Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

April Pattern Disco -2016


Damage In Tolland

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Yeah, NAM would have some wild 35 knot gusts in SNE.

BOTH NAM AND GFS INDICATE FAIRLY STEEP LOW

LEVEL LAPSE RATES INITIALLY SUPPORTING WIND GUSTS UP 50 MPH THU AFTN

PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. GFS EVEN STRONGER. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS

CLOSELY AS THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF HIGH WIND CRITERIA /50KT-

58MPH/ BEING MET

Link to comment
Share on other sites

They talking HWW not whimpy advisory

 

Because this wimpy advisory is working out so well right now.

 

I know they'll get every twig down today, but so far I've only seen PK WNDs hit 40 knots at ORH and BDL, one hour each. That's not really screaming widespread advisory to me.

 

 

As for Thursday, I'd really like to see a stronger signal than just the GFS touting HWW criteria. NAEFS hardly cracking a 2 SD LLJ.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Heh, I know that guy...

 

Let the public hype begin.  I can see it now...Heavy, heavy doses of "What ever happen to global warming?"  comments heard at office water coolers and barbershops across the nation.  

 

http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/subfreezing-highs-to-return-to-northeastern-us-as-polar-vortex-shifts-southward/ar-BBr1X9Q?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=iehp

Link to comment
Share on other sites

But in all seriousness, I'm not on here much anymore (though apparently my tweets get talked about ocassionally?)  :lol:

 

Twitter's 140 characters certainly make the tweets lose their value sometimes- tough to talk LR wx with that much room. Anyways, does look like once that -EPO recovers, looks like the bigger key to end the month is western ridging and h5 shenanigans up near AK and the Aleutians. Despite ECMWF weeklies pointing warm, seeing ridging in western Canada doesn't exactly make me excited for extreme warmth...

 

Guess overall I like normal or above post 4/15.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

But in all seriousness, I'm not on here much anymore (though apparently my tweets get talked about ocassionally?)  :lol:

 

Twitter's 140 characters certainly make the tweets lose their value sometimes- tough to talk LR wx with that much room. Anyways, does look like once that -EPO recovers, looks like the bigger key to end the month is western ridging and h5 shenanigans up near AK and the Aleutians. Despite ECMWF weeklies pointing warm, seeing ridging in western Canada doesn't exactly make me excited for extreme warmth...

 

Guess overall I like normal or above post 4/15.

 

I pretty much agree. The weeklies had some pretty orange colors at 500mb, but not overwhelmingly so. Couple that will cold in SE Quebec....I just don't see a lot of prolonged warmth week 3 and 4. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

But in all seriousness, I'm not on here much anymore (though apparently my tweets get talked about ocassionally?) :lol:

Twitter's 140 characters certainly make the tweets lose their value sometimes- tough to talk LR wx with that much room. Anyways, does look like once that -EPO recovers, looks like the bigger key to end the month is western ridging and h5 shenanigans up near AK and the Aleutians. Despite ECMWF weeklies pointing warm, seeing ridging in western Canada doesn't exactly make me excited for extreme warmth...

Guess overall I like normal or above post 4/15.

hey Ed, why did you tweet compare Euro 850 to GFS surface temps at different times to make a point about differences in cold. Just wondering as you usually make great points in tweets
Link to comment
Share on other sites

hey Ed, why did you tweet compare Euro 850 to GFS surface temps at different times to make a point about differences in cold. Just wondering as you usually make great points in tweets

Hey Steve! I have been told to not post "premium" ECMWF data on social media so I obliged w/ 24h maps from TropicalTidbits (which doesn't have free EPS 2mT anoms). Whole different topic for a different day...

 

They were different, but the point I was making was that the EPS was less amped and quicker to pivot out the cool down versus GEFS yesterday. 140 characters sucks sometimes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I pretty much agree. The weeklies had some pretty orange colors at 500mb, but not overwhelmingly so. Couple that will cold in SE Quebec....I just don't see a lot of prolonged warmth week 3 and 4. 

Yeah, certainly warmer than wks 1-2, but not the warmth I was honestly expecting for April. Do think warmth builds in the Plains wks 3-4. Question is does it slingshot east closer to 5/1 or get  knocked back with lower heights in Quebec?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Putting aside the biased and skewed views based on the utter futility of the season, you have to like the look going forward for some late-season mischief. Whether it's a coating or sonething more significant is anyone's guess but I think accumulating snowfall is a decent possibility during the April 3 - 10 period. Some places may even coat it up with the influx of Arctic air late Saturday night and early Sunday, especially in the higher terrain

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Putting aside the biased and skewed views based on the utter futility of the season, you have to like the look going forward for some late-season mischief. Whether it's a coating or sonething more significant is anyone's guess but I think accumulating snowfall is a decent possibility during the April 3 - 10 period. Some places may even coat it up with the influx of Arctic air late Saturday night and early Sunday, especially in the higher terrain

Noreaster please or its tits on a bull
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...