Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

April Pattern Disco -2016


Damage In Tolland

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

It is a ridiculous cold shot as modeled.  There's only so much sun can do to -20C at H85 if that's what verified.

 

If its sunny you are right it'd be way over but on the flip side the overnight lows would be colder with clear skies.

 

You would have to verify temps at BDL though, because the hilltops would be colder in a nice CAA pattern.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Man what a brutal cold shot that is on the GFS between Day 7-10.

-20C at H85 at BOS/TAN/ORH/BDL with -18C at ACK. Highs in the 20s and lows in the teens for most of SNE verbatim. Up here it's showing a high of 15F and low near zero. That's a classic example of useless cold haha. Windy and frigid on April 4th.

I don't see 18z temps that cold at 2m on the 12z run. I have mid 20s up there and mid/upper 30 in the lower terrain of SNE.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's a shame that we are going to waste this cold air. It would have been nice to get a storm during the first week of April.

 

Purely for interesting Meteorology's sake ...perhaps. 

 

Seasonally?   ...depends on who one is and their personal druthers.  Seasonally there are those of us that understand the futility of any snow in April, and also embrace and enjoy summer season type events enough to look forward to that season's fair and timely onset ... not stolen away by fore-said futility.

 

Buuuut April, year-to-year, is Satan's month if you ask me... more often, colder and more miserable even than that particular angel's own heart, so to be realistic, ...I don't think anyone's bankin' on summery affairs at this time of year just the same.

 

The passage of time is just as inevitable as July is denied in the unconscious mind of the person enjoying a snow storm after April 1... (hell, March 15 in my eyes).  For that, the edge goes back to 'why' ...

 

who cares - or should - in the first week of April.  

 

Man, I hate this f time of year.  Please, pleezy weezy with sugar on top ... gain me a windfall of wealth enough to sustain a second home in a far away land, so I can sans this god-forsaken spring climate and come back when it is certainly safe to do so.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hopefully wrong

 

Not to be fussy about details this far out but the Euro is probably not "Above Normal" in the restoring period of that outlook; rather, that +2 at 850 may be closer to normal once the region gets to ~ April 10 ...certainly shortly there after.  

 

Having said that ... I do think that a significant warm period is plausible as we approach the ides of the month and beyond... The teleconnectors are hugely recovering from the erstwhile -EPO..,.  That index is completely neutralized in the GEFs derivatives (haven't seen any EPS -based solutions), and the nearer term cold dump will also at that time (as hinted now in these operational runs) be staled and departing.  

 

Even though the PNA may be modestly positive, the NAO is also positive and with the EPO flipping signs entirely by April 15 and thus ending cold loading ... odds are heights rise in the east - speculatively... but, could see the result of all that being a much more solid and persistent seasonal recovery -

Link to comment
Share on other sites

EPS is much slower in kicking out the cold.

Persistence this year has been a cold shot followed by a vigorous shortwave that amplifies early, which we end up on the warm side of...

That said, perhaps a very strong -EPO ridge is a sign this pattern is finally breaking down....

Would be too little too late for those in SNE, in terms of wintry weather with the exception of an outside chance.

Wondering if the BDF we saw the other day, was signaling where the cold will hang on longer through first half of April. That would be very good news for the big skiing locations in NNE...

I'm already planning on heading to bretton woods next wknd for some snowboarding.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Persistence this year has been a cold shot followed by a vigorous shortwave that amplifies early, which we end up on the warm side of...

That said, perhaps a very strong -EPO ridge is a sign this pattern is finally breaking down....

Would be too little too late for those in SNE, in terms of wintry weather with the exception of an outside chance.

Wondering if the BDF we saw the other day, was signaling where the cold will hang on longer through first half of April. That would be very good news for the big skiing locations in NNE...

 

 

I don't think it is ... I think it's just a larger mass field sea-saw that take 7 or so days to complete... the other side of which will feature more a permanent seasonal recovery.  Ridge pops up...cold gets dumped S, floods the GL-NE, ridge erodes and dissipates, back to the same old - 

 

The -EPO has been forecast (at least by the GEFs) to be transient, lasting said length give or take.  If it were longer term tendency I'd be more inclined to agree... but as is, it's really just an annoying and temporary reason to fend off an otherwise timely arrival of spring.

 

For these users that hold out for snow 'through early August' ...yeah, maybe it'll snow some on the book ends of it - after all, can't really snow in warm air. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't think it is ... I think it's just a larger mass field sea-saw that take 7 or so days to complete... the other side of which will feature more a permanent seasonal recovery. Ridge pops up...cold gets dumped S, floods the GL-NE, ridge erodes and dissipates, back to the same old -

The -EPO has been forecast (at least by the GEFs) to be transient, lasting said length give or take. If it were longer term tendency I'd be more inclined to agree... but as is, it's really just an annoying and temporary reason to fend off an otherwise timely arrival of spring.

