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March 23-24 System


RyanDe680

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That'd be a bullseye for my backyard. Would be brutal here, many above-ground lines around.

 

Although it isn't the most likely scenario ATM(even half these amounts would be damaging), it shows what can happen if the low tracks a little further south than modelled. 

 

Nonetheless, this looks overdone. Accretion rate should be reduced during the day under sfc temps near 0c.

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Oh my G....

 

Really hoping that doesn't verify.

 

Ice gets going at 6z it looks like and continues into the night. 

 

---

 

Regarding the front, it looks like it is over 2 1/2 hours ahead of the EURO schedule as it approaches downtown Chicago. Down to 40°.

 

post-7-0-38452100-1458701988.jpg

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You swallowed the hook when GRR reeled you in huh?

Look on the bright side we are only 8 months away from your first real snowfall of the season :lol:

No...I fell for yet another Euro run! I thought it was silly for GRR to issue so early.

But all week I have been hesitant about falling for any snow. It is a bitter pill to swallow seeing the heavy snow probably missing me not far to the north, while all winter it missed not far to the southeast. My area may end up being one of the least snowy in MI for this winter.

Should I fall for it again and say that the most recent NAM runs and RAP look better for a several inches of snow? Lol

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0z RGEM looking more bullish as well.

 

Yeah, scary stuff. We were able to accrete ice fairly efficiently during the April 2003 storm during the daylight hours, but temps were well below freezing. Marginal temps here may save us from something truly devastating.

 

edit: that is saved at least along the Lk Ontario shoreline. E and NW of the city might still be crippled.

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Yeah, scary stuff. We were able to accrete ice fairly efficiently during the April 2003 storm during the daylight hours, but temps were well below freezing. Marginal temps here may save us from something truly devastating.

The variability in terms of p-type may help as well. The RGEM has quite a bit of SN/PL, before ZR takes over by 14z, continuing until 20-22z.

 

post-7879-0-91808800-1458703663_thumb.pn

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Yeah, scary stuff. We were able to accrete ice fairly efficiently during the April 2003 storm during the daylight hours, but temps were well below freezing. Marginal temps here may save us from something truly devastating.

 

edit: that is saved at least along the Lk Ontario shoreline. E and NW of the city might still be crippled.

 

 

Accretion may not be as efficient as 2003 but looks like there's a feed of upper 20s/near 30 dews throughout most of it, so it may still get pretty nasty for anybody that's able to maintain zr for a prolonged period.

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Didn't your area over toward GTA have a very bad ice storm recently too. I want to say a couple Christmases ago.

 

Yeah we did back in December 2013, just before Christmas. Alot of people in the region were without power, with some up to a week. It was very scenic the next morning, but it left behind a huge mess.

 

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/toronto-ice-storm-2013-photos-from-the-gtas-winter-nightmare

 

Temperatures and thermals are more marginal with this storm than that storm, so hopefully it ain't as bad as December 2013. 

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Didn't your area over toward GTA have a very bad ice storm recently too. I want to say a couple Christmases ago.

Now that was a storm! The sound of transformers and power lines blowing all day,and the snaps of trees falling apart is something I'll never forget. We weren't as devastated out this way as the GTA, but I believe 4,000-6,000 trees were destroyed in my area. The city was removing damaged trees for at least a year after. My parent had to wait about 11 months to get one removed.

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Front making progress past Joliet now.

 

EURO set up the F-Gen band just north of Milwaukee in the late morning. 

 

La Crosse to Manitowoc, Green Bay getting smoked.

 

Deformation band more pronounced on this run. Gets going in N IL around 6pm.

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