Historic 2000's Snows Favoring Coast Over Interior

[bluewave]

Looks like the record 2000's blocking patterns have shifted the snowstorm tracks

more SE to favor the coast over the interior. This 16 year shift occurred around

the 2000-2001 season. The previous 16 years just about always featured heavier

snows over the interior. Notice how BNL out in Suffolk regularly began to surpass

Scranton, PA in seasonal snowfall at this time. The prior 16 seasons when weaker

blocking prevailed featured AVP in the lead almost every year.

 

BNL vs AVP seasonal snowfall

 

https://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlySnowfall.htm

 

http://www.weather.gov/bgm/climateAVPAnnualTotals

 

.............BNL.....AVP

84-85...23.8....35.3

85-86...19.6....49.3

86-87....35.5...47.5

87-88....22.0...45.7

88-89....17.9.....7.3....BNL higher

89-90....26.5....37.3

90-91....17.5....31.3

91-92....16.0....24.5

92-93....27.0....60.3

93-94....55.0...90.4

94-95.....6.5....25.0

95-96....90.7...92.8...near tie

96-97....18.0...37.5

97-98......4.5...40.6

98-99....23.0...27.6

99-00...14.0....36.1

00-01....51.2...49.8...BNL higher

01-02......5.5...30.1

02-03....62.1...81.3

03-04....60.2..16.5....BNL higher

04-05....78.5...15.4...BNL higher

05-06....30.5...10.9...BNL higher

06-07.......9.5...49.1

07-08.....11.5...42.2

08-09.....43.0...31.4...BNL higher

09-10.....67.8...48.5...BNL higher

10-11.....61.5...55.4...BNL higher

11-12.......5.5...18.5

12-13.....51.8...33.9...BNL higher

13-14....57.5....58.7...near tie

14-15....62.2....49.4...BNL higher

15-16....34.1....13.3...BNL higher through 3/15

 

http://24.237.90.116/rankings.php

[WarrenCtyWx]

I'm almost certain that AVP got more snow in 03-04, 04-05 and 05-06.

[Rjay]

Upton disagrees

[Keith O]

Climate change in all its glory! This trend is beyond luck or random chance and has gone through all ENSO phases. Great comparison that really drives the growing disparity home.

[IrishRob17]

Looks like the record 2000's blocking patterns have shifted the snowstorm tracks

more SE to favor the coast over the interior. This 16 year shift occurred around

the 2000-2001 season. The previous 16 years just about always featured heavier

snows over the interior. Notice how BNL out in Suffolk regularly began to surpass

Scranton, PA in seasonal snowfall at this time. The prior 16 seasons when weaker

blocking prevailed featured AVP in the lead almost every year.

 

BNL vs AVP seasonal snowfall

 

https://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlySnowfall.htm

 

http://www.weather.gov/bgm/climateAVPAnnualTotals

 

.............BNL.....AVP

84-85...23.8....35.3

85-86...19.6....49.3

86-87....35.5...47.5

87-88....22.0...45.7

88-89....17.9.....7.3....BNL higher

89-90....26.5....37.3

90-91....17.5....31.3

91-92....16.0....24.5

92-93....27.0....60.3

93-94....55.0...90.4

94-95.....6.5....25.0

95-96....90.7...92.8...near tie

96-97....18.0...37.5

97-98......4.5...40.6

98-99....23.0...27.6

99-00...14.0....36.1

00-01....51.2...49.8...BNL higher

01-02......5.5...30.1

02-03....62.1...81.3

03-04....60.2..16.5....BNL higher

04-05....78.5...15.4...BNL higher

05-06....30.5...10.9...BNL higher

06-07.......9.5...49.1

07-08.....11.5...42.2

08-09.....43.0...31.4...BNL higher

09-10.....67.8...48.5...BNL higher

10-11.....61.5...55.4...BNL higher

11-12.......5.5...18.5

12-13.....51.8...33.9...BNL higher

13-14....57.5....58.7...near tie

14-15....62.2....49.4...BNL higher

15-16....34.1....13.3...BNL higher through 3/15

I don't disagree that there appears to be a shift but it needs much more research, for example I included Albany's totals in your chart below.

 

BNL vs AVP vs ALY seasonal snowfall

 

https://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlySnowfall.htm

 

http://www.weather.gov/bgm/climateAVPAnnualTotals

 

http://www.weather.gov/media/aly/Climate/ALY_Seasonal_Snowfall_Totals.pdf

 