For these users that hold out for snow 'through early August' ...yeah, maybe it'll snow some on the book ends of it - after all, can't really snow in warm air.

Yea, as I stated before chances are--based on persistence and seasonal changes--you'll be correct.

However, the staying power of the low level cold in the face of the previous system was pretty damn impressive. We haven't seen that all year. There's also substantial snowpack in Quebec and Maine. A good portion of southern Quebec and NNE looks to cash in again on Tuesday. That should also help tip the scales in favor of the cold wanting to stick around in adjacent locales, even in the face of approaching warm fronts...

I'm looking at this in the context of the outcome of the previous system through the pattern setting up next wknd...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yea. I'm also finding it odd that the peak warmth this week is modeled to coincide with the apex of the -EPO ridge. Looks to me like that warmth is at risk, much like it was last week, and we'd be open for a big Canadian high to build in mid week and back door, after the Monday/Tuesday system moves through.

Looks like a very chaotic UL flow on wed/thurs. Wouldn't be surprised to see the sensible weather change quite a bit as we approach that time frame.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Purely for interesting Meteorology's sake ...perhaps.

Seasonally? ...depends on who one is and their personal druthers. Seasonally there are those of us that understand the futility of any snow in April, and also embrace and enjoy summer season type events enough to look forward to that season's fair and timely onset ... not stolen away by fore-said futility.

Buuuut April, year-to-year, is Satan's month if you ask me... more often, colder and more miserable even than that particular angel's own heart, so to be realistic, ...I don't think anyone's bankin' on summery affairs at this time of year just the same.

The passage of time is just as inevitable as July is denied in the unconscious mind of the person enjoying a snow storm after April 1... (hell, March 15 in my eyes). For that, the edge goes back to 'why' ...

who cares - or should - in the first week of April.

Man, I hate this f time of year. Please, pleezy weezy with sugar on top ... gain me a windfall of wealth enough to sustain a second home in a far away land, so I can sans this god-forsaken spring climate and come back when it is certainly safe to do so.

I think if a snow event popped up anyone with any meteorological interest would be pulled back in regardless of whether you like the summer or not.

I don't get these posts sometimes but also know shiznit is boring as f right now so it's fun to wander into the mind of a snow lover?

I don't think it's just snow, like in late September it's sort of like "I wish we could steal one more severe event before summer is slammed shut."

But the bottom line is that for the next month still, a snowstorm is about the most exciting thing meteorologically that could happen...whether you want it or not. There's not much other options for exciting weather this time of year so why not look for the blue bomb?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think if a snow event popped up anyone with any meteorological interest would be pulled back in regardless of whether you like the summer or not.

I don't get these posts sometimes but also know shiznit is boring as f right now so it's fun to wander into the mind of a snow lover?

I don't think it's just snow, like in late September it's sort of like "I wish we could steal one more severe event before summer is slammed shut."

But the bottom line is that for the next month still, a snowstorm is about the most exciting thing meteorologically that could happen...whether you want it or not. There's not much other options for exciting weather this time of year so why not look for the blue bomb?

 

and truth be told ... really you're good to go right through much of April. 

 

I know it sounds '...old man in a rocking chair' but there is a reason why a million years of climo instructs leaves don't come out on trees around here until after the 15th of April - in general ;)  and it obviously later than that up your way.  

 

granted there are extreme years where early and often warmth prompted budding unusually early, but over the long hull green up is the 2nd the 3rd week of April most years.  

 

it's really about probability curve sloped negatively, and as every day goes by you lose some if its snow that draws one into this maddening hobby.  

 

contrasting in Autumn ... our fleeting chances at a tropical season at least pre-occupies and limits the stress of waiting out the doldrums to ~ one half the time spent in the schits of event dearth-dom.    

 

I'll tell ya, it's why i like my winters front-end loaded.. Think about it for a moment, by October 1 you're talking March 11 sun angle - why not?   ..oh, right - that stupid problem with atmospheric memory and seasonal lag.  darn!   

 

But some years ...albeit rare, the which of November comes early.  the best year for that i can recall was the 1995 autumn.  it was gradient-like, and as near-by as NYC was still on the equatorial side of the mean polar boundary, granted; but while that was happening, up at UML at college we are into our 2nd sleet/snow storm prior to T-Giving, with no 'tweener melting, either.  right into Xmass baby!  then of course, as if we deserved anything more, we frosted over with that megalopolis blizzard on January 9.  

 

by the time the thaw hit that year, personally i was duly sated in my winter entitlement and no longer cared ... ha! man, that year was pure winter crapulence -

 

I think of that year?  and this one is perfectly opposite that.  

 

hey, check out the NAM FRH grid up at AFA ...  that's like gusting to 55 mph in a foot of snow 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...