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March 23-24 System


RyanDe680

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Lake enhancement....

 

And then another snowstorm hits the same areas and slightly south of the first one exactly 7 days from now!

 

Solid 30" of snow from southwest of Des Moines to the Thumb of MI, peaking at close to 40" over Racine and Milwaukee. 

Them's fightin' words right there. 

 

I can kind of get into the idea of a late season big dog, but I have a feeling it will just end up mostly cold rain around here. 

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I think this sad winter broke Geos. Dude, has gone delusional.

 

Not delusional. I don't think... lol  :lol:

A third of that would be really impressive for the last 7 days of March, let alone most of it.

Both systems for anyone wondering.

 

And it had the second system last night in the same area as the GFS was hitting on the 12z run.

 

post-7-0-96332600-1458501678.png

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Euro does have surface temps well below freezing during much of the event, generally in the 28-31 range north of I-80 in IL.  You could argue that's feasible given strong CAA below 850mb.  Above that though a lingering warm layer maintained by weak WAA will keep precip liquid.  If the Euro isn't overdoing surface/near surface CAA, then I could see a decent zone of icing or sleet working out over a fairly decent corridor.  Something to watch anyway.  

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Even if the second system doesn't work out and if this first system is half of those amounts, it will be probably be a top 5 late season storm for Milwaukee. 

If the EURO doesn't move tonight, going to have to think about planning for heavy snow this week.

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Not delusional. I don't think... lol  :lol:

A third of that would be really impressive for the last 7 days of March, let alone most of it.

Both systems for anyone wondering.

 

And it had the second system last night in the same area as the GFS was hitting on the 12z run.

 

post-7-0-96332600-1458501678.png

Yeaaaaahh  24-27" for Adams County and Morgan County Colorado. I never get a chance to look at Euro snow totals as a map. So I'm excited about this.

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GEFS look mostly clustered around the op.  A few farther south but not as far south as the op Euro.  Euro seems like it has been doing pretty well lately so can it hold this track.

 

It's so hard to go against the Euro.  It can be off sometimes though, like we've seen a few times this season with a few storms.  However it seems to sniff out trends before other models catch on.  Just with this past event, it was the slowest by a long shot, and sure enough the storm ended up being even slower than what the Euro had been forecasting.  

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Yeaaaaahh  24-27" for Adams County and Morgan County Colorado. I never get a chance to look at Euro snow totals as a map. So I'm excited about this.

 

Looks like a solid 20" in Fort Collins. Near 3' over eastern Arapahoe, and Elbert County, CO.

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GEFS look mostly clustered around the op. A few farther south but not as far south as the op Euro. Euro seems like it has been doing pretty well lately so can it hold this track.

FWIW, different region and all, but the upgraded ECMWF and EPS did not perform well with the current east coast storm from a similar lead time out to this event.
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EURO has Chicago in the mid to upper 50s on Tuesday and then by midnight in the mid to upper 30s. 

Like the leap day situation.

 

Front really drives south into SPI to LAF at 78 hours and holds there until 93 hours. GFS is along the state line here. 200 miles difference.

I would side with the front going down to Kankakee County at least. 

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All the NWS offices say one or all of the models will likely have significant changes over the next few runs. So let's see what happens I guess.

Did you read all of the afternoon discos?? Not all of them said that.

Interesting comment from MPX about the 12z GFS run. The upper air data and aircraft data were not included due to the initialization issues. That run remained very similar to previous runs. They also commented on how several systems this winter have trended south only to come back north. They're favoring the GFS and S MN for a good hit.

18z GFS bumped north again. So did the 18z NAM. Two camps (north vs south) gonna duke it out for another day or two it appears.

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Did you read all of the afternoon discos?? Not all of them said that.

Interesting comment from MPX about the 12z GFS run. The upper air data and aircraft data were not included due to the initialization issues. That run remained very similar to previous runs. They also commented on how several systems this winter have trended south only to come back north. They're favoring the GFS and S MN for a good hit.

18z GFS bumped north again. So did the 18z NAM. Two camps (north vs south) gonna duke it out for another day or two it appears.

Except it's been the other way around more often than not.

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