.............BNL.....AVP.....ALY

84-85...23.8....35.3.....41.3

85-86...19.6....49.3.....62.5

86-87....35.5...47.5.....80.6

87-88....22.0...45.7.....76.7

88-89....17.9.....7.3.....19.0

89-90....26.5....37.3....57.9

90-91....17.5....31.3....28.7

91-92....16.0....24.5....30.7

92-93....27.0....60.3....94.2

93-94....55.0...90.4.....88.1

94-95.....6.5....25.0.....30.9

95-96....90.7...92.8.....86.5  BNL higher

96-97....18.0...37.5.....66.6

97-98......4.5...40.6.....52.3

98-99....23.0...27.6.....44.1

99-00...14.0....36.1.....62.1

00-01....51.2...49.8.....77.1

01-02......5.5...30.1.....47.4

02-03....62.1...81.3....105.4

03-04....60.2..16.5......65.1

04-05....78.5...15.4.....75.9 BNL higher

05-06....30.5...10.9.....30.2 near tie

06-07.......9.5...49.1.....45.9

07-08.....11.5...42.2.....61.1

08-09.....43.0...31.4.....52.6 

09-10.....67.8...48.5.....45.4 BNL higher

10-11.....61.5...55.4.....87.2 

11-12.......5.5...18.5.....23.3

12-13.....51.8...33.9.....51.4 near tie

13-14....57.5....58.7.....73.5

14-15....62.2....49.4.....75.9

15-16....34.1....13.3.....10.3 BNL higher through 3/15

[ag3]

 

I don't disagree that there appears to be a shift but it needs much more research, for example I included Albany's totals in your chart below.

 

BNL vs AVP vs ALY seasonal snowfall

 

https://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlySnowfall.htm

 

http://www.weather.gov/bgm/climateAVPAnnualTotals

 

http://www.weather.gov/media/aly/Climate/ALY_Seasonal_Snowfall_Totals.pdf

 

.............BNL.....AVP.....ALY

84-85...23.8....35.3.....41.3

85-86...19.6....49.3.....62.5

86-87....35.5...47.5.....80.6

87-88....22.0...45.7.....76.7

88-89....17.9.....7.3.....19.0

89-90....26.5....37.3....57.9

90-91....17.5....31.3....28.7

91-92....16.0....24.5....30.7

92-93....27.0....60.3....94.2

93-94....55.0...90.4.....88.1

94-95.....6.5....25.0.....30.9

95-96....90.7...92.8.....86.5  BNL higher

96-97....18.0...37.5.....66.6

97-98......4.5...40.6.....52.3

98-99....23.0...27.6.....44.1

99-00...14.0....36.1.....62.1

00-01....51.2...49.8.....77.1

01-02......5.5...30.1.....47.4

02-03....62.1...81.3....105.4

03-04....60.2..16.5......65.1

04-05....78.5...15.4.....75.9 BNL higher

05-06....30.5...10.9.....30.2 near tie

06-07.......9.5...49.1.....45.9

07-08.....11.5...42.2.....61.1

08-09.....43.0...31.4.....52.6 

09-10.....67.8...48.5.....45.4 BNL higher

10-11.....61.5...55.4.....87.2 

11-12.......5.5...18.5.....23.3

12-13.....51.8...33.9.....51.4 near tie

13-14....57.5....58.7.....73.5

14-15....62.2....49.4.....75.9

15-16....34.1....13.3.....10.3 BNL higher through 3/15

 

 

Albany is further north by a good amount.

[IrishRob17]

Albany is further north by a good amount.

Albany averages about 13" more in a season than Scranton too.

[bluewave]

Albany averages about 13" more in a season than Scranton too.

 

Yeah, I was trying to keep it in the I-78  to I-84 corridor W to WNW of BNL on a similar latitude band.

[ag3]

Yeah, I was trying to keep it in the I-78 to I-84 corridor W to WNW of BNL on a similar latitude band.

This. You can't compare a location with a more northern latitude.

[IrishRob17]

This. You can't compare a location with a more northern latitude.

Not if you're looking strictly at totals.  I believe you can though once you go past that and get into percentages, standard deviations, etc.  Again, there's much more to get into on this topic if one has the time and desire to scratch past the surface.

[Ericjcrash]

Now if the coast can rack it in sun/mon that's staggering. We'll see.

[PB GFI]

You made Pams day.

[uncle W]

can the Ocean temperatures have a roll in this?...is the Gulf stream running further east making the storms track more east also?...

[NortheastPAWx]

The observer must've been on crack between 2003 and 2006. Those totals, especially between 2003-05, should be MUCH higher.

[IsentropicLift]

I'd like to find the ******* poster on Long Island that sold his sole to the Snow God. This isn't even funny anymore.

[bluewave]

can the Ocean temperatures have a roll in this?...is the Gulf stream running further east making the storms track more east also?...

 

Yeah, some recent research raises the possibility of snowstorm enhancement as the Gulf Stream shifted more NW under

weakening AMOC.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/01/25/climate-scientist-why-a-changing-ocean-circulation-could-worsen-east-coast-blizzards/

[uncle W]

Yeah, some recent research raises the possibility of snowstorm enhancement as the Gulf Stream shifted more NW under

weakening AMOC.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/01/25/climate-scientist-why-a-changing-ocean-circulation-could-worsen-east-coast-blizzards/

it seems like storms moved to far south and east for Albany...years ago Albany would get plasted while NYC gets mostly rain...

[bluewave]

it seems like storms moved to far south and east for Albany...years ago Albany would get plasted while NYC gets mostly rain...

 

This year was really extreme for our area vs Albany. This must be the first time that JFK beat Albany 

by 30 inches of snow in a single season. I wonder what the odds are for such an extreme event?

