WeatherX Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 What does para gfs show? Yay or nay See for yourself > http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 GFS para is well NW of Op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 OP PARA The differences are pretty substantial resulting in the para pulling the LP closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 GFS para is well NW of Op Check the last several runs. It's been consistent WRT with this storm, no major swings like the current OP GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Twc has me at 5 ro 9 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 SREFs?.... Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 As we get closer, and the details of the surface low are hammered in more, I fully expect the precip shield to expand quite a bit since the 13km ECMWF has had some noticeable problems during its beta phase with condensing precip when its in the form of convection/in the presence of a rapidly deepening surface low. Have to look at 300mb divergence maps and 100-700mb RH maps later tomorrow to determine just how far west things will actually come. For example, the 18z JMA has a pretty expansive, developing precip shield down south when compared to the NAM/GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Nam would be a big hit past 84 hours. Nothing like the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 GFS is west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 0z GFS grazes the coast. West of 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 West, but suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Gfs still is not where we want it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Gfs still is not where we want it yes we want it there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 CMC has 2 lows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 And here we go again with bad trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 And here we go again with bad trends. GFS was west so it wasnt bad. GGEM didnt know what it was doing. It showed 2 lows and tried to go back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 GFS was west so it wasnt bad. GGEM didnt know what it was doing. It showed 2 lows and tried to go back west.As long as the ECMWF and the EPS hold serve, I'll go with them for now. Also, the GEFS and GEPS are important to see the spread at this timeframe. The GFS OP could be at the eastern end of its ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Looks like 2-4 inches on the GGEM and GFS for the metro area on tonights runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 UKIE is amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Ukie looks real good again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 The Ukie continues to be west of the gfs/gem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 GEFS looks west of the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 There is a huge lean of GEFS members tucked in S of LI. Many of them are in the mid 990s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 0z GEPS is west of the 12z GEPS and 0z op run. Looks like the low ends up over the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Lets hope we get a good Euro solution in 30 mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Big Picture Loop look at that moisture feed thru the gulf.....JUICY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Yea. This pic is almost like porn...lol. Euro is out to hour 60...few more mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Still a while before things unfold, but to have this kind of storm potential this late in the season is pretty damn impressive. Once in 20/25 years type stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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