lets do this right if we are going to do it. No stats to pad anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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