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March 23-24 System

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Basically right over me on Wednesday afternoon. Could see it try to wobble north as the sfc low approaches.

 

Yeah it does once it approaches the MS River.

 

Even tighter gradient across northern IL now.

 

namconus_T2m_ncus_20.png

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GEOS doesnt want you to get any snow

 

lol.  Geos is a good guy. I could honestly care less about the snow. I really just want to see the new and improved Euro bust hard core. 

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lol.  Geos is a good guy. I could honestly care less about the snow. I really just want to see the new and improved Euro bust hard core. 

Yes GEOS works hard... 4km NAM goes to town in the metro

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I am dumber than a box a rocks when it comes to weather, but them putting that watch out that earlier was even beyond my level of stupid

What is GRR to do?

If they believe this.

 

acckucherasnowmw.png

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This could(and probably will) end up being pretty embarrassing for GRR calling for 8+ of snow 2 days before and 0" and rain less than a day before the storm. That will throw people for a loop should the GFS and NAM win out vs the EURO.

 

Edit: looks like GRR adjusted the watch to 6+.

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I'm getting more excited about thunderstorms than snow with this one.

I 100% agree with you. NAM has CAPE pushing 1k into parts of Illinois. Just excited at the chance to get some more lightning. 

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I'm getting more excited about thunderstorms than snow with this one.

 

With luck you could have some thunder sleet going on. 

Did you get that in December?

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I 100% agree with you. NAM has CAPE pushing 1k into parts of Illinois. Just excited at the chance to get some more lightning. 

 

 

4km shows the storm development in IL in the 9z-12z timeframe on Thursday.

 

 

post-14-0-79772000-1458615789_thumb.png

 

 

post-14-0-68218900-1458615795_thumb.png

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This could(and probably will) end up being pretty embarrassing for GRR calling for 8+ of snow 2 days before and 0" and rain less than a day before the storm. That will throw people for a loop should the GFS and NAM win out vs the EURO.

Edit: looks like GRR adjusted the watch to 6+.

But in the end most of the watch would be justified and upgraded based on the freezing rain amounts the nam is putting out.

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4km NAM stalls the front in northern Cook County.

FWIW it didn't handle the 2.29 front very well.

sfctmw.png

I've been following that all along. Seems to give clues as to how much snow and where. You can see clear cut where snow isn't even a possibility.

Following the dews too could spell some imbedded storms. If cape values get up there could be a fun event

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I've been following that all along. Seems to give clues as to how much snow and where. You can see clear cut where snow isn't even a possibility.

 

Same here.

I've been watching where the front has to get to get some snow here and of course that is at least Kankakee, preferably Bloomington. Of course that is the EURO and not far behind the GEM.

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Wow. You guys are way too quick to judge holy crap. Why all the hate with GRR? The point of a watch isto get the word out on possible inclement weather.

They had good reasoning for putting it out and last nights AFD by DTX said they were going to put one out for their Monday Afternoon Package.

 

Point is there is a real chance at some bad weather, people need to know about it. Especially since tomorrow is going to be 60. Might it not happen well duh, thats why it's a watch and not a warning.

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One thing to note about the NAM/4km NAM is that they only get mid 50s surface dews up to I-80 at best, so the 500-1000 J/kg CAPE being advertised is occurring in a relatively low dewpoint environment...and it shouldn't be that difficult for mid 50s dews to reach up somewhere into northern IL/IN given the dynamics/low level jet with this system. 

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Wow. You guys are way too quick to judge holy crap. Why all the hate with GRR? The point of a watch isto get the word out on possible inclement weather.

They had good reasoning for putting it out and last nights AFD by DTX said they were going to put one out for their Monday Afternoon Package.

Point is there is a real chance at some bad weather, people need to know about it. Especially since tomorrow is going to be 60. Might it not happen well duh, thats why it's a watch and not a warning.

No matter on how you try to spin it. It was and will likely be the worst forecast in the history of forecasting. There was NO reason to issue a watch 72 hours before the storm in Michigan. This is not Arkansas. Lol. We can handle snow.

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GFS is a little bit south so far. 

 

Just north of MCI to GYY now. Ice for Madison and SW WI. 

 

prateptypemw.png

 

acckucherasnowmw.png

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No matter on how you try to spin it. It was and will likely be the worst forecast in the history of forecasting. There was NO reason to issue a watch 72 hours before the storm in Michigan. This is not Arkansas. Lol. We can handle snow.

It seems to me that 72 hours is beyond their time-window criteria for winter storm watches. Isn't it usually 48 hours? Honestly, the exact rules on timing of watches/warnings/advisories is confusing to me.

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It seems to me that 72 hours is beyond their time-window criteria for winter storm watches. Isn't it usually 48 hours? Honestly, the exact rules on timing of watches/warnings/advisories is confusing to me.

Not sure on that, but they issued the watch ~60 hrs before the event so it's not too bad, earlier than normal but this could be a sneaky event for people.

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Looks like the GEM will follow the GFS track from St. Joe, MO.

 

997mb over Grundy, County at 60 hours.

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GFS is a little bit south so far. 

 

Just north of MCI to GYY now. Ice for Madison and SW WI. 

 

prateptypemw.png

 

acckucherasnowmw.png

Seriously...27 inches...  

The check out lady at Menards was wondering why i was buying a shovel maybe 2 weeks ago and i said winter isn't done yet.  She laughed...  she'll be laughing now when her car is buried in 20 inches of concrete mixer.

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The GFS definitely went south with the track of the low on this run. Hopefully it is the start of it going in a southerly direction. Instead of going through Chicago and Grand Rapids, it now goes through Gary and Lansing. Baby steps. :P

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Not sure on that, but they issued the watch ~60 hrs before the event so it's not too bad, earlier than normal but this could be a sneaky event for people.

Issuing a watch far out is not a terrible thing in and of itself, I think the problem is issuing one beyond even 60 hours in a situation where only one set of guidance supports the scenario the watch was issued for. As I had responded to a question about typical watch issuance protocol, extended lead time watches beyond 48 hours are reserved commonly for very high confidence scenarios. This would mean very good agreement across the guidance and other supporting factors in observations.

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Not sure on that, but they issued the watch ~60 hrs before the event so it's not too bad, earlier than normal but this could be a sneaky event for people.

Yeah... a sneaky rain which only serves to lessen public confidence in general regarding the accuracy of the forecast.

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Seriously...27 inches...  

The check out lady at Menards was wondering why i was buying a shovel maybe 2 weeks ago and i said winter isn't done yet.  She laughed...  she'll be laughing now when her car is buried in 20 inches of concrete mixer.

 

Yeah she's going to regret laughing about that shovel! 

 

The models aren't backing off these 2' amounts.

 

1000mb GEM low over BUF at 72 hours.

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Issuing a watch far out is not a terrible thing in and of itself, I think the problem is issuing one beyond even 60 hours in a situation where only one set of guidance supports the scenario the watch was issued for. As I had responded to a question about typical watch issuance protocol, extended lead time watches beyond 48 hours are reserved commonly for very high confidence scenarios. This would mean very good agreement across the guidance and other supporting factors in observations.

 

 

RC, any quick thoughts on convective prospects Thursday morning?  Just checked the GFS and it has less CAPE than the NAM/4 km NAM as is often the case.   

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