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March 23-24 System


RyanDe680

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Seasonal trends for the win.

 

 

Not a big fan of "seasonal trends" argument to be honest, especially when we're talking about individual storms and not larger scale pattern related things.  As an example, winter 14-15 was not doing well until the Feb 1 storm.  Regardless of changes in surface low intensity from here on out, band of 1-2 feet is nearly a lock. 

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Not a big fan of "seasonal trends" argument to be honest, especially when we're talking about individual storms and not larger scale pattern related things.  As an example, winter 14-15 was not doing well until the Feb 1 storm.  Regardless of changes in surface low intensity from here on out, band of 1-2 feet is nearly a lock. 

 

 

i've had multiple storms trend north AND south of me this winter at this range, it's a weak talking point for sure

 

i think march 23/24 and model consensus supports north

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i've had multiple storms trend north AND south of me this winter at this range, it's a weak talking point for sure

 

i think march 23/24 and model consensus supports north

 

 

If by some chance the ECMWF doesn't shift north on the 12z run, it's going to be hard to discount even without full upper air sampling yet, and especially if its backed up by its ensembles.  So far the ensembles have been backing up the southern track.  

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If by some chance the ECMWF doesn't shift north on the 12z run, it's going to be hard to discount even without full upper air sampling yet, and especially if its backed up by its ensembles.  So far the ensembles have been backing up the southern track.  

 

it's going to

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Not a big fan of "seasonal trends" argument to be honest, especially when we're talking about individual storms and not larger scale pattern related things.  As an example, winter 14-15 was not doing well until the Feb 1 storm.  Regardless of changes in surface low intensity from here on out, band of 1-2 feet is nearly a lock. 

Not a strong argument at all, but a season that has barely cracked 20" has left me bitter. haha

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Just ran BUFKIT for the 12Z NAM at Kitchener-Waterloo and we would be looking at nearly 22 hours of freezing rain, on about 0.6" liquid.

 

YYZ proper would have more a mix of SN, PL and ZR throughout the event.

 

I really hope for your sake, that doesn't verify.

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I really hope for your sake, that doesn't verify.

It would suck but I'll admit I'm a bit of a ZR junkie so would enjoy it for the meteorological significance. Obviously not going to cheer it on though. Set up reeks of freezing rain somewhere. Still managed about 6mm of freezing rain with the last system and there was virtually no arctic high compared to this time around.

If someone has a Euro freezing rain map I would love to see it. (Geos?? ;))

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It would suck but I'll admit I'm a bit of a ZR junkie so would enjoy it for the meteorological significance. Obviously not going to cheer it on though. Set up reeks of freezing rain somewhere though. Still managed about 6mm of freezing rain with the last system and there was virtually no arctic high compared to this system.

If someone has a Euro freezing rain map I would love to see it.

Looking at the NAM, Euro, and GEM combined, it is quite evident our area and into the GTA could be in for a significant ice event.  Setup is really quite incredible.  And yes, the last event I was just east of Belwood Lake (Fergus) and got 2cm ice accretion and quite a lot of damage which would have been far worse if there was more wind.  That event was much more localized because it was heavily dependent on topography, and this event looks like it could be a more widespread, high-impact ice event...

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It would suck but I'll admit I'm a bit of a ZR junkie so would enjoy it for the meteorological significance. Obviously not going to cheer it on though. Set up reeks of freezing rain somewhere. Still managed about 6mm of freezing rain with the last system and there was virtually no arctic high compared to this time around.

If someone has a Euro freezing rain map I would love to see it. (Geos?? ;))

 

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As I feared and expected, the euro is slowly backing northward.  The front has made less southward progress each of the last two runs.  It's not going to come back south, so good luck to those farther north.  Climatology is very much against areas south of northern Iowa this late in the season.  Big snows are quite rare.

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Hasn't been a single storm this winter that Milwaukee hasn't sweated some kind of cluster f with models and tracks. O well it's not like we didn't know how this would end early..just sit back and enjoy from afar once again. Hopefully the big totals actually can verify for once to the north.

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