 

http://www.weather.gov/media/aly/Climate/ALY_Seasonal_Snowfall_Totals.pdf

 

JFK.....40.9"

ALB....10.3"

[snywx]

Is there any way to get the official measurements of FWN, SWF, MGJ, POU or even DXR for the last 15 yrs. Many places within 50 NW of the city have been averaging a good amount above their long term avg. Im almost certain places along the Hudson Highlands in eastern O.C ( Monroe, Highland Mills, Harirman) are averaging 60-65" in the same time frame.

[IrishRob17]

Is there any way to get the official measurements of FWN, SWF, MGJ, POU or even DXR for the last 15 yrs. Many places within 50 NW of the city have been averaging a good amount above their long term avg. Im almost certain places along the Hudson Highlands in eastern O.C ( Monroe, Highland Mills, Harirman) are averaging 60-65" in the same time frame.

Like we've discussed before, aside from POU that has some data I'm not aware of any official data aside from our own records and we know that home records are all not created equal.  And I still say that you have to get past season totals and get into percentages of normal and standard deviations.  We need an intern, LOL  

[snywx]

Like we've discussed before, aside from POU that has some data I'm not aware of any official data aside from our own records and we know that home records are all not created equal.  And I still say that you have to get past season totals and get into percentages of normal and standard deviations.  We need an intern, LOL  

 

Yeah kind of surprised SWF doesn't have one considering the recent uptick in activity there. Regardless I think most of us know that area mentioned earlier ( Hudson Highlands) is an absolute snow magnet and has been since I can remember.

[chietanen]

Yeah kind of surprised SWF doesn't have one considering the recent uptick in activity there. Regardless I think most of us know that area mentioned earlier ( Hudson Highlands) is an absolute snow magnet and has been since I can remember.

Broadly painting Scranton as representative of the "interior" is being very generous, especially since it's not even part of the sub forum.

[snywx]

Broadly painting Scranton as representative of the "interior" is being very generous, especially since it's not even part of the sub forum.

 

Exactly.. 

[Guest Pamela]

AVP (Avoca) is in a high valley....elevation 930 feet.  Their mean was usually around 50 inches.  They were often too far west to profit from typical Hatteras to the Benchmark tracks...much of their snow would come from Alberta Clippers and even weak lows tracking through the Great Lakes and into the St Lawrence Valley...storms that would put down 2 or 3 inches...but would be only be flurries at the coast due to the downsloping off the Kittatinnies...they also would get some rotting lake effect....and lastly, would do rather well with coastal huggers (Norfolk to Kennedy Airport) tracks.  All these potential circumstances have been notoriously inconspicuous in recent times relative to the old normal.   

[easternsnowman]

AVP (Avoca) is in a high valley....elevation 930 feet.  Their mean was usually around 50 inches.  They were often too far west to profit from typical Hatteras to the Benchmark tracks...much of their snow would come from Alberta Clippers and even weak lows tracking through the Great Lakes and into the St Lawrence Valley...storms that would put down 2 or 3 inches...but would be only be flurries at the coast due to the downsloping off the Kittatinnies...they also would get some rotting lake effect....and lastly, would do rather well with coastal huggers (Norfolk to Kennedy Airport) tracks.  All these potential circumstances have been notoriously inconspicuous in recent times relative to the old normal.   

I know that north of Scranton that is northern Lackawanna county Wayne and Susquehanna counties all average a few degrees cooler and usually much more snow than the Avoca airport.

[TwcMan]

I know that north of Scranton that is northern Lackawanna county Wayne and Susquehanna counties all average a few degrees cooler and usually much more snow than the Avoca airport.

My grandfather lived in new Milford PA, he always ended up with much more snow than Scranton did.

[JBG]

I'm almost certain that AVP got more snow in 03-04, 04-05 and 05-06.

05'-'06 was thrown off by the February 11 storm. And if anything climate change would cut the other way, in favor of AVP.  I think blocking, which is cyclical, favors Long Island. Think 1950's into early 1960's.

[Rjay]

05'-'06 was thrown off by the February 11 storm.

Was it thrown off in your opinion bc of the storm itself in a mild winter or bc KNYC's high total?

If it's #1 I disagree. If it's #2 maybe I can go along with that.

[JBG]

Was it thrown off in your opinion bc of the storm itself in a mild winter or bc KNYC's high total?

If it's #1 I disagree. If it's #2 maybe I can go along with that.

Both. I think KISP did well with that storm. Not as well as KNYC but well enough to distort the numbers vis a vis Wilkes-Barre.

[nzucker]

I know that north of Scranton that is northern Lackawanna county Wayne and Susquehanna counties all average a few degrees cooler and usually much more snow than the Avoca airport.

We have a house in northern Wayne County at 1600'. The average annual snowfall is estimated in the 70-75" range, so about two feet higher than Scranton due to latitude and elevation. A lot of clippers and rotting lake effect produce significantly more at our place than AVP. Mt. Ararat, the highest point in the area at 2657', must average close to 90" per season.

The area has seen very little snow in recent years. Only 10-20" has fallen in that region this season, which must be a record. The suburbs of NYC did just as well or better in 15-16, 13-14, 10-11, and 09-10, which was unheard of when I was younger.